Cablegate: Undp Resrep On Abuja Agreement, Un Engagement

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLASSIFIED PTO0177

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00
DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------2693B7 280803Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9846
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002871

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT
WITH GOZ

-------
SUMMARY
-------

1. (U) VICTOR ANGELO, THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE
HOSTED A SEPTEMBER 26 BRIEFING FOR AMBASSADORS OF WESTERN
DIPLOMATS TO UPDATE ON THE PROGRESS CONCERNING THE ABUJA
ACCORDS (AA). HE HAD HOSTED EARLIER IN THE DAY A MEETING
WITH THE G-77 TO DISCUSS THE SAME TOPIC. HE DESCRIBED
SIX CONCERNS AND THE STEPS THAT UN HAD TAKEN IN
NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOZ. IN A FOLLOWING QUESTION AND
ANSWER SESSION, ANGELO SAID THAT HE EXPECTS THE GOZ TO
WELCOME INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS ONLY IN A BRIEF
WINDOW PRECEDING THE ELECTIONS. BOTH THE UN AND THE
DIPLOMATS PRESENT EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE LACK OF
PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE ABUJA ACCORDS. IF FIGURES
BACKING SOME OF ANGELO'S CONCERNS ARE CORRECT, ZIMBABWE'S
FOREX SITUATION AND ECONOMIC CRISIS COULD DEEPEN
DRAMATICALLY IN 2002.

-------------------------------------
SPEED-UP ABUJA ACCORDS IMPLEMENTATION
-------------------------------------

2. (U) THE UNDP'S FIRST CONCERN IS SPEEDING UP
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA. ANGELO EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD
MET WITH THE GOZ AT MANY LEVELS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE
POLITBURO, THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE, THE SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT, TO URGE PROGRESS ON SEVERAL CONFIDENCE
BUILDING MEASURES (CBMS). THESE INCLUDE NO FURTHER
OCCUPATIONS (THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 50 REPORTED NEW
OCCUPATIONS SINCE THE AA); A DEMONSTRATED RESPECT FOR THE
RULE OF LAW (ROL) BY MOVING ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS TO FARMS
LEGALLY DESIGNATED FOR ACQUISITION OR THOSE
FARMS ON OFFER; APPROVAL FOR DEPLOYMENT OF A UNDP
ASSESSMENT TEAM WHOSE TERMS OF REFERENCE WOULD BE TO
DETERMINE WHAT IS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND; AND
CLARIFICATION OF IMMEDIATE STEPS THE GOZ WILL TAKE AS
PART OF THE PROCESS. UNDP ALSO WANTS TO KNOW WHAT ROLE
THEY WILL BE EXPECTED TO PLAY. ANGELO GAVE AN EXAMPLE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 01 OF 03 280802Z
OF THE DILEMMA THAT THE GOZ FACES: IF THE GOZ NUMBER OF
7,889 FAMILIES OF ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS IS USED, THERE ARE A
TREMENDOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO BE MOVED. HOWEVER, TO
DATE ONLY FIVE FARMS HAVE GONE THROUGH THE ADMINISTRATIVE
COURTS AND ACTUALLY BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED.

3. (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE SYG DETERMINED THAT THE UN
HAS WAITED LONG ENOUGH FOR A RESPONSE FROM THE GOZ, AND
AS A RESULT MARK MALLOCH-BROWN SENT A LETTER TO FOREIGN
MINISTER MUDENGE (DELIVERED IN NEW YORK ON SEPTEMBER 21
AND SEPTEMBER 23 IN ZIMBABWE--COPY NOT SHARED) THAT
REPORTEDLY ADDRESSED (1) HOW THE UN SEES ITS ROLE,
(APPARENTLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH-
BROWN LETTER); (2) PROPOSED POTENTIAL NEXT STEPS; (3) THE
FOREIGN MINISTER'S BRIEFING OF THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON
SEPTEMBER 20 AND APPRECIATION FOR THE PUBLIC GOZ
ENDORSEMENT OF THE AA; (4) THE GOZ'S DECEMBER 2000
PROPOSALS; (5) THE UN'S READINESS TO WORK WITH THE GOZ ON
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA; (6) UNDP'S NEED FOR PERMISSION
TO SEND IN AN ASSESSMENT TEAM HEADED BY A DEPUTY UNDER
SECRETARY ON SEPTEMBER 25 TO IDENTIFY CAPACITY

SIPDIS
CONSTRAINTS IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA, TO IDENTIFY
HUMANITARIAN NEEDS, AND TO OUTLINE WHAT COULD BE AN
ACCEPTABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM; AND (7) A REPLY FROM THE
FOREIGN MINISTER BEFORE HE COMMENCED HIS EXTENDED TRAVEL
TO SOUTH EAST ASIA AND THEN BRISBANE. THE FOREIGN
MINISTER DEPARTED SEPTEMBER 26 WITHOUT REPLYING, ALTHOUGH
THE RESREP WAS TOLD THE PRESIDENCY HAD APPROVED THE
LETTER AND UN EXPECTS A RESPONSE.

4. (U) THE RESREP ALSO REPORTED THAT VICE PRESIDENT
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 HARARE 02871 01 OF 03 280802Z
MSIKA, CHAIRMAN OF THE GOZ LAND COMMITTEE, HELD A MEETING
ON 9/19 WITH GOVERNORS, PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATORS, THE
ZRP, AND REPRESENTATIVES OF THE WAR VETERANS. THE
POLICIES ANNOUNCED INCLUDED (1) AN IMMEDIATE RETURN TO
THE ROL; (2) SUSPENSION OF THE A-2 RESETTLEMENT SCHEMES
FOR SMALL SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS THAT HAD BEEN DUE TO
BE LAUNCHED BY THE MINISTER OF AG; (3) REMOVAL OF ILLEGAL
SETTLERS BY THE ZRP; AND (5) EMPHASIS THAT NO CRIMINAL OR
ILLEGAL ACTS WOULD BE TOLERATED. IMPLEMENTATION WAS DUE
TO BEGIN ON 9/25, BUT NOTHING CONCRETE HAS OCCURRED ON
THE GROUND.

---------------
DOMESTIC DIALOG
---------------

5. (U) THE RESREP NEXT DISCUSSED THE ISSUE OF A DOMESTIC
DIALOG AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC HEADS OF STATE. HE
INDICATED THAT HE WAS INITIALLY ENCOURAGED BY THE CFU AND
AGS AGREEMENT TO SUSPEND THE SUPREME COURT HEARING ON THE
LEGALITY OF THE LAND REFORM PROGRAM PENDING DIALOG.
HOWEVER, A SEPTEMBER 24 MEETING BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO0178

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00
DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------2693BF 280803Z /38
O 280738Z SEP 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9847
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002871

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT
WITH GOZ

GOZ WAS NOT FRUITFUL, AND THE PARTIES WENT BACK TO THE
COURTS ON SEPTEMBER 26. A RULING IS EXPECTED SHORTLY,
ALTHOUGH EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE FINAL JUDGMENT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE BRISBANE CHOGM MEETINGS.

6. (U) LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE U.S. ASKED IF ANY
PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE CONCERNING THE SADC LEADERS'
RECOMMENDATION THAT THE PARLIAMENT OF ZIMBABWE FORM A
BIPARTISAN COMMITTEE TO EXAMINE THE ISSUE OF LAND REFORM.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z
THE RESREP ADVISED THAT HE HAD MET WITH SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA WHO INFORMED HIM THAT A BIPARTISAN
PARLIAMENTARY LAND AND AGRICULTURE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE
ALREADY EXISTS. THE RESREP TOLD THE SPEAKER THAT BOTH
UNDP AND USAID, THE PRINCIPAL DONORS WHO ASSIST
PARLIAMENT, STAND READY TO HELP STRENGTHEN THIS COMMITTEE
AS NEEDED.

-----------------------------
CREDIBLE REPORTING/MONITORING
-----------------------------

7. (U) AN FAO/WFP TEAM IS CURRENTLY IN-COUNTRY ASSESSING
CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS OF THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE TO
ESTABLISH A CREDIBLE, INDEPENDENT MONITORING SYSTEMS.
LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE EU SOUGHT CLARIFICATION OF THE
FAO TEAM'S TERMS OF REFERENCE AND WHETHER IT WAS CAPACITY
BUILDING WITH THE FOCUS OF LAND REFORM IMPLEMENTATION.
ANGELO SAID THE TEAM WAS ASSESSING WHAT STEPS WERE NEEDED
TO ESTABLISH A MONITORING SYSTEM FOR THE CBMS, AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA.

--------------------------------
THE UP-COMING AGRICULTURE SEASON
--------------------------------

8. (U) THE FOURTH UNDP CONCERN CENTERS ON THE UP-COMING
AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL AND
RESETTLED FARMERS TO UNDERTAKE LAND PREPARATION AND
PLANTING IN ADVANCE OF THE RAINS IN LATE
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER. THE RESREP EXUDED PESSIMISIAM ON THIS
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z
ISSUE. HE SAID THAT EVEN IF THE GOZ FIGURE OF 120,000
RESETTLED FARMERS IS ACCEPTED, AND ONE ASSUMES A MINIMUM
OF ONE HECTARE PER FAMILY, ONLY 5,249 HECTARES HAVE BEEN
PLOWED IN RESETTLEMENT AREAS AS OF LATE SEPTEMBER. IN
TERMS OF THE Z$6.0 BILLION BUDGET APPROVED FOR
RESETTLEMENT SUPPORT, ONLY $200 MILLION HAS BEEN
DISBURSED. UN TECHNICAL EXPERTS ESTIMATE ON THE BASIS OF
CURRENT LAND PREPARATION THAT THE 180,000 MT OF TOBACCO
HARVESTED THIS SEASON WILL SHRINK TO LESS THAN 100,000 MT
NEXT YEAR.

9. (U) COMMENT: ACCORDING TO THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY,
INTERNATIONAL BUYERS REQUIRE A MINIMUM OF 150,000 MT FROM
ZIMBABWE. IF THIS AMOUNT IS NOT FORTHCOMING, BUYERS WILL
SEEK OTHER MARKETS. GIVEN THAT THEY MUST ALSO UNDERTAKE
REMIXING/FORMULATION OF BLENDS, IT WILL BE YEARS BEFORE
WORLD BUYERS RETURN TO ZIMBABWE EVEN IF THE TOBACCO
INDUSTRY REBOUNDS. WE ARE TOLD THAT AFTER THE SANCTIONS
IN THE 1970S, IT TOOK TEN YEARS TO ATTRACT THE BUYERS TO
THE ZIMBABWE MARKET. END COMMENT.

-----------------------
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
-----------------------

10. (U) THE UN RELIEF AND REHABILITATION SECRETARIAT IS
FUNCTIONING. THREE WFP STAFF ARE ASSIGNED AND AN INTERIM
COORDINATOR HIRED PENDING FINAL SELECTION OF A HA EXPERT
AS THE COORDINATOR. ANGELO REPORTED THAT BY NEXT WEEK A
MATRIX OF NGO PROGRAMS BY REGION AND TYPE WOULD BE
AVAILABLE.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z

--------------------------------------
THE UN IS ON CALL, BUT WHO IS CALLING?
--------------------------------------

11. (U) ANGELO SUMMARIZED BY SAYING THE UN SYSTEM IS ON
CALL TO ASSIST THE GOZ IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA. KEY TO
THIS WILL BE THE GOZ RESPONSE TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN
LETTER. WHILE ANGELO EXPRESSED HOPE, HE ALSO RECALLED
THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER, WHICH THE GOZ
TOOK THREE MONTHS TO ANSWER.

12. (U) SYG ANAN WROTE TO PRESIDENT MBEKI JUST PRIOR TO
THE SEPTEMBER 10 SADC MEETING IN HARARE SAYING THAT THE
UN HAD NOT RECEIVED A GOZ REQUEST FOR AN INDEPENDENT
ASSESSMENT OF WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND. HE NOTED
THAT THE UN IS WILLING TO RESPOND, BUT STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF AN ASSESSMENT IN ESTABLISHING THE FACTS
CONCERNING THE STATUS OF THE "FAST TRACK" PROGRAM.

13. (U) THE UK ASKED ABOUT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR
THE ASSESSMENT. THE RESREP RESPONDED THAT THERE WERE

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO0179

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00
DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------2693D2 280803Z /38
O 280738Z SEP 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9848
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002871

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT
WITH GOZ

ISSUES WITH THE TOR AND THAT SOME "REPACKAGING" MIGHT BE
NEEDED. HE OFFERED AN EXAMPLE, SAYING THE GOZ HAD
OBJECTED TO THE TASK OF "ASSESSING LEGITIMACY OF CURRENT
SETTLERS" WHICH, OF COURSE, IS CRITICAL TO ASSESSING
WHETHER THE GOZ IS FOLLOWING THEIR OWN BENEFICIARY
SELECTION CRITERIA.

------------------------
OTHER COMMENTS/QUESTIONS
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 HARARE 02871 03 OF 03 280803Z
------------------------

-- SWEDEN ASKED ABOUT PROGRESS ON OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
AA, SPECIFICALLY ELECTION OBSERVATION/MONITORING. THE
RESREP SAID SARDONICALLY THAT HE EXPECTED THE GOZ TO
WELCOME INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 15 DAYS BEFORE THE
ELECTIONS, REMINDING THE GROUP THAT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT
CALLED FOR "INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS TO RESPOND POSITIVELY
TO ANY GOZ REQUEST IN SUPPORT OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS."

-- THE U.S. ASKED THE RESREP TO COMMENT ON GOZ
WILLINGNESS TO CONSIDER THE BROADER ROL LAW ISSUES BEYOND
THE QUESTION OF ROL CONCERNING LAND. THE RESREP SAID
THAT THIS WAS MORE "COMPLEX" BUT THAT THE ABUJA ACCORDS
REFERRED TO THE ROL "THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY" AND
SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT LAND CANNOT BE SEPARATED FROM
DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND THE ECONOMY.

-- GERMANY ASKED ABOUT THE SPEED AT WHICH DONOR FUNDS
MIGHT BE MADE AVAILABLE FOR LAND REFORM, TO WHICH ANGELO
RESPONDED THAT THE GOZ WOULD LIKE TO SEE A CBM FROM THE
DONORS THAT ENTAILED DEPOSIT OF RESOURCES IN A TRUST FUND
TO BE RELEASED UPON SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT ON THE LAND
REFORM PROGRAM. HE SAID THE GOZ UNDERSTOOD THAT SUCH
FUNDS WOULD BE RETURNED TO THE DONORS IF THE LAND REFORM
DID NOT SUCCEED.

-- NORWAY ASKED ABOUT THE SADC/G-77 MEETING EARLIER IN
THE DAY AND WHAT THE IMPRESSIONS OF THESE DIPLOMATS WERE.
THE RESREP SAID THE SADC COUNTRIES WERE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE LAGGARDLY IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA, AND SEVERAL
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 03 OF 03 280803Z
PRESSED THE UN TO PROCEED WITH THE ASSESSMENT AT ONCE.
THE RESREP EXPLAINED THAT IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO IMPOSE A
TEAM WITHOUT GOZ AGREEMENT.

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COMMENT
-------

14. (SBU) ANGELO WAS AS UPBEAT AS POSSIBLE, WHICH WAS
NOT MUCH. IN SIDE CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER DONORS,
SKEPTICISM REIGNED. WE DO NOT KNOW THE BASIS FOR
ANGELO'S INFORMATION ON REDUCED TOBACCO CULTIVATION - GOZ
STATISTICS, SITE VISITS, FLIGHT TRANSECTS - BUT IF HIS
DATA IS CORRECT, ZIMBABWE IS IN FOR AN EVEN ROUGHER
ECONOMIC RIDE TWELVE MONTHS FROM NOW.

ROTH

UNCLASSIFIED

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