Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

Time to pull our collective heads out of the sand

Time to pull our collective heads out of the sand - 24 August

Yesterday’s release of Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) provides a fairly sobering forecast of our ability to grow wealth in and for New Zealand, say the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

NZMEA Chief Executive, Dieter Adam says, “We have to face the reality of our lack of economic development in New Zealand. And now is the right time to challenge New Zealand’s leading parties to tell us what they are going to do to push our economy towards a more prosperous future for everyone.”

“For the next four years (2018 to 2021) Treasury forecasts a decline in the rate of absolute GDP growth in 2020 and 2021, with a similar decline in the export growth rate, down to just over 2% in 2020 and 2021. By then we’ll be four years away from the current Government’s goal of growing the share of exports to GDP to 40%, and further away from reaching that goal than ever.

“These observations sit alongside our own, and Statistics New Zealand’s data on exports of elaborately transformed goods, which have been in decline for the past 18 months or so.

“Treasury’s forecasts for the increase in GDP, as modest as they may be, are still based largely on a growth of labour inputs due to immigration for 2018. After that, miraculously, labour productivity will take over as the main driver of GDP growth. When it comes to explaining what this expectation is based on, given that for the last three years, for example, we saw virtually no productivity growth in our economy, the report remains silent, but states that “productivity growth may be slower than assumed if labour inputs grow more strongly than expected” - meaning if the forecast drop in immigration numbers doesn’t eventuate.

“So, what have we actually got here? An economy projected to grow at modest rates overall, especially in the second half of the outlook period (2020 to 2021), and growth rates for Real GDP per capita, the real measure of wealth creation, of 1.2% and 1.0% in the same period. And all of that based on a miraculous increase in labour productivity from around zero currently to between 1.5% and 1.8% from 2019 onwards.

“We suggest it is time we have a serious debate on how we can sustainably improve our ability to grow wealth in this country. Growing wealth, so we have more money to pay for a better health system, better education, and other public services. You can’t do that if most of the growth in your economy comes from immigration, or when many people’s perception of increased wealth comes from rising asset prices fuelled by ever-increasing private debt.

“Growth in wealth comes from growing the output per hour worked – and that, as the late Sir Paul Callaghan kept reminding us, will only happen if we achieve growth in those sectors of our economy that produce and export high-value products and services. Our manufacturers, together with other sectors of our productive economy, stand ready to contribute. It’s about time the major political parties did their bit by making this a key focus of their efforts” says Dieter.

ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Election Day Results

National won 46% of the vote with Labour on 35.8%. NZ First won 7.5%, with the Greens on 5.8%. ACT held on to Epsom, but failed to get more MPs. The Maori Party were wiped out of Parliament.

There are still special votes to be counted, but clearly National is in the box seat to form the next Government.

The Greens can not contemplate a deal with National. So, Winston Peters will have to make a choice and could back National or a combined Labour/Green coalition. Full preliminary results >>

 

Lyndon Hood: Election Lists

While the ship of state is listing, so I thought I would make some lists as well. More>>

ALSO:

Targetting: ACC’s Computer-Aided Decision-Making Questioned

University of Otago researchers are warning of the potential pitfalls in government departments using computer-based risk prediction models, as has been recently revealed through a controversial new tool used by the ACC... More>>

ALSO:

From The Hood: The Campaign Strategist’s Lament

"This election is a chance to really work the record of what nine years of National-led government has done to improve the country for everyone. Or will do. Another three years, maybe six. Thirty-three years, tops. You don’t want to risk that, do you? More>>

PSA Report: National Gets An ‘F’ For Health Funding

"Seeing National’s record on health collected in one place is quite sobering - it’s clear that underfunding is having dire consequences on both patients and staff, who are having to do more than ever with less," says Glenn Barclay, PSA national secretary. More>>

ALSO:

Children With Disabilities: Education Crisis Unaddressed

In 2008 IHC lodged its complaint against the on-going failure of New Zealand Governments and the Ministry of Education to ensure that disabled children access a quality education on an equal basis to others in New Zealand schools. More>>

Gordon Campbell: Ten Reasons For Not Voting National

if anyone you know is thinking of voting National in Saturday’s election, there’s still time for an intervention. You owe it to your friends and relations to intercede. Because there’s plenty of evidence on National’s mediocre-to-awful track record over its nine years in power. We can’t afford another three years of drift. More>>

ALSO:

Suffrage Day: PSA National Secretaries Vote For Equal Pay

PSA national secretaries Erin Polaczuk and Glenn Barclay are advance voting for the 2017 election alongside their daughters, with equal pay and fairness in mind on the 124th anniversary of women’s suffrage in New Zealand. More>>

ALSO:

Charge Protests: Dairy Farms Use Same Amount Of Water As 60 Million People

Using Dairy NZ numbers, economist Peter Fraser and agricultural consultant Dr Alison Dewes calculate the water consumption of New Zealand dairy farms is equivalent to the residential use of 60 million people. More>>

ALSO:

 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

Featured InfoPages

Opening the Election