Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 

Research helps predict earthquake aftershocks

A Victoria University student has developed a model that will help predict the expected occurrence of aftershocks after a large earthquake has occurred.

As part of her work for her PhD thesis, Annemarie Christophersen developed a model which statistically predicts the numbers of aftershocks of different sizes and in different time intervals following a large shallow earthquake.

As an example, her thesis determined the chance of a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in New Zealand being followed by an aftershock of more than magnitude 6 within seven days was 38 percent. The probability increased to 42 percent within 14 days and to 46 percent within 30 days.

The model was derived from a global database of earthquake sequences and has small but significant differences for different geological settings which means it can be used anywhere in the world.

The research had to overcome the diversity of aftershock sequences: sometimes many aftershocks occur, sometimes few. Christophersen's model successfully deals with this diversity and was shown to accurately match the actual occurrence of large aftershocks of various sizes.

Her work is expected to have two immediate applications: forecasting for insurance purposes the expected occurrence of aftershocks which might cause damage and advising emergency managers on the likely further occurrence of aftershocks after a large earthquake has occurred.

The idea for Christophersen's thesis came from David Middleton the general manager of the New Zealand Earthquake Commission and her project was supported by the Commission.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Manawatu-Whanganui Projects: PGF Top-Up To Rural Broadband Roll-Out

The government has effectively raided the $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund to top up the budget for the second phase of its rural broadband initiative, filling in mobile 'black spots' and ensuring broadband is available to marae that don't have access now. More>>

ALSO:

Other Windy Cities: Auckland-Chicago Named A Top 10 ‘Most Exciting’ New Route

The inclusion of Auckland-Chicago on Lonely Planet’s Where to fly in 2019? The 10 most exciting new flight routes list comes just two weeks before Air New Zealand prepares to celebrate its inaugural flight to Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport on 30 November. More>>

Deadly Strain: ESR Ups Its Reporting On Meningococcal Disease

The increasing number of cases of Group W Meningococcal disease (MenW) has prompted ESR to increase its reporting on the disease to the Ministry of Health. ESR has upped its reporting to weekly. More>>

ALSO:

Very Small Things: "Game-Changing" 3D Printing Technology Launched

New Zealand microfabrication researchers Andrea Bubendorfer and Andrew Best, the co-inventors of a new way of fabricating very small things with Laminated Resin Printing (LRP), are part of Callaghan Innovation’s MicroMaker3D team launching the new patent pending technology in the US this week. More>>

ALSO: