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A Generally Mild Winter Expected in the North

NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE FRIDAY 3 JUNE 2005

SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: JUNE – AUGUST 2005

A GENERALLY MILD WINTER EXPECTED IN THE NORTH

Climate and Oceans: More westerlies than normal are expected over the country, with sea temperatures around New Zealand tending to be near or above average. The tropical Pacific is in a neutral state and conditions there are likely to remain in the neutral range for the duration of winter and early spring. This means there is a low chance of either an El Niño or La Niña developing.

Temperature: Overall, air temperatures are expected to be above average in the North Island and Nelson/Marlborough, with near average winter temperatures elsewhere. However, as with all winters there will be cold spells from time to time.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Normal or above normal rainfalls is likely in Buller and the west and south of the South Island, with normal or below normal in the east of both islands. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in all regions..

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:
Above average temperatures are likely during winter. Near normal rainfall is expected, with normal stream flows and soil moisture.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:
For June - August, above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall is likely, with normal soil moisture levels and streamflows.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:
Temperatures are forecast to be above average during the June – August period. Normal or below normal rainfall, with normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:
Above average winter temperatures are expected, with normal rainfall overall, but above normal rainfall likely west of Nelson. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are predicted for this region.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:
Average or above average seasonal temperatures are forecast. Above normal or normal rainfall is predicted, with normal soil moisture levels and river flows.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:
Average winter temperatures are expected with normal or below normal rainfall. Soil moisture levels and stream flows are forecast to be near normal.

ENDS

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