Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 

New Paper Suggests No Warming in NZ in Past 100 Years

New Paper Suggests No Warming in NZ in Past 100 Years

New Zealand may not have warmed at all in the past 100 years, according to a peer-reviewed paper published in the international science journal, Environmental Modeling & Assessment. The paper, “A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand,” by New Zealand authors, Chris De Freitas, Bob Dedekind and Barry Brill, covering the period 1909-2009, shows an increase of 0.28 degrees C, +/- 0.29 degrees/century; compared with the current official NIWA 7-station (7SS) series showing an increase of nearly 1 degree C.

The government must take this new finding into account in future climate policy development, says Prof Robert M. Carter, a graduate of Otago University and Honorary Fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand.

Professor Carter explains: “To place a rate of warming of 0.28 deg. C in context, extensive geological data sets show that rates of temperature change have varied naturally by up to plus and minus 2.5 deg. C/century during the last 10,000 years (i.e., through the interglacial warm period that we currently live in). In other words, pre-historic rates of natural change exceeded the warming in New Zealand over the last century by as much as 10 times."

“Furthermore, the margin for error associated with de Freitas et al.’s warming estimate is plus or minus 0.29 deg. C/century. In other words, statistically, this is indistinguishable from no warming at all in New Zealand over the last 100 years.

“The De Freitas et al. 2015 7SS New Zealand temperature record now being an established and peer-reviewed result surely requires that the Government incorporates it into future climate policy development,” said Professor Carter.

In 1980, Dr M.J. Salinger applied a new statistical technique of homogenisation to the period of New Zealand record between 1853 and 1975, using data from seven geographically spread observing stations. This seven-station series (7SS) showed a rate of warming of about 1 deg. C/century, which figure was subsequently widely factored into climate policy determinations in New Zealand.

In this new paper, the authors have undertaken an updated reanalysis of the 7SS record. They say they have followed strictly the statistical technique pioneered by Salinger (as published in a paper by Rhoades & Salinger in 1993), though incorporating subsequent data corrections identified in the scientific literature, and provide a detailed schedule of the adjustments that were made in their analysis.

Full paper here: http://tinyurl.com/nv9s9p4


Ends


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Rocket Lab: Launch Expected

Rocket Lab has delayed the roll out of the launch vehicle called Electron by one day, due to weather conditions. The planned launch attempt will now take place on Tuesday, May 23, 2017. More>>

ALSO:

Budget: Irrigate (Good Times, Come On!)

Additional grant funding of $26.7 million over the next three years plus a capital boost of $63 million towards irrigation investments in Budget 2017 will deliver economic and environmental benefits through better use of water... More>>

ALSO:

Silver Fern Farms: Proposal To Close Fairton Sheepmeat Plant

Silver Fern Farms has advised its people of the proposal to permanently close the site, and has discussed potential transfer options to its other sites in the region as part of the consultation process...
More>>

ALSO:

MPI: Myrtle Rust Appears In Taranaki

The nursery in Waitara (just north of New Plymouth) reported suspected myrtle rust symptoms on young plants to the Ministry’s 0800 number yesterday (Tuesday). More>>

ALSO: