Warm conditions to continue
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: April - June 2008
Warm conditions to continue: dry soils likely to improve as season progresses
For the April - June period mild conditions are very likely in many areas, according to NIWA's National Climate Centre. The centre say there are signs that it could continue dry for some time in drought-affected parts of Waikato, Taranaki, Manawatu, and Wairarapa, but the situation is likely to ease as autumn progresses.
For the three months as a whole, above average temperatures are the most likely outcome in many regions, with only a 10% chance of below average temperatures. This outlook reflects the effects of a strong La Nina, with generally more north easterly winds over the country, bringing mild conditions.
Normal or below normal rainfall is likely in the drought-affected parts of the North Island over the three month period as a whole. As autumn progresses and shorter days mean less evaporation, rainfall will become more effective in reducing soil moisture deficits.
For the remainder of the tropical cyclone season (through to May 2008), there is still a small chance of one more ex-tropical cyclone passing close to the country. The regions most at risk are the north and northeast of the North Island.