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Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2005


Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2005


Climate and Oceans: More westerlies to the south, with sea temperatures around New Zealand tending to be near average. The tropical Pacific is presently in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña). Conditions are likely to stay in the neutral range through the rest of 2005.

Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be near average or above average in all regions. Despite this, cold outbreaks typical of winter will nevertheless occur from time to time.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island, normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere. Stream flows are expected to be normal or below normal in the east of both Islands, and soil moisture also normal or below normal in the east of the South Island. Elsewhere, normal stream flows and soil moisture are expected.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Above average temperatures are likely during July-September. Normal or below normal rainfall is expected, with near normal stream flows and soil moisture.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:

For July-September, average or above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels, and streamflows are likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:

Temperatures are forecast to be above average during the July - September period. Normal or below normal rainfall and stream flows are expected, with near normal soil moisture levels.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:

Above average July - September temperatures are expected, with normal rainfall. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are predicted for this region.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:

Average seasonal temperatures are forecast. Normal or above normal rainfall is expected, with soil moisture levels and river flows near normal.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:

Near average seasonal temperatures are expected with normal rainfall. Soil moisture levels and stream flows are expected to be normal or below normal.


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