Approach to earthquake strengthening misses the mark

New report finds Minister’s ‘more targeted approach’ to earthquake strengthening misses the mark

A new report by EBSS, a society advocating for an evidence based seismic strengthening regime, has found flaws with the new seismic strengthening proposals announced by Building and Housing Minister, Dr Nick Smith.

In a speech in Ashburton last Sunday the Minister announced a set of changes that would ensure the regime is “proportionate to the risk, that the costs are minimised and that we retain as much of our built heritage as possible”.

The report, ‘The Minister’s new clothes’ finds that:

• The Minister’s proposals miss the main point of what is wrong with the current regime – it still requires many low earthquake risk buildings to be strengthened. An occupier of a defective unreinforced masonry building in Auckland has only a 1 in 60,000,000 chance of dying in an earthquake in that building per year, approximately 4,000 times less risky than flying (per hour).
•
• The extended strengthening deadlines will be of little consolation to owners of low risk buildings that are designated earthquake prone, the label itself is enough to create a misunderstanding of risk and devalue the building.
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• The Minister claims that the policy will save 330 lives over the next century, but a GNS Science report estimated the total number of deaths without the changes over the next century to be only 96.
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• Seismic strengthening will cost approximately $6 billion, significantly more than Nick Smith’s figure of $777 million.
•
Ian Harrison, chairman of EBSS and a former World Bank economist says:

“Nick Smith has continued to rely on the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering’s %NBS risk measurement framework in his proposals, despite the absurd earthquake-prone designations it produces in low risk areas, such as Auckland.”

“The Minister accepts the 34%NBS figure is arbitrary. Important policy decisions should be based on sound cost/benefit analysis and not chosen arbitrarily.”

“Our report finds that the proposed changes continue to significantly overestimate the risks to occupants of so-called earthquake prone buildings, and dramatically underestimate the cost of bringing buildings up to the new requirements.”

“The Minister has set out a set of deadlines for the completion of the evaluations, but MBIE could well push for earlier deadlines for certain classes of buildings. It will be a lottery whether a particular building is assessed early or late. Once a building is assessed as ‘earthquake prone’, it will be slapped with an orange or red notice that could have a devastating impact on its value.”

“We are urging the Government to go back to the drawing board and this time pay attention to the expert economic and risk analysis.”

Questions and answers

What is EBSS (Evidence Based Seismic Strengthening)?
EBSS (Evidence Based Seismic Strengthening) is a society established in 2014 to promote rational, evidenced based seismic strengthening policies. EBSS promotes an alternative evidence based seismic risk assessment framework, lobbies government to implement evidence based seismic strengthening policies and provides assistance to building owners who may have received poor professional advice.

Who is Ian Harrison?
Ian is the chairman of EBSS and principal of TailRisk Economics. He has a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration (Honours) from Victoria University Wellington, and a Master of Public Policy from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. Previously he worked with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements.

Where can I get more information?

EBSS’ full response is available at http://ebss.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Ministers-new-clothes.pdf

EBSS’ full explanation on why the NZSEE %NBS framework does not work:http://ebss.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Earthquake-NBS-doesnt-work.pdf

Dr Nick Smith’s release and full speech.

For further information on EBSS please visit http://www.ebss.org.nz. The papers pagecontains a number of further relevant articles.

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