Warm start to winter, but still drier than normal
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: May - July 2008
Warm start to winter, but still drier than normal in the south
For the late autumn and early winter period (May- July), mild conditions are very likely in many areas according to NIWA's National Climate Centre. Despite the overall temperature expectation, cold outbreaks typical of winter will nevertheless occur from time to time. There are signs that drier than normal conditions will likely continue in Westland, Fiordland, Alpine areas of the South Island and Southland.
For the three months as a whole, above average temperatures are the most likely outcome in many regions, with only a 10% chance of below average temperatures occurring. Soil temperatures are very likely to be above average as well. Above average temperatures are expected to continue in the seas around New Zealand.
Normal or below normal rainfall, and below normal river flows and soil moisture are likely in the west and south of the South Island. This outlook reflects the effects of a moderate but waning La Niña, with generally more north easterly winds over the country, bringing milder and wetter than normal conditions in the north and east of the North Island.