New Zealanders say North
Korea will use a nuclear weapon
A special
Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken in late September, after the New
Zealand Election, shows a majority (58%) of New Zealanders
saying it is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly
likely’ (39%) that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon
compared to 42% that say it is ‘Fairly unlikely’ (31%)
or ‘Very unlikely’ (11%).
These
figures are a reverse of the Australian result surveyed in
mid-September which showed 51% of Australians believe it
is ‘Fairly/Very unlikely’ North Korea will use a nuclear
weapon compared to 49% of Australians that say it is
‘Fairly/Very likely’.
The majority of New
Zealanders (78%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean
stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution,a similar result to Australia, and only
22% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working
and a military one is needed.
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This special Roy Morgan SMS
Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section
of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.
Questions:
“In your opinion how likely is it that North
Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were
then asked “Which of these two options would you
support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing
nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a
peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic
solution is not working; a military one is
needed?”
Analysis by Voting Preference: Q1
– North Korea using a nuclear weapon
Analysing
the results by voting preference shows a majority of
supporters of the major parties National, Labour and New
Zealand First think it likely North Korea will use a nuclear
weapon whereas a slight majority of Greens supporters think
it is unlikely.
Total NZ
Electors
Labour
National
NZ
First
Greens
Other
Can’t
say
Non Electors
Total
Australia
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Very
likely
19
19
28
15
16
15
12
30
15
16
Fairly
likely
39
38
31
45
44
31
35
46
30
33
Total
likely
58
57
59
60
60
46
47
76
45
49
Fairly
unlikely
31
33
32
31
22
41
36
21
36
33
Very
unlikely
11
10
9
9
18
13
17
3
19
18
Total
unlikely
42
43
41
40
40
54
53
24
55
51
TOTAL
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Q2
– Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military
solution
As expected large majorities of
supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful
diplomatic solution rather than a military solution.
Total
NZ
Electors
Labour
National
NZ
First
Greens
Other
Can’t
say
Non
electors
Total
Australia
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Peaceful
78
78
80
75
74
89
63
85
79
81
Military
22
22
20
25
26
11
37
15
21
19
TOTAL
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Analysis
by Gender & Age: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear
weapon
Analysis by gender shows women and men
differ on the tense situation with women much more concerned
than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea
might use nuclear weapons than not whilst it is those aged
35-64 who are most certain North Korea will use a nuclear
weapon with older and younger New Zealanders more evenly
split on the question.
Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military
solution
Large majorities of both genders and all
ages are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather
than a military solution although it is the youngest New
Zealanders, those aged 18-24, who are most pre-disposed to a
potential military solution (32%). Total
New Zealand's leading social and market research company
A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.
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