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Cablegate: Governing Coalition Agreement to Be Signed Tomorrow, Gusmao

VZCZCXRO3642
OO RUEHLMC RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHPB
DE RUEHDT #0252 1861232
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 051232Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3612
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0586
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0952
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0186
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0731
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNMCM/MCC COLLECTIVE
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2988

UNCLAS DILI 000252

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SECSTATE FOR EAP/MTS
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT
SUBJECT: GOVERNING COALITION AGREEMENT TO BE SIGNED TOMORROW, GUSMAO
LIKELY TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER


1. (SBU) The last ballot from the June 30 election was counted
at the Dili district counting center at mid-day day July 5;
results of the completed count are reported in paragraph 2. At
approximately 8:00pm local time the same day, we learned that
former President Xanana Gusmao's party, the National Congress
for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), has reached an agreement
with the coalition of the Social Democratic Association of Timor
and the Social Democratic Party (ASDT/PSD) and the Democratic
Party (PD) to form a coalition government. The agreement will
be signed in a public ceremony July 6. A final agreement
regarding who will lead such a government is still pending, but
most expect that Gusmao would ultimately fill the Prime Minister
position. Like most observers, we were anticipating that
coalition discussions would take some time and their quick
conclusion comes as a surprise. Nevertheless, the formal
process of appointing the Government and the Prime Minister must
still follow, and there remains some uncertainty regarding how
this will proceed. According to the constitution, the President
is to appoint the Prime Minister designated either by the party
with the most votes or the alliance of parties with a
parliamentary majority. President Jose Ramos-Horta is
reportedly still in the process of gathering legal advice
regarding whether he can bypass the party with the most votes
(the ruling FRETILIN party) and go directly to appointing a
government designated by a majority alliance. We will continue
to report more details on the coalition and government formation
process in the coming days.

2. (U) With 100% of district counting center results in, the
outcome stands as follows, with the estimated number of seats in
the 65 seat parliament in parentheses:

-- The ruling FRETILIN party has 29% (21)

-- Former President Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for
Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) has 24.1% (18)

-- The coalition of the Social Democratic Association of Timor
and the Social Democratic Party (ASDT/PSD) has 15.8% (11)

-- The Democratic Party (PD) has 11.3% (8)

-- The National Unity Party (PUN), has 4.5% (3)

-- The coalition of KOTA and PPT (the Democratic Alliance) has
3.2 % (2)

-- The National Democratic Union of Timorese Resistance
(UNDERTIM) has 3.2% (2)

Seven of the 14 parties on the ballot, representing nine percent
of the votes cast, failed to reach the three percent threshold
required for parliamentary representation.

KLEMM

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