Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 


NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: Sept, Oct, Nov 2013

NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: Sept, Oct, Nov 2013

Overview

The equatorial Pacific Ocean as a whole remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), although colder than normal (La Niña-like) sea temperatures persist in a shallow surface layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral is the most likely outcome for the next three months (September–November).

In the New Zealand region, higher pressures than normal are forecast south of the country, while lower pressures than normal are expected from Queensland eastwards. This circulation pattern is expected to produce more northerlies or north-westerlies affecting the North Island, and a weaker than normal westerly flow over the South Island.

After a very warm winter, the coming spring is likely to have near or above average temperatures across the country. However, frosts and snow conditions may occur in some areas from time to time in early spring. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be above the climatological average for the coming three months around New Zealand.

Outlook Summary

September to November temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be above average in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island, compared with near average (30% chance) or below average (20% chance). In all other regions, spring temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be above average or near average.

Rainfall totals over the September – November period as a whole are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range for the north and west of the North Island and for Nelson-Marlborough, compared with below normal (20% chance). In the east of the North Island, and west of the South Island, spring rainfall totals are more likely (35-40%) to be in the near normal or below normal ranges than in the above normal range (25%). In the east of the South Island, near normal rainfall is slightly more likely (40% chance) than other categories.
Soil moisture levels are most likely to be normal or below normal (35-40% chance in each category) in the east of the North Island, near normal (40% chance) in the north and west of the South Island, and normal or above normal (35-40% chance) in other regions.

River flows are most likely to be normal or below normal (35-40% chance in each category) in the east of the North Island, slightly more likely to be normal or above normal (35%) in the north of the North Island, and most likely near normal (40-45%) in all other regions.

For regional information see attachment
SCOSept.pdf

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Half Empty: Fonterra's 2017 Opening Forecast Below Expectations

Fonterra Cooperative Group raised its forecast farmgate milk payout for next season by less than expected as the world's largest dairy exporter predicts lower prices will crimp production and supply will pick up. The New Zealand dollar fell. More>>

ALSO:

Pest Control: Mouse Blitz Team Leaves For Antipodes

The Million Dollar Mouse project to rid Antipodes Island of mice is underway with the departure of a rodent eradication team to the remote nature reserve and World Heritage Area. More>>

Gongs Got: Canon Media Awards & NZ Radio Awards Happen

Radio NZ: RNZ website The Wireless, which is co-funded by NZ On Air, was named best website, while Toby Manhire and Toby Morris won the best opinion general writing section for their weekly column on rnz.co.nz and Tess McClure won the best junior feature writer section. More>>

ALSO:

Pre-Budget: Debt Focus Risks Losing Opportunity To Stoke Economy

The Treasury is likely to upgrade its forecasts for economic growth in Budget 2016 next week but Finance Minister Bill English has already signalled that more of his focus is on debt repayment than on fiscal stimulus or tax cuts... More>>

ALSO:

Fulton Hogan's Heroes: Managing Director Nick Miller Resigns

Fulton Hogan managing director Nick Miller will leave the privately owned construction company after seven years in charge. The Dunedin-based company has kicked off a search for a replacement, and Miller will stay on at the helm until March next year, or until a successor has been appointed and a transition period completed. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Electricity, Executions, And Bob Dylan

The Electricity Authority has unveiled the final version of its pricing plan for electricity transmission. This will change the way transmission prices (which comprise about 10% of the average power bill) are computed, and will add hundreds of dollars a year to power bills for many ordinary consumers. More>>

ALSO:

Half Empty: Fonterra NZ, Australia Milk Collection Drops In Season

Fonterra Cooperative Group says milk collection is down in New Zealand and Australia, its two largest markets, in the first 11 months of the season during a period of weak dairy prices. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sci-Tech
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news