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Kyoto, Carbon Tax Will Not Noticeably Change CO2

New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

12 May 2006

Kyoto and A Carbon Tax Will Make No Noticeable Difference in CO2 Levels

The International Energy Agency seem to be convinced that man-made global warming is real, that adopting Kyoto would make a difference and that we should get into carbon trading or a carbon tax.

European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), (20 April 2006) seems to take a more realistic view when it says:
"..the global climate is also affected by cycles of solar activity and geophysical factors, and establishing exactly how great man's influence is compared with natural changes is not yet possible, nor is it likely to be for a long time. There are also uncertainties concerning the representativeness of available data and the results of the climate models, which still do not describe all the interactions with complete accuracy and therefore cannot simulate all the elements of the climate system with absolute precision."

The fact is that all the predictions about future rises in the global temperature are based on computer models of the climate. None of these models predicted that, for instance, 1998 would be the warmest year and that the world would cool slightly since them. Studies based on the sunspot cycle did predict this and also predict a steady cooling until about 2030. Therefore they appear to have more credibility.

The EESC seems to agree: "Further research is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute and fully understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties and to project future climate changes. In particular, there is a need for additional systematic and sustained observations, modelling and process studies."

Even if man-made global warming is happening, the IPCC climate models predict that adherence Kyoto will not make a noticeable difference.

In advocating carbon trading, the International Energy Agency is obviously not in touch with latest events. In 2005, carbon dioxide was valued at ¤25 per ton but in the last few weeks it has dropped to ¤10 per ton. According to The Economist, European generators have made a lot of money out of carbon trading and it has had little affect on the production of carbon dioxide. Carbon trading was strongly promoted by Enron because they believed - obviously correctly - that they could make a lot of money out of it. New Zealand would lose a lot of money. (In the United Kingdom alone, $1.5 billion.)

Bryan Leyland Chairman, Economic Panel,
New Zealand Client Science Coalition.


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