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Roy Morgan - Labour/Greens now just ahead of National

Roy Morgan New Zealand July Update

In July Labour/Greens now just ahead of National but New Zealand First again in the ‘box seat’

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down slightly in July to 125.4


In July Labour/Greens now just ahead of National but New Zealand First again in the ‘box seat’

In July Labour/Greens now just ahead of National but New Zealand First again in the ‘box seat’


In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.
The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.
Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.
Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5%.
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating up in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 5pts to 139.5pts in July with 63% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 23.5% of NZ electors (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says this year’s New Zealand Election is on a knife’s edge and New Zealand First are likely to decide the Government:
“New Zealand’s Election in two months is now too close to call with governing National falling to 43% in July (down 3.5%) now just behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance on 44% (up 4.5%). This month’s tight result means New Zealand First with 8% support (down 1%), led by maverick MP Winston Peters, are once again in the box seat to determine which parties form Government.
“The drop in support for National follows the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay – forced to step down as a candidate at the forthcoming election after it emerged he had secretly recorded staffers in his office. Questions have been raised about Prime Minister Bill English’s leadership given his handling of the situation.
“The open squabbling this week between potential governing partners the Greens and New Zealand First after Greens MP Barry Coates suggested the Greens would find a Labour-New Zealand First Government ‘unacceptable’ and potentially force a new election shows the instability that may await New Zealand in the wake of a close election result. Coates’ comments also strengthen National’s negotiating hand with New Zealand First.
“In contrast to the political gamesmanship in Wellington, New Zealanders aren’t interested in the political intrigue and a recent Roy Morgan New Zealand Issues survey shows Economic issues, including Poverty and the gap between rich and poor, mentioned by 26.7% of New Zealanders, House prices and Housing affordability (13.7%) and Housing shortages and Homelessness (9.6%) are the major issues voters want the parties to address to win their votes.


ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down slightly in July to 125.4

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down slightly in July to 125.4


SUMMARY
Consumer sentiment eased in July, but remains at a strong level overall.
Once we adjusted for seasonality, confidence lifted to the highest level since September 2014.
Both point to a healthy pace of spending-based activity.
House price expectations cooled further, especially in Auckland.
Consumer sentiment still had a spring in its step in July. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased from 127.8 to 125.4; that’s still the second highest result in the past five months. It also remains well above its long-run average of 119. Once we adjust for the seasonality at this time of year as the cooler months often bring the same for sentiment, the index rose one point to its highest level since September 2014.


In terms of the details, the Current Conditions Index fell 4 points to 124.9 while Future Conditions dipped 1 point to 125.8. Again, the story was stronger in seasonally adjusted terms, with current conditions only falling 2 points and future conditions rising 3.
Consumers’ view of their own financial position tip-toed from +14 to +10. Views regarding their own financial situation in 12 months’ time were little changed at +32 (+33 previously).
A net 39% believe it’s a good time to buy a major household item. That’s down from 45% in June but still high.
Perceptions towards the economic outlook remain strong. Net optimism towards the economy one year out dipped from +25 to +23, which is neither here nor there, and when assessing the five-year economic outlook, optimism held at +23, which is well above the average since 2015.


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