Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search


NIWA Outlook: August-October 2014

NIWA Outlook: August-October 2014


The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to remain ENSO-neutral at the end of July 2014, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions failing to sufficiently couple to initiate an El Niño event. Other El Niño indicators have also weakened in the last month. Thus, the chances of an El Niño event developing over spring appear to be lessening.

International guidance still indicates that El Niño is the most likely outcome (about 70% chance) over the coming three seasons through to the end of summer 2015. However, it should be recognised that this guidance is based on model simulations from end-of-June conditions so does not take account of the rapid changes observed in July. The behaviour of the atmosphere over the next month or two will be critical to whether an El Niño event initiates or not.

During August–October 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the northeast of New Zealand, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be accompanied by generally anomalous flow from the easterly quarter.

Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months are expected to be near average off the west coast of New Zealand and above average to the east.

Outlook Summary

August-October temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be above average for the east of the North Island, and likely (40-45%) to be average or above average for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as winter advances into spring.

August-October rainfall is equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal or below normal in the west of the North Island and in the north of the South Island. In remaining South Island regions, seasonal rainfall is most likely (45%) to be in the near-normal range.

August– October river flows and soil moisture levels are about equally likely (35-40 % chance) to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and most likely (45%) to be below normal in the west of the North Island. In the South Island, river flows and soil moisture levels are likely (40% chance) to be near normal in the west, but about equally likely (35-40 % chance) to be normal or below normal in the north and east.


© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


Postnatal Depression: 'The Thief That Steals Motherhood' - Alison McCulloch

Post-natal depression is a sly and cruel illness, described by one expert as ‘the thief that steals motherhood’, it creeps up on its victims, hiding behind the stress and exhaustion of being a new parent, catching many women unaware and unprepared. More>>


DIY: Kiwi Ingenuity And Masking Tape Saves Chick

Kiwi ingenuity and masking tape has saved a Kiwi chick after its egg was badly damaged endangering the chick's life. The egg was delivered to Kiwi Encounter at Rainbow Springs in Rotorua 14 days ago by a DOC worker with a large hole in its shell and against all odds has just successfully hatched. More>>


Trade: Key To Lead Mission To India; ASEAN FTA Review Announced

Prime Minister John Key will lead a trade delegation to India next week, saying the pursuit of a free trade agreement with the protectionist giant is "the primary reason we're going" but playing down the likelihood of early progress. More>>



MYOB: Digital Signatures Go Live

From today, Inland Revenue will begin accepting “digital signatures”, saving businesses and their accountants a huge amount of administration time and further reducing the need for pen and paper in the workplace. More>>

Oil Searches: Norway's Statoil Quits Reinga Basin

Statoil, the Norwegian state-owned oil company, has given up oil and gas exploration in Northland's Reinga Basin, saying the probably of a find was 'too low'. More>>


Modern Living: Auckland Development Blowouts Reminiscent Of Run Up To GFC

The collapse of property developments in Auckland is "almost groundhog day" to the run-up of the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 as banks refuse to fund projects due to blowouts in construction and labour costs, says John Kensington, the author of KPMG's Financial Institutions Performance Survey. More>>


Health: New Zealand's First ‘No Sugary Drinks’ Logo Unveiled

New Zealand’s first “no sugary drinks logo” has been unveiled at an event in Wellington... It will empower communities around New Zealand to lift their health and wellbeing and send a clear message about the damage caused by too much sugar in our diets. More>>


Get More From Scoop

Search Scoop  
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news