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Christmas forecast: a plethora of possibilities
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2016
Christmas forecast: a
plethora of possibilities
Uncertainty abounds.
Tropical Depression 04F is set to become the first Tropical Cyclone of the season in the Southwest Pacific, about 300km north-west of Nadi, Fiji.
From the track of the storm, to the eventual strength and impact around the Southwest Pacific, quite a bit is still up in the air.
And that’s what is making it more difficult than usual for NIWA climate scientists to predict the weather on Christmas Day.
What
do we know?
The storm is producing 45km/h sustained winds
and gusts to 60 km/h.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are
occurring along and to the west of Fiji’s main
island.
What do we expect short term?
The storm is
anticipated to strengthen into Tropical Cyclone Bart later
in the next 24 to 48 hours as it slowly tracks southward,
west of Fiji.
Squally rain and thunderstorms are expected
across Fiji this weekend, possibly leading to
flooding.
What do we expect long term?
Early next
week, the storm is expected to slowly track southward into
the open waters of the South Pacific.
Thereafter, there
are myriad of potential track and intensity outcomes, all of
which makes the holiday weather particularly difficult to
predict this far out.
There is at least some risk for the
storm (or what is left of it) to have an impact around New
Zealand in the days leading up to Christmas or on Christmas
Day itself.
If it follows track A on the graphic, then
active weather over the Tasman Sea could eventually spill
down and impact New Zealand over Christmas.
If the system tracks southeast - track B - then parts of New Zealand may be in store for some wet, warm, humid and gusty Christmas conditions. Track C offers cooler, drier and more settled weather.
Tracks B and C could generate an unusually heavy swell along the east coast of the North Island (surfers take note!). Finally, track D might imply a weaker storm away from New Zealand, giving settled weather a better chance.
In conclusion: this is a fluid weather situation that is likely to change over the next few days.
ends
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