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Seasonal Climate Outlook

Seasonal Climate Outlook


Highlights this month include:
• Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions.
• International guidance indicates that the probability of El Niño conditions developing over the next three months (March – May 2015) is about 45%.
• During March – May 2015, mean sea level pressures are expected to be slightly below normal over New Zealand and below normal to the north and east of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be associated with anomalous flow from the easterly quarter.
• Coastal waters are forecast to remain in the above normal range especially along the west coast of the country for the March – May 2015 period.
• The official end of the 2014-2015 southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone season is April 2015. The risk of having an ex-tropical system coming within 550km of the country during the forecast period (March – May 2015) remains slightly elevated compared to normal.
http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1503/SCO_Mar2015_final_.pdf

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