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Warmer Summer Likely

December 2005 - February 2006

Warmer Summer Likely

Climate and Oceans: Weaker than normal westerly winds over New Zealand are expected. The tropical Pacific is presently in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña), and is expected to remain so into autumn 2006.

For the tropical cyclone season, normal cyclone activity is expected through to April 2006. For New Zealand this means a 70% chance of a cyclone passing somewhere near the country. The risk is greatest after the end of January.

Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be above average or average in all regions of New Zealand. Above average sea temperatures are likely throughout summer.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island, and near normal elsewhere. Soil moisture levels and river flows are expected to be below normal in the southwest of the North Island and all of the South Island, with normal conditions in the north and east of the North Island.

ENDS

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