Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 


UC Research Identifies Patterns Leading to Terrorist Attacks

UC Research Identifies Patterns Leading to Large-scale Terrorist Attacks

May 9, 2013

University of Canterbury (UC) research has found that terrorist incidents that kill a lot of people are often preceded by a number of small-scale attacks.

UC psychology lecturer Dr Andy Martens says terrorist attacks that result in heavy loss of life are especially important to understand because the vast majority of attacks kill one person or no one at all.

``Our research using the Global Terrorism Database produced by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism shows that of the 132,041 people killed in attacks between 1970 and 2008, a total of 42,703 people died in one percent of the attacks.

``The small number of more deadly attacks accounts for a disproportionate number of the total fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks,’’ Dr Martens says. 

``We tested for patterns of escalation in the subset of small-scale attacks that terrorists committed leading up to big attacks. We found that an escalating trajectory tends to emerge in the series of smaller attacks that precede major attacks, killing 20 people or more.

``Before any big attacks, the lethality of a group’s attacks tended to first decrease and then increase such that the number of people killed increased most steeply just prior to a big attack. Further, groups tend to attack frequently just prior to a big attack.

``However, not all terrorist groups show these patterns—many do not. But on the whole, there appears to be a general tendency to escalate leading up to big attacks.

``Given the disproportionate influence of major terrorist incidents, uncovering systematic patterns in attacks that precede and anticipate highly lethal attacks may be of value for predicting and understanding attacks that exact a heavy toll on life.’’

Dr Martens says future research may build on the UC research to improve the ability to forecast terrorist attacks and, in turn, more strategically steer intervention resources.

The present UC escalation model may also prove useful for interventions and monitoring killing in other contexts such as war, genocide and gang violence. His research included collaboration with colleagues from other universities.  

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Power Outages, Roads Close: Easter Storm Moving Down Country

The NZ Transport Agency says storm conditions at the start of the Easter break are making driving hazardous in Auckland and Northland and it advises people extreme care is needed on the regions’ state highways and roads... More>>

ALSO:

Houses (& Tobacco) Lead Inflation: CPI Up 0.3% In March Quarter

The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent in the March 2014 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. Higher tobacco and housing prices were partly countered by seasonally cheaper international air fares, vegetables, and package holidays. More>>

ALSO:

Notoriously Reliable Predictions: Budget To Show Rise In Full-Time Income To 2018: English

This year’s Budget will forecast wage increases through to 2018 amounting to a $10,500 a year increase in average full time earnings over six years to $62,200 a year, says Finance Minister Bill English in a speech urging voters not to “put all of this at risk” by changing the government. More>>

ALSO:

Prices Up, Volume Down: March NZ House Sales Drop 10% As Loan Curbs Bite

New Zealand house sales dropped 10 percent in March from a year earlier as the Reserve Bank’s restrictions on low-equity mortgages continue to weigh on sales of cheaper property. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: Chorus To Appeal Copper Pricing Judgment

Chorus will appeal a High Court ruling upholding the Commerce Commission’s determination setting the regulated prices on the telecommunications network operator’s copper lines. More>>

ALSO:

Earlier:

Cars: Precautionary Recalls Announced For Toyota Vehicles

Toyota advises that a number of its New Zealand vehicles are affected by a series of precautionary global recalls. Toyota New Zealand General Manager Customer Services Spencer Morris stressed that the recalls are precautionary. More>>

ALSO:

'Gardening Club': Air Freight Cartel Nets Almost $12 Million In Penalties

The High Court in Auckland has today ordered Swiss company Kuehne + Nagel International AG to pay a penalty of $3.1 million plus costs for breaches of the Commerce Act. Kuehne + Nagel’s penalty brings the total penalties ordered in this case to $11.95 million ... More>>

ALSO:

Crown Accounts: Revenue Below Projections

Core Crown tax revenue has increased by $1.9 billion (or 5.0%) compared to the same time last year. However this was $1.1 billion less than expected and is reflected across most tax types, continuing the pattern of recent months. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Computer Power Plus
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sci-Tech
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news