Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


The Election With Many Victors Ends And Now We Wait

The Election With Many Victors Ends And Now We Wait

INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS - NZ has to wait and see what form the next Govt takes after the weekend’s election.

In some ways this was an election of many victors. It was a personal triumph for Bill English, banishing the demons of 2002 and running a strong campaign with National remarkably exceeding the levels of support it had when it came into office in 2008.

Jacinda Ardern transformed Labour’s fortunes. Until she came to power Labour’s phone to the voters was “off the hook” and the party was stumbling to election humiliation. It is now once again a credible political force. Winston Peters is yet another winner as he is now the PM maker.

The most likely outcome is National forming a Govt with NZ First or with its support. However, this is not a certainty and Peters may consider backing Labour in some sort of arrangement. This would be a more complex undertaking and some would argue a Govt which ignores the wishes of 46% of voters will lack moral authority. However, moral authority and a majority in Parliament are not the same thing and it is the majority which commands power in the House.

Special declaration votes still to be counted are estimated at 384,072 (15% of total votes). The final results are due on Oct 7. In recent elections, special votes have resulted in National losing an MP and the Greens and/or Labour gaining one. This is possible, but unlikely this will change the process of Govt formation.

If past trends are repeated it may make the prospect of Labour/Green Govt more tempting to Peters as it would move away from the narrowest of majorities in Parliament – 61 – to something with a little more wiggle room.

Exploratory talks will begin this week and Peters has learnt from experience voters do not have patience with excessively prolonged negotiations.

Mention also must be made of the election’s biggest losers.

The Greens will consider their survival a small victory, but they started the campaign with the hopes of increasing their party share to 15% or even 20%. They barely survived and their members’ refusal to even flirt with National means they could face the humiliation of being shut out of Govt and being forced to support a Labour/NZ First Govt in exchange for a few policy crumbs.

The Maori Party are the worst victims, they find themselves out of Parliament and it is a difficult place to get back into once a party has been rejected. It’s fall meant English could not celebrate a potential election night majority. It also meant Labour lost a potential ally.

It is a reminder of how being in Govt can often crush smaller parties. However, some in National will look at being in Govt with NZ First as a similar problem. No major party has ever survived being in Govt with NZ First. National in 1996 and Labour in 2005 were both thrown out of office at the next election.

Right now, only one party is assured of being in Govt - it is NZ First, with its 7.5% support. Is this the result NZ really wanted?
For analysis and further updates see this week’s edition of the Trans Tasman Political Alert


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Teachers Strike: Nationwide Rallies And Marches

Teachers and principals voted for a full day strike to be held on 15 August to send a strong message to the Government that the current collective agreement offers from the Ministry of Education would not fix the crisis in teaching.

"There needs to be better investment in education so every child can reach their potential and we have enough teachers for every class", said NZEI Te Riu Roa lead principal negotiator Louise Green. More>>


Wellington.Scoop: City Council Ends Its Support For Jackson’s Movie Museum

The Wellington City Council and the Movie Museum Limited have today announced a mutually-agreed parting of the ways for a joint project between the Council’s Convention Centre and TMML’s Movie Museum... Both parties remain optimistic for the future of their respective projects. More>>

Pay Equity: Historic Settlement For Education Support Workers

The New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) and the Ministry of Education today signed Terms of Settlement to address a pay equity claim for 329 support workers who work with very young children in early childhood and primary schools. More>>


Gordon Campbell: On The Stereotypes About Jacinda Ardern

Routinely, female politicians get depicted as either show ponies or battle axes, with little room for anything else in between. .. More>>

Weekend Interviews: "Discriminatory And Racist" Aussie Deportations

The former president of Australia’s Human Rights Commission Gillian Triggs says deportations have risen dramatically in Australia since 2014 when ministers and ministerial delegates were given the power to cancel visas - and half of those being deported are New Zealanders. "These are massive numbers, actually escalating dramatically."... More>>


Legal Challenge: Prisoner Has 9 Boxes Of Documents Seized

Human rights organisation People Against Prisons Aotearoa says a prisoner they advocate for has had 9 boxes of legal documents seized from him just days before his case against the Department of Corrections was to be heard. More>>

Single-Use Plastic Bags: Govt To Phase Them Out

Single-use plastic shopping bags will be phased out over the next year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage announced today. More>>


Lesser Politicians: ACT Conference Promises Fewer Politicians

Party Leader David Seymour today revealed his Smaller Government Bill which will reduce the size of Parliament to 100 MPs, limit the size of the Executive to 20 Ministers, and remove the Maori seats. More>>





Featured InfoPages