Cablegate: Gnz Worries Bainimarama Is in a Hole and Still
DE RUEHWL #0302 1030600
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 130600Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4140
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4814
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0649
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE 0587
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000302
STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP
DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL FJ NZ
SUBJECT: GNZ WORRIES BAINIMARAMA IS IN A HOLE AND STILL
REF: SUVA 211
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David J. Keegan,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) The GNZ worries that interim PM Bainimarama is
increasingly fragile and his actions risk throwing the
country into armed conflict. Heather Riddell, Director of
the Pacific Division, calls Bainimarama's measures
restricting the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) "loopy."
Bainimarama has now cut himself off from Fiji's traditional
power base. This will circumscribe his support base and will
add to perceptions that he is running a Fijian Indian
agenda. Riddell observes it seems unlikely Bainimarama will
be able to dig himself out of this hole, and he may become
more desperate as a result.
2. (C) While the GCC is ridden with factions and some
Fijians dislike it, most will be shocked by Bainimarama's
actions. Riddell is particularly concerned that the measures
may make an intra-military reaction more likely, and the
result could be violent mutiny and other bloodshed.
3. (C) Comment. While we are not in a position to assess
MFAT,s concern over possible mutiny and bloodshed, New
Zealand,s analysis and predictions on Fiji have proven
exceptionally reliable over the past few months.