Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

Time to pull our collective heads out of the sand

Time to pull our collective heads out of the sand - 24 August

Yesterday’s release of Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) provides a fairly sobering forecast of our ability to grow wealth in and for New Zealand, say the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

NZMEA Chief Executive, Dieter Adam says, “We have to face the reality of our lack of economic development in New Zealand. And now is the right time to challenge New Zealand’s leading parties to tell us what they are going to do to push our economy towards a more prosperous future for everyone.”

“For the next four years (2018 to 2021) Treasury forecasts a decline in the rate of absolute GDP growth in 2020 and 2021, with a similar decline in the export growth rate, down to just over 2% in 2020 and 2021. By then we’ll be four years away from the current Government’s goal of growing the share of exports to GDP to 40%, and further away from reaching that goal than ever.

“These observations sit alongside our own, and Statistics New Zealand’s data on exports of elaborately transformed goods, which have been in decline for the past 18 months or so.

“Treasury’s forecasts for the increase in GDP, as modest as they may be, are still based largely on a growth of labour inputs due to immigration for 2018. After that, miraculously, labour productivity will take over as the main driver of GDP growth. When it comes to explaining what this expectation is based on, given that for the last three years, for example, we saw virtually no productivity growth in our economy, the report remains silent, but states that “productivity growth may be slower than assumed if labour inputs grow more strongly than expected” - meaning if the forecast drop in immigration numbers doesn’t eventuate.

“So, what have we actually got here? An economy projected to grow at modest rates overall, especially in the second half of the outlook period (2020 to 2021), and growth rates for Real GDP per capita, the real measure of wealth creation, of 1.2% and 1.0% in the same period. And all of that based on a miraculous increase in labour productivity from around zero currently to between 1.5% and 1.8% from 2019 onwards.

“We suggest it is time we have a serious debate on how we can sustainably improve our ability to grow wealth in this country. Growing wealth, so we have more money to pay for a better health system, better education, and other public services. You can’t do that if most of the growth in your economy comes from immigration, or when many people’s perception of increased wealth comes from rising asset prices fuelled by ever-increasing private debt.

“Growth in wealth comes from growing the output per hour worked – and that, as the late Sir Paul Callaghan kept reminding us, will only happen if we achieve growth in those sectors of our economy that produce and export high-value products and services. Our manufacturers, together with other sectors of our productive economy, stand ready to contribute. It’s about time the major political parties did their bit by making this a key focus of their efforts” says Dieter.

ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Another Reason To Loathe HR Departments (And On The Teachers Strike)

This morning’s news item about Police emergency call centre staff turning up for work while they’re sick – because they’re afraid their sick leave statistics will be used against them, and their jobs put in jeopardy – is not an isolated case...

Obviously, sick people shouldn’t be being treated by doctors and nurses who are themselves sick and potentially infectious. Similarly, Police emergency calls also need to be fielded by people who’re feeling alert, and on top of their game. More>>

 
 

MPs' Computers To Be Searched: Inquiry Into Leak On Simon Bridges' Expenses

An inquiry has been launched to find out who leaked the National Party's expenses to the media... Parliament's speaker, Trevor Mallard, said a Queen's Counsel would lead the inquiry with the help of an employment lawyer and also someone with forensic IT skills. More>>

ALSO:

Teachers Strike: Nationwide Rallies And Marches

Teachers and principals voted for a full day strike to be held on 15 August to send a strong message to the Government that the current collective agreement offers from the Ministry of Education would not fix the crisis in teaching. More>>

ALSO:

Wellington.Scoop: City Council Ends Its Support For Jackson’s Movie Museum

The Wellington City Council and the Movie Museum Limited have today announced a mutually-agreed parting of the ways for a joint project between the Council’s Convention Centre and TMML’s Movie Museum... Both parties remain optimistic for the future of their respective projects. More>>

Pay Equity: Historic Settlement For Education Support Workers

The New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) and the Ministry of Education today signed Terms of Settlement to address a pay equity claim for 329 support workers who work with very young children in early childhood and primary schools. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Stereotypes About Jacinda Ardern

Routinely, female politicians get depicted as either show ponies or battle axes, with little room for anything else in between. .. More>>

Weekend Interviews: "Discriminatory And Racist" Aussie Deportations

The former president of Australia’s Human Rights Commission Gillian Triggs says deportations have risen dramatically in Australia since 2014 when ministers and ministerial delegates were given the power to cancel visas - and half of those being deported are New Zealanders. "These are massive numbers, actually escalating dramatically."... More>>

ALSO:

Legal Challenge: Prisoner Has 9 Boxes Of Documents Seized

Human rights organisation People Against Prisons Aotearoa says a prisoner they advocate for has had 9 boxes of legal documents seized from him just days before his case against the Department of Corrections was to be heard. More>>

Single-Use Plastic Bags: Govt To Phase Them Out

Single-use plastic shopping bags will be phased out over the next year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage announced today. More>>

ALSO:

 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

Featured InfoPages