IPCC IDs measures to limit climate change

IPCC identifies portfolio of measures to limit climate change

We have the technology, and it need not cost the earth

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just released the Summary for Policymakers of its Working Group 3 report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. This summary was approved at a plenary in Bangkok, Thailand, this week.

Professor Ralph Sims of Massey University is a coordinating lead author of the chapter on energy supply and was one of the New Zealanders at the plenary. ‘As scientists, we’re delivering a strong but positive message. Action is required. The situation is urgent. But it’s not beyond repair. Many energy efficiency and energy supply technologies and practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are available now. And mitigation measures will bring many other benefits, some of which are in fact expected to save us money.’

The report confirms that greenhouse gas emissions are rising fast. Emissions of the key greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol have increased by 70% between 1970 and 2004. Existing policies have not made a noticeable dent in the overall upward trend ‘Without additional measures, we expect global greenhouse gas emissions to reach 25-90% above 2000 levels by 2030,’ say Professor Sims.

The report says: ‘In order to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and decline thereafter, The lower the stabilisation level, the more quickly this peak and decline would need to occur. Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels‘.

‘One significant finding,’ says Professor Sims, ‘is that studies from all regions of the world point to substantial health benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, because of lower air pollution. So much so, that the health benefits could offset a substantial fraction of the costs of such reductions.’

Currently the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration is about 430 parts per million (ppm), carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq). [The current atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is 369 ppm; the rest is contributed by other greenhouse gases emitted from human activities.]
The report says that under a scenario in which emissions peak within the next decade and then reduce to half the current levels or less by 2050, eventual warming would be limited to about 2–2.4 °C above pre-industrial levels.

A stabilisation target of 530-585 ppm CO2-eq is projected to limit warming to 2.8-3.2 °C above pre-industrial, under a scenario where emissions peak in the period 2010-2030. This scenario is estimated to slow annual GDP growth rates in 2050 by less than 0.1%. World-wide carbon prices of around 20–80 US dollars a tonne by 2030 would be consistent with this target.

The report says that such targets are achievable ‘by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and those that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades’.

A wide range of mitigation technologies are listed in the report. The report says ‘investments in and world-wide deployment of low-GHG [greenhouse gas] emission technologies as well as technology improvements through public and private research, development and demonstration would be required for achieving stabilisation targets as well as cost reduction.’ However, so-called ‘geo-engineering options’ which hit the headlines from time to time, such as inserting material into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, are described as ‘largely speculative and unproven, and with the risk of unknown side-effects’.

To download the Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch

Some key issues identified by sector

Energy Supply Investment in energy infrastructure is projected to be at least US $20 trillion between now and 2030. Such decisions will have long term impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency is often cheaper than increasing energy supply.

Transport Improved vehicle efficiency generally brings benefits (lower costs) but other consumer considerations come into play. ‘Market forces alone, including rising fuel costs, are therefore not expected to lead to significant emission reductions.’ Biofuels are projected to be 3% of transport fuel by 2030, but changes in fuel prices and technology developments might boost this to about 5–10%. The growth of CO2 emissions from aviation is expected to be only partially offset by improved fuel efficiency.

Buildings Energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from buildings and save money. By 2020, about 30% of the projected greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector can be avoided ‘with net economic benefit’.

Industry The mitigation potential here is predominantly in energy-intensive industries. “Full use of available mitigation options is not being made in either industrialised or developing nations”.

Agriculture A large proportion of the mitigation potential in this sector is in ‘soil carbon management’ so that soil and vegetation act as a greater carbon sink. Current technological options identified include: improved crop and grazing land management, restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands, improved livestock and manure management to reduce methane (CH4) emissions, improved nitrogen fertiliser application techniques to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions.

Forestry About 65% of the mitigation potential of this sector is in the tropics, and 50% of the total could be achieved by reducing emissions from deforestation.

Waste Post-consumer waste contributes less than 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions but mitigation action is possible at ‘low cost’ and can promote sustainable development.

Lifestyle ‘Changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns that emphasise resource conservation can contribute to developing a low-carbon economy that is both equitable and sustainable.’

Notes: Background on the IPCC

Download the Summary for Policymakers & view the IPCC official media conference: www.ipcc.ch

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988. It produces regular, independent scientific assessments of the current state of knowledge on climate change. These include the major six-yearly assessment reports (2007 is the fourth), and special reports of a more or less technical nature. Membership of the IPCC is open to all member countries of the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Program.

The 4th Assessment involved: 2500+ scientific expert reviewers 800+ contributing authors 450+ lead authors 130+ countries Each chapter of the report has two Coordinating Lead Authors and a team of 7–15 Lead Authors, along with a host of contributing authors. Authors are selected based on their scientific expertise, with attention also paid to obtaining a geographical spread and a balance of specialist knowledge.

Each IPCC report goes through two formal rounds of external review. Authors must record how they deal with every review comment. Review editors, who are senior scientists in the field, ensure authors respond appropriately.

The 4th Assessment Report is in four volumes: Working Group 1, The physical science basis [February]. Working Group 2, Impacts, adaptation, & vulnerability, including a specific chapter on Australia and New Zealand [April]. Working Group 3, Mitigation [May]. Synthesis Report. Integrates material from all 3 working groups in a short, policy-document. [Due to be accepted in November].

A Summary for Policymakers, which is finalised and approved at a Working Group Plenary, is a non-technical summary of a working group report. The full scientific report includes extensive chapters and a much longer Technical Summary.

The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data. IPCC Assessments reference thousands of high quality & peer reviewed scientific studies conducted by research organisations around the world.

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