Evaluating volcanic risk for the future
Evaluating volcanic risk for the future
Volcanologists, earth scientists and natural hazard planners from throughout New Zealand are meeting today in Palmerston North to share research results and develop a research plan for the next two years.
The symposium is hosted by the University’s Volcanic Risk Solutions research group, and the researchers will identify new areas of collaboration among national organisations. They will also discuss the best way to coordinate the recent influx of doctoral and masters students across New Zealand, in order to make the most of their thesis research and ensure the present gaps in the knowledge of volcanic hazards are addressed.
Among the Massey scientists presenting today are:
Ian Chapman:
Assessing the volcanic risk to the Taranaki energy
distribution sector.
A hub of petroleum exploration and
natural gas products, the Taranaki region is also
overshadowed by the threat of volcanism. Given society’s
reliance on electricity and natural gas, what impacts would
a typical eruption have on the Taranaki energy distribution
sector, including the network of Powerco? What practical
steps could be taken to mitigate this risk? This analysis
extends beyond damage to the electrical network, to include
the wider implications to hospitals, critical industry, cell
phone towers, gas gates and other essential
infrastructure.
Dr Jerome Lecointre:Taranaki Awakens! An
emergency management eruption scenario.
An eruptive
scenario for Mt Egmont has been developed specifically for
Taranaki Regional Council Civil Defence authorities to
provide a practical emergency management tool that can be
used during a scenario-based exercise. The scenario is based
on the development of an eruption over a period of more than
69 days. Its volcanic activity matches geological data
covering the last 1,000 years of volcanic activity. It will
help decision makers to focus on areas of increased
vulnerability and key infrastructure in sectors directly
affected by the eruption (dairy plants, pipe lines,
petrochemical production facilities, roads and bridges).
Professor Vince Neall: Ascertaining volcanic risk to
infrastructure in Taranaki.
The main events in the
history of Egmont Volcano are published in a 1:100,000 map.
They are now relating this information to understand the
volcanic risk to infrastructure in Taranaki. Infrastructure
data has been combined into a Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) database which was cross-referenced to a volcanic
hazards map. This analysis was made available to
participating local government authorities and key
industries, and one result of this analysis was the
recognition of a large number of vulnerability points.
Susy Cole: Understanding the internal dynamics of lahars
using geophysical techniques.
Lahars, or water-containing
mass flows, pose a great threat to communities that live
near river channels on volcanoes. The internal dynamics of
these lahars are not well known, mostly because it is
impossible to “see” inside a moving lahar. New
monitoring or “imaging” systems to address this were
tested earlier this year at Semeru, Indonesia. The fieldwork
also allowed for the experimentation of the effectiveness
and reliability of the equipment to be installed in the
Whangaehu River, Ruapehu. Several problems were highlighted
with equipment installation, which will aid preparations for
the anticipated lahar at Ruapehu.
Dr Karoly Nemeth:
Lessons for volcanic emergency management from the 2005
Ambae caldera-lake eruption in Vanuatu.
After a dormancy
of 90 years, Ambae volcano erupted in November 2005. The
volcanic lake at the summit, which is five times larger than
that of Mt Ruapehu’s, threatened to form lahars as a
result of the displacement of water and mud. Eruptions did
not reach the size needed to trigger lahars, and despite a
low level of scientific concern, local authorities organised
themselves rapidly and conducted a four-week evacuation of
3,500 people. This was driven by the fear of public and
local authorities, along with a lack of recent experience in
volcanism, and perhaps also a strong and overbearing
interest from international media.
ENDS
See... List of presentations and abstracts