Q+A: Sir Lockwood Smith interviewed by Corin Dann
Q+A: Sir Lockwood Smith interviewed by
Corin
Dann
Former
High Commissioner on Britain’s shock election
result
New Zealand’s election result is unlikely to be as shocking or as surprising as Britain’s, according to our former High Commissioner to the UK Sir Lockwood Smith.
Speaking on TVNZ’s Q+A this morning, Sir Lockwood told Corin Dann younger voters angry about Brexit were a key reason Britain’s Labour party did so well in Friday’s vote.
“The younger people didn’t want to leave the EU and so this was a chance for them to express their frustration at that and they’ve done that. I think it’s quite a complex set of issues,” he said.
“I don’t see the parallels at all in New Zealand. We’ve come through the global financial crisis in far better shape than European countries, and we (NZ) never had to cut spending.”
He said issues like student debt and housing affordability were felt much more acutely in the UK.
He would not offer his former National MPs advice ahead of New Zealand’s election on September 23 but did say: “One thing the (UK) election does show is snap elections are dangerous. And number two, you have to campaign.”
Sir Lockwood Smith was New Zealand High Commissioner to the United Kingdom for three years before stepping down earlier this year.
Q + A
Episode
1714
LOCKWOOD
SMITH
Interviewed by CORIN
DANN
CORIN Thank you very much,
Greg. Good morning to Sir Lockwood Smith. Thank you very
much for joining us. Of course, our former High
Commissioner, I should say, to the UK. Are you shocked by
this result? You were in the UK reasonably recently. Was
there any hint that Theresa May would
struggle?
LOCKWOOD The
snap election was always going to be a risk. You know, they
are. Snap elections – you can never predict exactly the
outcome. But I must say I was surprised by just how badly
the campaign went. And I think towards the end of the
campaign that became the main issue – just how badly it
was being
run.
CORIN So, you
know Theresa
May.
LOCKWOOD Yeah,
I made a point of getting to know her and I’d meet her
occasionally even
socially.
CORIN So
what went wrong? Why do you think she misjudged this so
badly?
LOCKWOOD Poor
advice, I think, and also underestimated the opposition. I
mean the credibility of the Labour opposition was not seen
as being strong. Jeremy Corbyn was not seen as a strong
opponent and I think they therefore underestimated the need
to run a good campaign. Any election, a party must run a
good campaign, and she
didn’t.
CORIN Do
you think she can hang on? Is she the type of person who
will try and fight this out and scrap and push away those
trying to take her
job?
LOCKWOOD She’s
tough. I mean, she proved that at the Home Office. As Home
Secretary she demonstrated how tough she is and she is
strong. I think what’s happened since the result’s been
seen – her two really crucial advisors, Nick Timothy and
Fiona Hill, her joint chiefs of staff, have stepped down. I
think that had to happen because clearly they’ve been
hugely involved in her government, almost more powerful than
most senior cabinet ministers, and I made a point of getting
to know them
too.
CORIN And
they’re gone, right? As of
today?
LOCKWOOD And
they’re gone, and that’s demonstrating that there will
be a change in how she leads the government now. Where
it’s been very central control in the past, I think
ministers are going to have to have much more influence if
she’s to
survive.
CORIN Do
you think it is viable? Should she stand
down?
LOCKWOOD She’s
a—She was an effective Prime Minister and there’s
no—You know, obviously she’s got to rebuild her
credibility, but if she can do that, there’s no reason why
she has to stand down. She was an effective Prime
Minister.
CORIN Do
you think the likes of Boris Johnson will look to try and
take her
job?
LOCKWOOD Someday
Boris, I mean, is an obvious contender. He’s a very smart
guy and a very effective politician. A lot of people
underestimate his intellect. There’s no shortage of grey
matter up top with Boris, and one day—Obviously it’s a
matter of when, and it’s not necessarily going to be in
the near future. Boris needs to build his credibility
too.
CORIN For this
government to survive they have to rely on the Northern
Irish DUP, which has a pretty big track record as something,
homophobic, pretty conservative party. Is that going to
work?
LOCKWOOD Obviously,
you know, we’ve proven in New Zealand here that you can
get strange bedfellows that can work in government. We’ve
seen that in New Zealand, and so it’s possible and I think
they need to make it work. The DUP will only have a limited
number of members involved, and I think they’ve got to be
a bit
realistic.
CORIN What’s
their price,
though?
LOCKWOOD Yeah,
well, they’ve got to be a bit realistic about that price,
and, I mean, if they push that too hard, the thing’s going
to not work
well.
CORIN But do
you think this will lead obviously to a more instable
government over a longer period of time in the UK? So
what’s the flow-on effect for Europe, for Brexit? It’s
hugely
unstable.
LOCKWOOD The
longer-term effects are interesting because what it’s done
– it’s cemented Jeremy Corbyn in as the leader of the
Labour Party, someone who’s generally perceived over in
the UK as unelectable. So in some ways, it’s kind of given
the Conservatives a stronger-looking
future.
CORIN And
how much do you think it is about him – Jeremy Corbyn –
or his ideas, his policies? I mean, he is a revert to, I
guess, an old-fashioned form of socialism that has now got a
huge amount of
credibility.
LOCKWOOD Believe
it or not, I’ve been at Labour Party conferences there in
the UK because I used to attend both major conferences, and
I’ve heard him speak. He uses that whole language. I’ve
heard him talk about ‘comrades’ and, you know, old
unionist-type language. And sure, there’s been a bit of a
surge for that sort of thing, but I think it’s more
complex than just a hankering for those old
times.
CORIN But a
lot of young voters– It resonated with a lot of young
voters. He talked in that clip at the start about hope, and
I wonder if he has got onto something there. He’s offering
younger voters in a Western democracy who feel shut out
genuine
hope.
LOCKWOOD I
think those younger voters were also quite grumpy about
Brexit. The younger people didn’t want to leave the EU and
so this was a chance for them to express their frustration
at that and they’ve done that. I think it’s quite a
complex set of issues. Of course, also in the UK, austerity
has been far, far more severe than in New Zealand here.
Government spending has been actually cut in the UK and
that’s been felt quite
hard.
CORIN So you
don’t see those parallels, perhaps, in New
Zealand?
LOCKWOOD I
don’t see the parallels at all in New Zealand. We’ve
come through the global financial crisis in far better shape
than European countries, and we never had to cut
spending.
CORIN There
are obviously a lot of students with big student loan debt.
You’d know all about that, having been a former Education
Minister. But also the housing issue – there are some
parallels there, aren’t
there?
LOCKWOOD Believe
me, it’s just so much better than in the UK and Europe.
Students pay far, far more in the UK and so that
dissatisfaction among young people is very real there and
Brexit was the trigger. They didn’t want that outcome and
so they’ve voiced their frustration with that at this snap
election.
CORIN What
do you think it means in terms of New Zealand’s
positioning for a free trade agreement with the UK in terms
of Brexit? Is this going to delay the Brexit negotiations,
do you
think?
LOCKWOOD It
shouldn’t necessarily, no. There’s a two-year timeframe
in which those have got to be negotiated and I think this
government, the Theresa May government will push on with
that. I think they’ve got their mind—They were pretty
cohesive prior to this snap election. The key ministers –
David Davis, Boris, Liam Fox, Theresa May herself – were
really very cohesive around the strategy they were pursuing.
I think they will get back to that.
CORIN
Will that still be that idea of a hard Brexit,
where it’s just a clean break, pretty
much?
LOCKWOOD
It has to be. Because if they tried to, for
example, stay in the Customs Union with the EU, there are no
wins out of it. Why would you leave the EU and remain in the
Customs Union? You can’t win that way. The only way the UK
can really win out of leaving the EU is being able to
develop its own global trade strategy, get its own control
back over its immigration policy and get its own control
again over its own regulatory system. And they’ve got to
proceed with that if they’re going to win out of leaving
the EU, otherwise why leave? You’re better off in.
CORIN So, what
does a country like New Zealand do? What’s our best
strategy here? Do we just quietly work behind the scenes and
make sure we’re ready when they’re
ready?
LOCKWOOD That’s
what we’re doing, and we work quite closely with them,
very much involved with the development of their global
trade strategy. And we’ll keep working on that. We’ve
got a trade dialogue going with them, because our first
priority at the moment is our FTA with the EU, and we want
to get that launched this year. But then we want to be one
of the first cabs off the rank with the UK as well when
they’re able to negotiate trade agreements once they’ve
left the EU, and so a lot of work behind the
scenes.
CORIN Coming
back just to the campaign, I wonder, have you got any sort
of words of advice for your former National Party colleagues
about campaigns and about what’s gone on in the UK and
anything like that?
LOCKWOOD
Never. I’m no longer a politician and don’t
offer any such advice. Although one thing the election does
show as a snap elections are dangerous. They can produce
really perverse results. And number two, you have to
campaign. And Theresa May, I think we have seen, standing
back, not getting into the campaign, not engaging.
CORIN What was the thinking behind that
strategy?
LOCKWOOD I
suppose it was that they felt they had such a huge lead that
she didn’t want to engage with someone who she thought --
Jeremy Corbyn -- had such little credibility. She sent
Amber Rudd along to one of the debates. You don’t do that.
That’s insulting to the peoples – the voting public to
say, ‘We don’t care enough, and therefore, I’m not
going to go and debate.’ That never goes down
well.
CORIN In your
view, it’s a complex picture and you don’t think Labour
here should be emboldened by this?
LOCKWOOD I mean,
elections are always unpredictable, but this particular
situation in the UK was very complex – Scotland, so
different from what was going on around parts of the UK, and
you look at the different results happening in different
places. I think you’ve mentioned the one compelling thing,
and that is the influence of the young people, who were very
frustrated about Brexit and other issues as
well.
CORIN Sir
Lockwood Smith, thank you very much for your time. We do
appreciate it on Q +
A.
LOCKWOOD Thank
you.