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New Tasman bush fire - Expert Reaction
A new bush fire has broken out near
Nelson, as warm and extremely dry conditions persist in
the region.
Police have told residents living on
a stretch of Moutere Highway to evacuate and the following
up with evacuation patrols. Today was the day the State of
Civil Defence Emergency expired in the region, following the
fire that began in nearby Pigeon Valley
three weeks ago.
This new fire is understood
to be outside the original wildfire zone and moving in an
easterly direction. A front is approaching the region
tonight, but experts say it will not bring much
relief.
The SMC asked experts to comment on
conditions that may affect the fire - please feel free to
use these comments in your reporting. We'll send updates
with further comments as they come in.
________________________________________
Georgina
Griffiths, meteorologist, MetService,
comments:
“This evening’s front produces very little for Nelson. Some in the Nelson region will get a sprinkle but it will be so little.
“Basically in the next five days, there’s virtually nothing of note for Nelson in terms of rain. It looks very dry.
“In the longer term, it looks like if we look at the broad range heading into March that drier expectation continues. New Zealand is suffering from high pressure in that region.
“The coming fortnight looks to be relatively dry for Nelson and doesn’t look likely to yield decent rainfall.
“I did run the numbers and, according to the airport record which dates back to 1941, we are currently on track for Nelson to have the driest January and February on record with a total of 14mm of rainfall.
“It’s a bit unusual that we have seen these dry months back-to-back.
“There was 8mm for the region last month and currently 6mm for February, and that’s really notable and obviously contributing to the fire.”
No conflicts
of interest
statement
________________________________________
Ben
Noll, meteorologist, Niwa, comments:
"According to the New Zealand Drought Index, parts of the Tasman District are now experiencing severe drought conditions. Drought conditions are present in and around the new Redwood Valley fire.
"Richmond has recorded just 2.4 millimetres of rain so far this February.
"Since the start of 2019, Richmond has had only two days where daily rainfall exceeded 1mm and one day where daily rainfall exceeded 5mm.
"Between the January 16 and February 24, a 40 day dry spell occurred, which is, preliminarily, the 4th-equal longest dry spell on record. A dry spell is defined as a day with less than 1mm of rain.
"For the summer season as a whole, Nelson is tracking toward its third driest summer on record with just 64 mm. Appleby is also tracking toward its third driest summer on record.
"Nelson is tracking for its third warmest summer on record.
"Gusty winds have occurred in the Nelson area today (Wednesday), up to 46 km/h so far, and forecast to gust up to 60-70 km/h upon a frontal passage during the afternoon and evening."
Conflict of interest statement:
None declared
________________________________________
Rob
Kerr, meteorologist, MetService,
comments:
"Between 4pm and 7pm there might be a few spots of rain across the area where we think the fire is.
"Their best chance of any precipitation is between 4pm and 7pm tonight, but I would not be surprised if they got nothing.
"There was only 3-4 millimetres of rain across the region when we had strong southerlies on Sunday morning. That was the best chance of rain they had and they got very little. Nelson got 0.6mm."
Conflict of interest statement: None declared
ends
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