Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 

Research helps predict earthquake aftershocks

A Victoria University student has developed a model that will help predict the expected occurrence of aftershocks after a large earthquake has occurred.

As part of her work for her PhD thesis, Annemarie Christophersen developed a model which statistically predicts the numbers of aftershocks of different sizes and in different time intervals following a large shallow earthquake.

As an example, her thesis determined the chance of a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in New Zealand being followed by an aftershock of more than magnitude 6 within seven days was 38 percent. The probability increased to 42 percent within 14 days and to 46 percent within 30 days.

The model was derived from a global database of earthquake sequences and has small but significant differences for different geological settings which means it can be used anywhere in the world.

The research had to overcome the diversity of aftershock sequences: sometimes many aftershocks occur, sometimes few. Christophersen's model successfully deals with this diversity and was shown to accurately match the actual occurrence of large aftershocks of various sizes.

Her work is expected to have two immediate applications: forecasting for insurance purposes the expected occurrence of aftershocks which might cause damage and advising emergency managers on the likely further occurrence of aftershocks after a large earthquake has occurred.

The idea for Christophersen's thesis came from David Middleton the general manager of the New Zealand Earthquake Commission and her project was supported by the Commission.



© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Electricity Market: Power Panel Favours Scrapping Low-Fixed Charges

An independent panel reviewing electricity prices favours scrapping the government’s low-user fixed charge regime, banning the use of prompt-payment discounts, and requiring greater disclosure of the profit split between the retail and generation arms of the major power companies. More>>

ALSO:

Bottomless Oil And Zero Climate Cost: Greenpeace Not Big On PEPANZ Gas Ban Report

The NZIER report commissioned by oil industry body, PEPANZ, claims the oil and gas ban issued by the Government last April could cost the the New Zealand economy $28 billion by 2050... But Greenpeace says the figures in the report are based on false assumptions and alternative facts. More>>

ALSO:

Two Queensland Fruit Flies And A Different One In Otara: Devonport Fruit And Veg Lockdown

Work continues at pace on the biosecurity response following the discovery last week of one male Queensland fruit fly in a surveillance trap in the Auckland suburb of Devonport. More>>

ALSO:

Digital Services Tax: Government To Plan Tax On Web Operator Income

New Zealand is to consult on the design of changes to tax rules which currently allow multinational companies in the digital services field to do business here without paying income tax. More>>

ALSO: