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Cablegate: South China View On Ma Ying-Jeou Situation: Will

VZCZCXRO4013
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHGZ #0216 0460727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150727Z FEB 07 ZDK RUEHCB #7287 0520545
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5803
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 000216

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PACOM FOR FPA
STATE FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
SUBJECT: South China View on Ma Ying-jeou Situation: Will
the "Chaos" and Political Jockeying Stabilize Cross-Strait
Relations?

REF: A) Beijing 1064
B) Taipei 376

(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified, please
protect accordingly.

1. (SBU) Professor Zhang Wensheng, Deputy Director of the
Political Research Office at Xiamen University's Taiwan
Research Institute, told Congenoff February 14 that
Taiwan's political scene will be "chaotic" in the aftermath
of Ma Ying-jeou's indictment and resignation as KMT
Chairman. Zhang believes the political struggle between
and within the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions will
intensify, especially as politicians vie aggressively for
designation as the 2008 presidential nominee. Zhang
expects the "chaos" to last until the summer, adding that
Chen Shui-bian may feel less pressured to use the Taiwan
independence issue to draw attention away from his own
corruption problems.

2. (SBU) Despite his indictment and resignation, Ma's
declaration that he will still run in the presidential
election has led to an earlier start of the 2008 campaign
than expected, Zhang said. Zhang said that Wang Jyn-ping
will lose no time in positioning himself for the KMT
nomination, though he might back off a bit if former KMT
Chairman Lien Chan were to contest it as well. Zhang also
thought that Lee Teng-hui, leader of the Taiwan Solidarity
Union, had moderated his pro-independence stance as a
prelude to an alliance with Wang. The number of DPP
candidates will widen, in Zhang's view, as they become
encouraged by the possible loss of one of the KMT's
strongest and most popular leader.

GOLDBERG

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