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Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2005 Jan 2006

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2005 January 2006

DRIER SOILS AND LOWER STREAMFLOWS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH ISLAND

Climate and Oceans: More anticyclonic southwesterly airflow over the North Island, and anticyclones to the south of New Zealand are expected, with sea temperatures remaining slightly warmer than normal. The tropical Pacific is presently in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña). Conditions are likely to stay in the neutral range into autumn.

Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be average or above average in all regions of New Zealand.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or below normal in the east of the North Island, and normal in all other districts. Normal soil moisture and streamflows are expected in the North Island, but general dry conditions are likely in the South Island.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Average or above average temperatures are likely during November - January. Normal rainfall, stream flows and soil moisture are expected.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:

For the three month period, above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels, and streamflows are likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:

Temperatures are forecast to be average or above average during the three month period. Normal or below normal rainfall is likely, with near normal soil and stream flows expected.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:

Above average or average seasonal temperatures are expected, with normal rainfall likely over the three months. Normal or below normal soil moisture levels and below normal stream flows are predicted for this region.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:

Average or above average seasonal temperatures are forecast for November - January. Normal rainfall, and normal or below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:

Average November - January temperatures are expected with normal rainfall. Below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows expected.

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