Full Release of Digipoll Maori Voter Survey

2nd of October, 2011

TV ONE’s ground breaking Maori current affairs programme has released the results of its pre-election poll this morning during an extended edition of Marae Investigates.

The TVNZ M arae Investigates Digipoll is one the most established voter polls in NZ and often the only one to survey Maori voters in an election year.

“This is the first poll since the formation of the Mana Party and it shows Mana’s arrival has really hit Maori Party support hardest,” says Marae Investigates Executive Producer, Raewyn Rasch .

“There is some good news for the Maori Party and that is voters accept its campaign line that being at the Cabinet table is important. Voters have not agreed with Mana claims that the Maori party lacks energy.

“While Mana has gained support, its party vote at 8.5% was still in fourth position behind National on 16.4%.

“Hone Harawira told Marae Investigates he thought that was a great effort given that not all the Mana candidates have been named. However he admitted he needs to devote more attention to his own electorate after the poll in Te Tai Tokerau showed Labour’s Kelvin Davis narrowly ahead.

“The data shows Labour support is slightly up on the past two Digipolls. However, Phil Goff is nowhere in the preferred Prime Minister stakes polling just over 4% - almost 30 points behind clear front runner John Key.

MARAE INVESTIGATES DIGIPOLL 2011

PLEASE NOTE:

1002 respondents were interviewed between 19 August – 20 September 2011 by phone using Digipoll’s random number dialling technology.

The margin of error for the full sample size is +/- 3.1%.

The margin of error for the 655 respondents on the Maori role is +/- 3.8%.

The sample size for each electorate was less than 100 voters – the electorate results should therefore be treated as indicative only .

1. “Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party. Which political party would you vote for?” Are you on the Maori Electoral Roll or General Electoral Roll? Total
Maori Roll General Roll
Labour 35.7% 43.5% 38.4%
Maori Party 27.7% 11.7% 22.2%
National 13.2% 22.4% 16.4%
Mana 12.0% 1.6% 8.5%
Greens 5.6% 8.1% 6.5%
NZ First 4.1% 7.1% 5.1%
Act 0.0% 2.9% 1.0%
Progressive 0.6% 0.2%
Other (Please state) 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2. Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your Local M.P. When you choose your local M.P., which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from? Total
Maori Roll
Maori Party 37.5%
Labour 35.1%
Mana 13.8%
National 5.6%
Greens 2.5%
NZ First 2.5%
Other (Please state) 2.9%
100.0%
Electorate Vote:
Maori Roll Voters only - these are indicative trends as sample per electorate is small TE TAI TOKERAU Tamaki Makaurau Tainui Te Tai Hauauru Waiariki Ikaroa Rawhiti Te Tai Tonga
Maori Party 22.2% 46.1% 12.9% 48.6% 59.3% 31.6% 34.5%
Labour 30.2% 30.4% 58.8% 40.3% 8.8% 40.5% 41.4%
Mana 28.6% 15.7% 17.6% 1.4% 18.7% 8.9% 3.4%
National 6.3% 2.9% 7.1% 6.9% 4.4% 2.5% 12.1%
Greens 3.2% 3.9% 0.0% 2.2% 2.5% 6.9%
NZ First 0.0% 3.5% 2.8% 10.1% 1.7%
Other (Please state) 9.5% 1.0% 0.0% 6.6% 3.8% 0.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

3 Do you believe the Maori party has represented Maori well? Total

Yes 55.5%
No 34.4%
Don't know/refused 10.1%
100.0%

4 Do you support the Maori Party's decision to vote for the Marine and Coastal Area Bill? Total

Yes 54.3%
No 27.6%
Don't know/refused 18.0%
100.0%

5 Do you accept the Maori Party's position that compromise was worthwhile to ensure they had a seat at the cabinet table Total

Yes 68.6%
No 20.9%
Don't know/refused 10.5%
100.0%

6 Hone Harawira claims the Maori Party lacks energy and its candidates are too old. Do you agree or disagree? Total

Agree 35.3%
Disagree 53.8%
Don't know/refused 10.9%
100.0%

7 Do you think Shane Jones should take over as leader of Labour Party from Phil Goff? Total

Yes 46.7%
No 31.0%
Don't know/refused 22.3%
100.0%

8 Do you believe the traditional Maori voter support for Labour has dropped? Total

Yes 77.4%
No 8.9%
Don't know/refused 13.8%
100.0%

9 Do you believe Hone Harawira can effectively lead the Mana party? Total

Yes 55.2%
No 34.4%
Don't know/refused 10.4%
100.0%

10 Which Maori MP do you believe best represents the view of Maori? Total

Pita Sharples 22.2%
Tariana Turia 19.7%
Hone Harawira 11.1%
Winston Peters 3.8%
Shane Jones 3.6%
Parekura Horomia 3.5%
Nanaia Mahuta 3.1%
Kelvin Davis 2.1%
Rahui Katene 1.5%
Hekia Parata 1.4%
Moana Mackey 0.9%
Tau Henare 0.5%
Georgina te Heuheu 0.5%
Metira Turei 0.3%
Te Ururoa Flavel 0.1%
Other 1.6%
Don't know 18.8%
None 5.5%
100.0%

11 Of all the politicians in NZ, Who is your preferred Prime Minister? Total

John Key 33.1%
Pita Sharples 7.0%
Tariana Turia 4.8%
Phil Goff 4.4%
Hone Harawira 3.9%
Winston Peters 3.7%
Shane Jones 2.8%
Metira Turei 2.0%
Willy Jackson 1.5%
Te Ururoa Flavel 0.4%
Helen Clark 0.6%
Other 4.2%
Don't know 15.7%
None 16.0%
100.0%

Ends

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