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Mild Spring Likely With Less Westerly Wind

NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE TUESDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2005

SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: SEPTEMBER - NOVEMBER 2005

Mild Spring Likely With Less Westerly Wind

Climate and Oceans: More anticyclones are expected east of the South Island with weaker spring westerly winds over New Zealand. Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near or above average. The tropical Pacific is presently in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña). Conditions are likely to stay in the neutral range through the rest of 2005.

Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be above average in the North Island and average or above average in the South Island.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and north of the South Island. Normal rainfall is likely in the other districts. Below normal soil moisture and river flow levels are expected in the east of the South Island. Elsewhere soil moisture and streamflows are expected to be normal.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:
Above average temperatures are likely during September - November. Near normal rainfall stream flows and soil moisture is expected.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:
For the three month period, above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels, and streamflows are likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:
Temperatures are forecast to be above average during the spring period. Above normal or normal rainfall is likely, with near normal soil and streamflows expected.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:
Above average or average seasonal temperatures are expected, with normal or above normal rainfall likely over the three months. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows predicted for this region.
West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:
Average or above average seasonal temperatures are forecast. Normal rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:
Average September - November temperatures are expected with normal rainfall. Below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows expected.

ENDS

More information can be found on NIWA’s Website at: http://www.niwa.co.nz/ncc
© Copyright NIWA 2005. All rights reserved. Acknowledgement of NIWA as the source is required.

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