Thursday, 12 October 2017
New Zealanders say North Korea will use a nuclear weapon
A special Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken in late September, after the New Zealand Election, shows a majority (58%) of New Zealanders saying it is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 42% that say it is ‘Fairly unlikely’ (31%) or ‘Very unlikely’ (11%).
These figures are a reverse of the Australian result surveyed in mid-September which showed 51% of Australians believe it is ‘Fairly/Very unlikely’ North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 49% of Australians that say it is ‘Fairly/Very likely’.
The majority of New Zealanders (78%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution,a similar result to Australia, and only 22% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working and a military one is needed.
This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.
Questions: “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”
Analysis by Voting Preference: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon
Analysing the results by voting preference shows a majority of supporters of the major parties National, Labour and New Zealand First think it likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon whereas a slight majority of Greens supporters think it is unlikely.
|Electors||Labour||National||NZ First||Greens||Other||Can’t say||Non|
Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution
As expected large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution.
|Electors||Labour||National||NZ First||Greens||Other||Can’t say||Non electors||Total|
Analysis by Gender & Age: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon
Analysis by gender shows women and men differ on the tense situation with women much more concerned than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea might use nuclear weapons than not whilst it is those aged 35-64 who are most certain North Korea will use a nuclear weapon with older and younger New Zealanders more evenly split on the question.