Free Press 9/10/17
Free Press
ACT’s regular
bulletin
A Big Thank
You
This fortnight we are touring the country.
Our members, supporters, candidates and donors who put so
much into ACT’s campaign deserve thanks. By the numbers,
we stood 41 candidates, delivered 580,000 addressed direct
mail letters to the letterbox, raised over $850,000 and
reached 400,000 people per week on social media. ACT now
remains one of only five parties in
parliament.
So, What Happened?
Even
opponents accept that we ran a technically good campaign.
There were no scandals or obvious mistakes, yet we did not
get the party votes. A partial explanation is that all
smaller parties suffered. Minor party support went from 28
per cent down to 17 per cent, not a good time to grow a
small party. United Future, gone. Maori Party, gone. Greens,
halved. New Zealand First lost their only electorate seat
and a quarter of their support. Too many people (wrongly)
thought that they had to vote National to keep Labour
out.
So, What Happens Next?
We must
accept that, while we got some things right, ACT’s
approach has not worked. After our national tour the ACT
Board will be surveying the membership and formulating a
plan for the next three years that builds on the things
we’ve got right and changes the things we’ve got wrong.
If you are not a member and would like a stake in this
project, you can join here: http://www.act.org.nz/join
Why
Not Government?
Innumerate journalists have
reported that ACT will not be in Government because Bill
English/Winston Peters do not want ACT in Government. They
are even reporting that Bill English ‘told’ David
Seymour he would not be in Government. No such thing
happened. It was obvious on election night that no possible
coalition would require ACT for a majority. No coalition
that already has a majority has ever shared power and
resources just for the hell of it, so ACT is out of
Government due to simple arithmetic and laws of politics.
Sadly, with only a few exceptions, this is the state of New
Zealand journalism.
What About
Epsom?
Various predictions have been made, but
the following facts remain true: 1) Epsom voters on the left
and right regard David Seymour as a good local MP. 2) His
majority increased by a healthy 1300 votes this election. 3)
Epsom voters get the logic: electing a National MP would
mean one more National electorate MP, one fewer National
list MPs, and only one centre-right party in under a system
that always requires coalitions. With that in mind David
Seymour will now be working even harder to increase his
majority again in 2020.
Career Defining
Decision
James Shaw is a nice guy. He needs 75
per cent of the Green membership to ratify a deal with
National. Shaw should write to his membership and say: “I
have spoken to Bill English, he is prepared to make me
Minister of Climate Change with a mandate to pass a carbon
neutral 2050 Act like they have in the UK (the wets in
National would love this). This will be our first
achievement after 20 years in parliament. It will also
position us as the real power broker in parliament, able to
break left or right. If you don’t want to ratify this
deal, don’t call me, because I’ll be back in London with
a different number, and you guys will have another 20 years
to think it over.”
A Credible
Threat
The first thing students learn about Game
Theory is that threats must be credible. Shaw’s threat
would be credible. He is a talented guy with better options
than sitting on the sidelines with angry former communists
in colour-clashed rainbow anoraks who hate National more
than they care about the environment. Sadly for him, we all
know where nice guys finish. He has missed a big
chance.
Winston's Number One Enemy
ACT
is Winston's number one enemy. We intend to continue to
oppose Winston's reckless populism and predict that while
Winston may be our enemy we are about to gain many new
friends. Every other party is courting Winston so it falls
on us to let you know what is really going on. This is the
latest.
What Winston Wants
The only
thing Winston has never had is to be immortalised, and that
requires being PM. Most Free Press readers can tell
you that Norman Kirk was Prime Minister, but who was his
Deputy? (Hint, not Bill Rowling who is known because he
became PM). The coalition that offers him the Prime
Ministership will form the government.
It Makes
Sense
Winston will drop all his bottom lines for
the baubles of the ninth floor. Nearly half of his bizarre
manifesto, more promises than any other party, were for
Northland. For some reason Winston no longer cares whether
Northland ever gets another bridge.
What is the
Prime Ministership?
Actually the position of
Prime Minister carries very little power. The Prime
Minister's office is tiny, the Prime Minister is in charge
of the Cabinet Office which just handles the paperwork for
the cabinet and has no power. The PM is usually in charge
of the SIS and The GCSB but the truth is we have no secrets.
You learn more watching CNN. The Minister of Internal
Affairs has a bigger budget and more real power. The PM
chairs Cabinet and the power comes from allocating
portfolios. Under a coalition the parties would agree on
the portfolios. This would mean the Prime Minister would
really be just the front man for the government.
A
Show Boater
David Lange was a show captain. The
real power was with ACT co-founder Roger Douglas. Winston
has always just been a show.
It Makes
Sense
Press conferences by Prime Minister
Winston Peters would be a hit. Jacinda has no experience.
Her Captain’s Call on tax has shaken her colleagues.
Winston has over forty years’ experience. Her front bench
who would do anything for a ministerial car are willing to
trade her for the Beehive.
National will do
Anything
The only thing that holds National
together is the belief that they were born to rule. While
Bill is raising objections that he won the election the rest
of the Cabinet thinks to keep office Bill should become
Foreign Minister. National now needs Minister of Maori
Affairs and who better than Shane Jones? Steven Joyce would
run the Government like he does now, so where is the
problem?
A Slight Problem
Winston is
showing his age. He filled out no fewer than nine false
declarations when claiming his super. The Ministry of
Social Development tries to make the forms easy for the
elderly so it cannot have been easy to get it wrong. As his departing MP has revealed, Winston's
behavior is increasingly
odd.