Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 


NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: Sept, Oct, Nov 2013

NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: Sept, Oct, Nov 2013

Overview

The equatorial Pacific Ocean as a whole remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), although colder than normal (La Niña-like) sea temperatures persist in a shallow surface layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral is the most likely outcome for the next three months (September–November).

In the New Zealand region, higher pressures than normal are forecast south of the country, while lower pressures than normal are expected from Queensland eastwards. This circulation pattern is expected to produce more northerlies or north-westerlies affecting the North Island, and a weaker than normal westerly flow over the South Island.

After a very warm winter, the coming spring is likely to have near or above average temperatures across the country. However, frosts and snow conditions may occur in some areas from time to time in early spring. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be above the climatological average for the coming three months around New Zealand.

Outlook Summary

September to November temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be above average in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island, compared with near average (30% chance) or below average (20% chance). In all other regions, spring temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be above average or near average.

Rainfall totals over the September – November period as a whole are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range for the north and west of the North Island and for Nelson-Marlborough, compared with below normal (20% chance). In the east of the North Island, and west of the South Island, spring rainfall totals are more likely (35-40%) to be in the near normal or below normal ranges than in the above normal range (25%). In the east of the South Island, near normal rainfall is slightly more likely (40% chance) than other categories.
Soil moisture levels are most likely to be normal or below normal (35-40% chance in each category) in the east of the North Island, near normal (40% chance) in the north and west of the South Island, and normal or above normal (35-40% chance) in other regions.

River flows are most likely to be normal or below normal (35-40% chance in each category) in the east of the North Island, slightly more likely to be normal or above normal (35%) in the north of the North Island, and most likely near normal (40-45%) in all other regions.

For regional information see attachment
SCOSept.pdf

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Scoop Business: NZ Govt Operating Deficit Smaller Than Expected

The New Zealand’s government’s operating deficit was smaller than expected in the first five months of the financial year as a clampdown on expenditure managed to offset a shortfall in the tax-take from last month’s forecast. More>>

ALSO:

0.8 Percent Annually:
NZ Inflation Falls Below RBNZ's Target

New Zealand's annual pace of inflation slowed to below the Reserve Bank's target band in the final three months of the year, giving governor Graeme Wheeler more room to keep the benchmark interest rate lower for longer.More>>

ALSO:

NASA, NOAA: Find 2014 Warmest Year In Modern Record

Since 1880, Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), a trend that is largely driven by the increase in carbon dioxide and other human emissions into the planet’s atmosphere. The majority of that warming has occurred in the past three decades. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: New Zealand’s Reserve Bank Named Central Bank Of The Year

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s efforts to stifle house price inflation by using new policy tools has seen the institution named Central Bank of the year by Central Banking Publications, a publisher specialising in global central banking practice. More>>

ALSO:

Science Media Centre: Viral Science And Another 'Big Dry'?

"Potentially, if there is no significant rainfall for the next month or so, we could be heading into one of the worst nation-wide droughts we’ve seen for some time," warns NIWA principal climate scientist Dr Andrew Tait. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Standards New Zealand

Standards New Zealand
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sci-Tech
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news