iPredict New Zealand Political Update – Shearer Favoured
Wednesday 30 November 2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.ipredict.co.nz

Latest Developments:

* Shearer favoured to be next Labour Leader and become Prime Minister by 1 January 2015
* Flavell set to replace Sharples as Minister Outside Cabinet
* Probability Goff will go to China rises
* Key expected to depart National leadership in 2014 or 2015 with Collins the frontrunner to replace him, followed by Bridges and Joyce

Details:

Labour Party Leadership & Next Prime Minister

Following David Parker's withdrawal from the race and endorsement, David Shearer is now forecast, with 70% probability, to be the next Labour Party Leader. With Labour now having a 57% probability of winning the next election, Mr Shearer is also favoured, with 50% probability, of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015. Labour leadership stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=34 and https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=71 Stocks for the 2014 election can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

Final 2011 Results

National continues to be forecast, with 76% probability, to lose a seat once special votes are counted, taking its caucus down to 59 MPs from the election night 60. The Greens continue to be favoured to take the extra seat which would mean that National would need the support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation, compared with just one of these as indicated on election night. Final seat allocation stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

The Government

The probability the Maori Party will have at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government has fallen below 90%, but is still 89.4% Act and UnitedFuture continue to have more than 90% probability of having at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government. The Green Party has just a 2.5% probability of having a Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government. Stocks on which parties will have Ministers in the new Government can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=309

Te Ururoa Flavell (69% probability) is now expected to become a Minister Outside Cabinet, instead of Dr Pita Sharples, who is down to 11% probability compared with 92% yesterday. iPredict's stocks on the new Cabinet and Ministers Outside Cabinet are fairly stable and the shape of the new Government is emerging as follows:

THE CABINET (by probability and with portfolios as indicated by iPredict, and with probability)
100% John Key
100% Bill English: Finance (98%)
100% Gerry Brownlee: Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (55%)
100% Murray McCully
100% Tony Ryall: SOEs (30%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
98% Steven Joyce: Associate Finance (78%); Economic Development (65%)
98% Christopher Finlayson
98% Paula Bennett
98% Judith Collins: Justice (80%); Commerce (47%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (82%); Energy & Resources (65%)
95% Jonathan Coleman
94% Nick Smith: Environment (81%); Climate Change (60%)
94% Anne Tolley
93% Amy Adams
93% Craig Foss: Local Government (30%)
89% Kate Wilkinson
89% Phil Heatley: Fisheries (95%)
89% Nathan Guy
88% David Carter: Agriculture (86%)

MINISTERS OUTSIDE CABINET (by probability and with portfolios as indicated by iPredict, and with probability)
97% Peter Dunne
83% Tariana Turia
79% Simon Bridges
74% Maurice Williamson: Land Information (70%)
69% Te Ururoa Flavell
63% Chris Tremain
63% John Banks

The ACC portfolio appears to be up for grabs, with only a 7.4% probability it will be retained by Nick Smith, a 26% probability it will be awarded to Hekia Parata and a 50% probability it will be awarded to "other".

Jonathan Coleman looks set to lose Immigration, with just a 3.7% probability he will retain it, but his replacement is unknown. Amy Adams has a 30% chance of being awarded the portfolio, but "other" has a 31% probability.

New portfolio stocks will be launched during the day and can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

Diplomatic Appointments

The probability Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China has risen from 39% probability yesterday to 50% (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162)

National Party Leadership

John Key is strongly expected to remain Leader of the National Party until 2014, with only a combined 11.6% probability he will depart before then. There is a 40% probability he will depart in 2014 and a 15% probability he will depart in 2015 (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=143). Independent of the timing of his departure, Judith Collins is favoured to replace him with 24% probability followed by Simon Bridges (20%) and Steven Joyce (17%). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=155

Fine Print

2011 Election stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.

ENDS

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