Seasonal Climate Outlook
Seasonal Climate Outlook
Highlights this month
include:
• Sea surface temperatures across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions
between neutral and weak El Niño states during February
2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El
Niño-like conditions.
• International guidance
indicates that the probability of El Niño conditions
developing over the next three months (March – May 2015)
is about 45%.
• During March – May 2015, mean sea
level pressures are expected to be slightly below normal
over New Zealand and below normal to the north and east of
the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be
associated with anomalous flow from the easterly
quarter.
• Coastal waters are forecast to remain in the
above normal range especially along the west coast of the
country for the March – May 2015 period.
• The
official end of the 2014-2015 southwest Pacific Tropical
Cyclone season is April 2015. The risk of having an
ex-tropical system coming within 550km of the country during
the forecast period (March – May 2015) remains slightly
elevated compared to normal.
http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1503/SCO_Mar2015_final_.pdf
ends