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ANZAC Weekend weather

ANZAC Weekend weather


Changeable weather is expected everywhere this long weekend, particularly towards the end, says NIWA’s lead forecaster, Chris Brandolino.


New Zealand will experience a transition from strong high pressure dominating our weather to low pressure on Sunday and especially Monday. And with change comes a higher chance of turbulent times.

Saturday looks to be the best day for most of New Zealand. This bodes well for the ANZAC dawn services across the country at dawn. For the North Island, any showers are likely to be on east and northeast shores as the flow remains onshore from the northeast.

The South Island should be mostly dry for those away from the central and lower West Coast, where showers will be on the increase near sunrise. Additionally, northeast to northwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching storm system on Saturday, with gale force wind gusts possible in exposed areas of the central and lower West Coast. Those locations aside, Saturday is looking unseasonably warm for the South Island as temperatures east of the Divide rise into the lower 20s in Dunedin to Christchurch.

Temperatures for the North Island will be not quite as warm, but should still manage to rise to near or just above 20°C. By Sunday, one wave of low pressure is forecast to move over the far southern parts of the South Island. Consequently, widespread rain will fall along and west of the Divide, with locally heavy rain possible, if not likely. Some showers will likely spill over the Divide and affect parts of eastern Canterbury, particularly over the eastern foothills.

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The lowest chance for rain is over the Otago and Marlborough regions. Areas north of the storm centre will feel the impacts of the pressure squeeze between the low over Southland and the strong high centred east of the Chathams.

The pressure gradient (the change in air pressure over distance) will mean near gale force to gale force wind gusts for many exposed areas of the West Coast region and eventually further north for areas around the Cook Strait from the Tasman region to Wellington. For the North Island, the high pressure will continue to leave much of the island largely dry, except for the odd shower, as temperatures remain unseasonably warm for this time of year.

On Monday, a second and stronger area of low pressure is forecast to track southeast over the central portion of South Island. Consequently, rain will be more widespread, and likely heavy, over much of the country. However, eastern sides of the islands (Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay as well as eastern Canterbury) may miss meaningful rainfall as the drying effects of the descending air are realised.

Accompanying the rain will be a brisk north to northwest wind for the upper South Island and the whole of the North Island. In fact, gale force wind gusts may be common over much of the island Mondayafternoon and evening.

In spite of the cloud and rain, temperatures will likely close in on 20°C for many North Island locations as the brisk north to northwest wind pumps warm and moist air in from the tropics. There may even be enough instability for thunderstorms over parts of the North Island. Any thunderstorms will have the potential to bring even heavier rainfall and stronger wind gusts.

Once the low moves to our east, much cooler air will filter into the country from southwest to northeastTuesday and Wednesday. The arrival of the cooler air will trigger additional showers, and for North Island locations, possibly some thunderstorms.

More specifically:
Auckland:
Saturday: More sun than cloud. Slight chance for a shower. Light east to northeast winds. Max 20 Min14
Sunday: Fine day with increasing afternoon cloud. Max 20 Min 16
Monday: Windy and humid with showers increasing to steadier rain. Rain could be heavy. Risk for a thunderstorm. Max 19 Min 15

Hamilton:
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with light east to northeast winds. Max 18 Min 9
Sunday: Mixture of sun and cloud in the morning with increasing cloud cover into the afternoon. Max 18Min 9
Monday: Windy with showers increasing to steady rain. Rain could be heavy. Risk of a thunderstorm.Max 18 Min 11

Tauranga:
Saturday: Sun and cloud. Slight chance of scattered showers in the afternoon. Max 18 Min 12
Sunday: Mixture of sun and cloud in the morning with increasing cloud cover into the afternoon. Slight chance of light scattered showers throughout the day Max 17 Min 15
Monday: Windy with scattered morning showers becoming more widespread. Risk for a thunderstorms or heavy downpours. Max 20 Min 16

Wellington:
Saturday: A sunny day with moderate northeasterly winds. Max 19 Min 15
Sunday: Fine day with increasing cloud cover into the afternoon. Chance of an evening shower. Strong northeasterlies. Max 18 Min 16
Monday: Periods of rain along with gale force northerly gusts. Max 18 Min 14

Christchurch:
Saturday: Sunny throughout the day with rapidly warming temperatures due to a foehn breeze. Max 23Min 12
Sunday: Largely overcast day with gusty wind and scattered showers. Greatest shower threat west. Max20 Min 14
Monday: Cloudy with showers around. Max 16 Min 9

Dunedin:
Saturday: Mixture of sun and cloud in the morning with increasing cloud cover into the afternoon. Max20 Min 14
Sunday: Morning cloud and showers with improving conditions later in the day. Max 16 Min 10
Monday: Overcast day with showers likely, especially for the afternoon. Southerly change to bring cooler afternoon weather late. Max 13 Min 8

ends

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