NZ public being misled by scaremongering

NZ public being misled by scaremongering predictions of catastrophic climate change

The New Zealand public have a right to be annoyed at the extent to which they are being misled by scaremongering predictions of catastrophic climate change, according to Dr Augie Auer, chair of the scientific panel of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

“The publication within days of two conflicting summaries of a draft of the Fourth Assessment Report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shows up two things: firstly, that climate science is not settled, and there is no scientific ‘consensus’ as has been claimed; secondly, the document released in Paris last Friday is flawed and incomplete, thus it is misleading,” said Dr Auer. The second summary, an independent analysis by the Fraser Institute of Canada, was released by Dr Ross McKitrick in London on Monday.

“Over the weekend, following Friday’s release of the IPCC document, we’ve had screaming headlines about impending doom, totally unjustified, and with no verifiable scientific validity. They are wild guesses based on flawed computer modelling.

“We’ve had this before. When the 3rd assessment came out in 2001, it relied heavily for its predictions on a graph that became known popularly as the ‘hockey stick.’ Well, that stick was broken into little pieces last year when the statistics on which it was based were found to be both inadequate and inaccurate.

“Now, we are presented with an IPCC document that is a summary of a draft of an unfinished report not due for release until May, yet this summary is intended to guide policymakers. It is a document that ignores natural climate influences such as sun-related effects and cycles, and tries to pin the whole of the blame on human beings.

“I hope that people will take the time to read the measured and scientifically restrained comments of Dr Ross McKitrick and his co-writers, who sum up their findings with these words: ‘Consequently, there will remain an unavoidable element of uncertainty as to the extent that humans are contributing to future climate change, and indeed whether or not such change is a good or bad thing.’

“Remember, Dr McKitrick was one of the two people whose research led to the discrediting of the ‘hockey stick’. We should all pause to study what he has to say on this occasion. There is no case for burdening our people and our economy with carbon taxes and charges, or with higher costs and charges for energy generation. We’ve already been misled about Kyoto, let’s not be fooled again,” said Dr Auer.

Dr Vincent Gray, a Wellington climate scientist, who has been a member of the IPCC expert reviewers panel since the inaugural assessment says it comes as no surprise that the independent summary finds a difference between temperatures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

“NASA temperature records show that there is hardly any recent temperature increase over the oceans, but a greater increase over the larger land masses, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. The reason for the North/South difference is due to the fact that all the major land masses are in the North, and that they generate and radiate heat and extra radiative heat which is even detectable in the lower atmosphere.

“New Zealand is a very small land surrounded by sea, so is ‘below average’”, says Dr Gray. He says there is no evidence that human greenhouse gas emissions are harming the climate, or are likely to do so in the future.

“The new IPCC report confirms that global warming blamed on carbon emissions was only 0.4ºC over the past 56 years. It is impossible to believe that this small amount could be responsible for all the climate disasters listed in the report.

“But more importantly it did not happen here. There was negligible warming in New Zealand over the past 50 years, and 2006 was 0.7ºC below the figure for 2005. The record for Christchurch shows no warming since 1910, with a maximum in 1917.

“The report also says that global warming only happened between 1976 and 1998, that is, 20 of the 56 years since 1950. From 1950 to 1976 there was none. Since 1998 there has been no warming, worldwide. What this indicates is that global warming is over; certainly as far as New Zealand is concerned,” said Dr Gray.

Bryan Leyland, an Auckland energy consultant who is chair of the coalition's economic panel, comments: "The IPCC report makes no mention of the effect that sunspot related phenomena have on our weather and climate. How can these supposedly responsible and objective climate scientists ignore the huge amount of research that shows a very strong correlation between sun-related effects and the climate? It fully explains recent warming and cooling and is backed up by records going back thousands of years.

“Those records indicate that there is no imminent danger and we can concentrate our efforts on what we should do anyway: waste less energy and improve the lot of those who live in poverty at risk of disease and on the edge of starvation. Which begs the questions: why have the SPM drafters ignored sun-related effects? Is it because their obsession with man-made CO2 has made them blind to other more credible theories." he said.

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