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Cyclone Cook and flood risk - Expert Reaction

Cyclone Cook and flood risk - Expert Reaction
13 April 2017


A mere week after the tail end of Tropical Cyclone Debbie hit the North Island, another cyclone is on its way.


The MetService is warning Kiwis that Cyclone Cook could bring heavy rainfall especially to areas already saturated from last week.

The SMC asked experts to comment on the impending storm and risk of flood. Please feel free to use these comments in your reporting - the full version of Professor Glavovic's Q&A is available on our website.

Associate Professor Asaad Shamseldin, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, comments:

"The recent cyclone episodes and the associated flood events around New Zealand is a reminder to all of us that we as a nation are vulnerable to floods. Once again, the recent flood events have demonstrated that they can have very adverse effects on communities causing damages, and trauma as well as disrupting daily lives.

"They are also a reminder about what can happen as a result of climate change in which extreme flood events may become the norm."

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Dr Judy Lawrence, Senior Research Fellow, NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, comments:

"The planning that councils do with their communities need to factor in the prospect of more frequent high-rainfall events and storm surge using national guidance on a range of possible scenarios of the future as informed by NIWA.

"This planning with communities can be reflected in the options and their implementation through adaptive pathways so that flexibility is built in for adjustments over time.

"In particular, such considerations are essential for decisions taken today for intensification and new developments, services and infrastructure that will last for long timeframes and have to respond to changing climate conditions.

"By doing this the burden on emergency response and our communities will be lessened. A good example of such planning is currently underway by the three Hawkes Bay councils with community panels."


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Q&A with Professor Bruce Glavovic, EQC Chair in Natural Hazards Planning, Massey University.
The following is an excerpt, the full Q&A is available on our website.


Why do some people live in flood zones?

“New Zealand is a landscape of many physical perils – from earthquakes to landslides to floods. The personal and community toll of these extreme events is terrible, but there are three main reasons people life in harm’s way:

• Legacy development: Historically, people chose to settle in places where they had access to water, food, safe anchorage, etc. Near rivers was often very appealing.

• We are attracted to beautiful places – seashores, rivers, places with a view; and we discount the natural hazard risk (it won’t happen to us) – hence the pressure to live at the coast.

• Property development process: Seeks to profit out of new development – buy cheap land and convert to residential or industrial development. Case made for ‘progress’; natural hazard risk is discounted.

“Importantly, NZ communities face not only natural hazards, like earthquakes, we also face slow onset change due to climate and wider environmental change. The latter can and will compound extreme events, e.g., flooding – or the opposite, droughts – may be exacerbated in some parts of the country.

“We are facing rising sea levels – not a debate; a reality. Moreover, these environmental changes are superimposed on societal changes – demographically, economically, culturally, etc.

“We need a robust community planning and decision-making system to enable communities to deal with this reality. Our current statutory framework for planning has many strengths but it is not designed for the challenges of the 21st Century.”

Would those houses in flood zones be there if they were built today? (eg Anzac Parade in Whanganui)

“Our planning system requires local authorities to identify natural hazards and to mitigate (reduce) potential impacts (not necessarily avoid the hazard). There is no requirement to avoid putting people in harm’s way; just that we mitigate the impacts.

“The burden falls on local authorities – often without the capacity and resources to adopt proactive, strategic approaches to avoid exposure to harm or the wherewithal to reduce the risk facing communities already living in harm’s way (due to legacy development).

“It is unlikely that local authorities would allow new development to take place in areas subject to a 1:50 year flood (2% chance of a flood in any year) or a 1:100 year flood (1% chance of a flood in any year). But what if development was allowed in such places in the past (or on steep slopes prone to landslides; liquefaction ground; etc.)?

“Natural hazards are only one of many issues that need to be considered in deciding on new development. We also have to consider factors like relationship to existing development and cost of connecting infrastructure, roading, etc.

“Natural hazard risk is not always a priority. Despite scientific knowledge about flood and other natural hazard risk, there is in-built pressure to discount this risk and to approve development – because this is seen to meet needs in places under development pressure; and even areas not under pressure. E.g., building on liquefaction-prone soils; on low-lying coastal areas, etc.”

What do we need to look at for the future?

“The critical question is how to connect the formal and informal institutional arrangements that together shape community decision-making. Most importantly, we need to open up, not close down the opportunity for community conversations about natural hazard risk and deeper concerns about resilience and sustainability.

“For instance, what is the best future course of action for a community that has experienced repeat flood events in recent decades? There are many such communities around NZ. Many people living in at-risk location have deep spiritual, cultural and personal ties to the places they live. But if there is a real prospect of loss of life and the things we hold dear, at what point do we need to consider relocation or managed retreat? How do we have such difficult conversations?

“The elephant in the room is what our communities face in a changing climate: with 95+% of population living within 10km of the seashore – how are we going to deal with rising sea levels?

“Sea level rise is a certainty – what is uncertain is quite how fast it is going to rise and what the locality specific impacts are going to be in the distant future.

“But we cannot afford to postpone community discussions about what this means for us in NZ.

“There is an urgent need for leadership – from Government, civil society, the private sector, science and the media to address this question: to open up the difficult conversations that are necessary to build resilience in the face of waves of adversity.

“This is an issue of much deeper importance than the urgent problem of Auckland housing that dominates contemporary political debate.

“We need to create safe spaces for communities to have difficult conversations about how to future proof our communities. Only then will we be able to weather storms like those hitting the country now; and prepare for a future characterised by complexity, uncertainty, change and contestation.”


ends

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