Time for some realism
Time for some realism
People are very good at
making predictions although, alas, rarely ones which are
correct. What we do all too rarely is take a step back and
look at earlier predictions through the filter of current
knowledge. Although situations change continually, there
should be some general lessons to learn from the mistakes of
the past. Perhaps the most important is the realisation that
projections of current trends are almost certainly going to
be wrong and that any conclusions we can draw are subject to
considerable uncertainty. Recognition that this is true can
be a humbling experience, but should help us see our
forecasts more as a range of probabilistic scenarios than
likely outcomes.
>
> Unfortunately, humility is not
much in evidence when it comes to climate change. Earlier
this week, Lord Stern (of the eponymous report) claimed that
the latest IPCC Assessment Report (of which more later)
would seriously understate the problem because some risk
factors had not been taken into account (Lord Stern: IPCC
report will underestimate climate change). He is quoted by
the Telegraph as saying that many economic models ‘grossly
underestimate the risks’ because they assume climate
change will not affect growth.
>
> In a story from the
Guardian, he attacks sceptics (Leading climate change
economist brands sceptics ‘irrational’): “’The
science is unequivocal and shows there is serious danger.
What is coming from [sceptics] is just noise, and should be
treated as noise.’ He said some sceptics were in the pay
of hostile industries, with a vested interest in
contradicting the science, and were being ‘deliberately
naive’ in claiming the world could wait decades to deal
with rising emissions. ‘It (the sceptic response) looks
very well-organised,’ he said. ‘They are deliberately
distorting the way we understand risk.’"
>
> Such
talk smacks of desperation: if you can’t persuade an
audience that your opponent is wrong by rational argument,
then question their credibility. Implying that sceptics are
part of some shadowy conspiracy and simply motivated by
money is insulting, but suggests that the climate change
establishment – with much greater resources at its
disposal – is rattled.
>
> Today’s much-heralded
launch of the first part of the Fifth Assessment Report
(actually just the Summary for Policymakers of the report
from Working Group 1 on climate science) similarly over-eggs
the argument. Their key conclusion is that it is now 95%
certain that the primary driver of recent climate change is
human activity (WG1 Summary for Policymakers). This has
increased since the previous report, published in 2007, but
the judgement is a subjective one; there is no objective way
of deriving such a metric.
>
> To quote from the press
release accompanying the report (Human influence on climate
clear, IPCC report says): “As the ocean warms, and
glaciers and ice sheets reduce, global mean sea level will
continue to rise, but at a faster rate than we have
experienced over the past 40 years,” said Co-Chair Qin
Dahe. The report finds with high confidence that ocean
warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the
climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy
accumulated between 1971 and 2010. Co-Chair Thomas Stocker
concluded: “As a result of our past, present and expected
future emissions of CO2, we are committed to climate change,
and effects will persist for many centuries even if
emissions of CO2 stop.”
>
> He also delivered this
key message: "Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will
cause further warming and changes in all components of the
climate system. Limiting climate change will require
substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions." And that is the essential argument being made:
that carbon dioxide emissions must be drastically reduced to
avoid continued unwelcome changes to the climate.
>
>
Now, this could turn out to be true, but we have to remember
that the entire argument has rather shaky foundations. The
only facts we have are the evidence of measurements: first
that average temperatures have trended upwards since the end
of the Little Ice Age (but not smoothly) and second that the
levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have risen
significantly and are continuing to rise as more coal, gas
and oil is burnt. The third fact is that the infra-red
absorption properties of CO2 mean that increasing levels
will lead to modest temperature rises.
>
> That much
is clear, but the IPCC reasoning is that this warming is
reinforced by positive feedbacks, so raising temperatures
considerably more. There is currently no evidence of this so
we all, citizens and governments alike, are effectively
being asked to trust the IPCC and push ahead with radical
and expensive changes to our energy generation and use. Any
critical comments which weaken the argument for action are
being slapped down. With Canada and now Australia having
left the fold of enthusiasts for emissions reduction, the
IPCC and its supporters will see AR5 as their last chance to
maintain momentum behind their cause.
>
> But it looks
increasingly likely that they are now swimming against the
tide. Their lack of realism about the importance of
renewable energy, the failure of Carbon Capture and Storage
schemes to be brought on stream and the undeniable fact that
CO2 emissions will continue to rise until China’s growth
plateaus make current policy look more and more Quixotic
(with the difference being they are fighting for windmills,
not against them).
>
> The IPCC will not get many more
chances. If it wants to persuade others of its case, it has
to be less dogmatic and more realistic. Arguing that the
chances of catastrophe warrant action, even if the
scientific evidence is not clear, is a reasonable position.
So is the position that emissions reduction should be
achieved in the most cost-effective way, without artificial
targets for renewables. Favouring nuclear energy would be
the obvious long term strategy, delivering an affordable,
secure electricity supply even if the enhanced greenhouse
hypothesis turns out not to be
valid.
ends