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Cablegate: Media Reaction; Iran; the Kirchners to the Us; Fujimori

VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1902/01 2671611
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241611Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9327
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001902

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; IRAN; THE KIRCHNERS TO THE US; FUJIMORI
09/24/07

1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend international major stories include expectations regarding
Argentine President Nstor Kirchner's address to the United Nations
General Assembly and how he will discuss the issue of Iran's
cooperation on the AMIA case; as well as the growing chances of war
against Iran; and the important precedent set by the Chilean Supreme
Court of Justice's decision to extradite former Peruvian President
Alberto Fujimori.

2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS

- "As time goes by"

Jorge Elas, international columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacisn,"
comments (09/23) "... By having threatened to declare war against
Iran, Sarkozy placed his bets on an appeasement with the US... What
benefit can Iran's achievement of nuclear autonomy bring to (French
President) Sarkozy and German FM Angela Merkel? None. It would bring
no benefit at any of them or to the US and even less to Israel.

"It is the economy, then. Hence the Sarkozy administration's war
rhetoric, which is conveyed by FM Bernard Kouchner's warning - it is
necessary to 'get ready for the worst.' Is it war? Not necessarily.
He made clear that the worst case could be war in the event
Ahmadinejad does not moderate his nuclear ambitions. He added that
he does not wish the worst to happen, and he did not say that war is
the best choice. Neither did he say that war was his choice,
although neither did he dismiss the hypothesis of a conflict...

"Even the US itself believed for the first time in some years that
Bush was not alone...

"... The bottom line is not only economic but also political
power... - it comes down to just power itself...

"... After Iraq, everybody knows that the medicine can be worse than
the disease. However, they know that lack of action can pose an even
larger risk - that Iran creates the bomb, such as North Korea,
Pakistan, India and Israel, among others. The equation is neither
exclusively economic nor exclusively political.

"Power itself not only lies in the hands of banks and corporations
but it relies on a network of interests in which political gestures
should bring economic benefits and the vice versa."

- "The US expects more concrete signs from Cristina"

Ana Barsn, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarn,"
writes (09/24) "After the tensions created in Washington by the
Buenos Aires Chvez-led anti-Bush rally the often-postponed
bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
FM Jorge Taiana will finally take place on Wednesday in the venue of
the UN General Assembly.


"Since that controversial rally, bilateral talks continued between
US Ambassador Anthony Wayne and Argentine Ambassador to Washington,
Jos Octavio Bordsn. However, the (Rice/Taiana) meeting will be the
first ministerial, which indicates that the US Department of State
is again willing to hold talks.

"As a matter of fact, Deputy Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon has
also confirmed that he will attend the luncheon hosted by the
Council of the Americas in which Senator Cristina Fernndez will be
the keynote speaker...

"A US source told 'Clarn': The climate between the two countries
has again improved.' 'The meeting between Ambassador Wayne and
Cristina in Buenos Aires was highly positive. The old bitterness has
faded.'

"... The two most important topics for the US Department of State
are Iran and Venezuela. US diplomats were surprised by Cristina's
trip to Venezuela and by her address to the Venezuelan Jewish
community.

"Kirchner's address to the UN General Assembly asking for (Iranian)
support in the investigation of the AMIA attack will be carefully
scrutinized. A source told 'Clarn': 'What the Iranian diplomat to
Argentina said is atrocious,' referring to the interview of the
Iranian DCM, in which he said that such a claim from Kirchner at the
UN would mean that 'Argentina is in favor of war.'

"In any event, the US expects more concrete signs from Cristina. Her
speeches will be carefully evaluated not only by members of the Bush

administration..., but also by Democrats who deal with Latin

American issues... Nelson Cunningham, former advisor to John Kerry
for Latin America, said that they want to know whether she will
reposition Argentina in the world."

- "Iran - the unwanted stop on Kirchner's trip"

Carlos Pagni, political analyst of daily-of-record "La Nacisn,"
comments "The AMIA case and the remaining negotiation of
(Argentina's) public debt are two reasons for Nstor Kirchner's
intervention in international politics. They are joined by a
sometimes invisible thread, which will appear on the agenda of the
President and his wife in New York...

"Kirchner will complain that Iran has not cooperated in arresting
Rafsanjani...

"Argentina's intransigence has allies in Washington. Contrary to
what Kirchner might expect, those partners are not the Republicans
but the Democrats. The most hostile leader towards Iran is the head
of the House Foreign Relations Committee, Tom Lantos, who has just
asked the Bush administration to impose sanctions on corporations
doing business with Iran. He mentioned one - Shell. Any more points
of agreement with Kirchner?

"According to a governmental source, the main reason why the
(Argentine) President will not go beyond this alignment with
'hawkish' sectors in the relationship with Tehran is that Kirchner
does not believe the international political system would fully
support his motion. This is the core of his international view. An
future rupture with Iran would imply an alliance with Washington
that would also imply Argentina's direct access to international
funding. However, Kirchner continues to be doomed to the generosity
of Hugo Chvez, who has started to be restrictive... Chvez is a
strident ally of Iran. He frequently visits Ahmadinejad. How (could
Kirchner) offend Chvez without having a conventional source of
funding?"

- "Fujimori - international law has fewer cracks"

Oscar Ral Cardoso, international analyst for leading "Clarn,"
opines (09/22) "The Chilean justice system took an important step in
granting the extradition of former Peruvian President (Fujimori),
who was accused of crimes against humanity. This major step was an
important turning point regarding its behavior on Pinochet... Just a
few judicial experts could question the assumption that the Chilean
Supreme Court of Justice decision to extradite former Peruvian
President Alberto Fujimori could be a more important or stronger
precedent in the evolution of international public law that the 17
months that Chilean Pinochet was compelled to stay in the UK based
on a political decision made by the Blair administration.

"... For the first time in Chile's history, its highest court
decided to extradite a former chief of State based on a request from
the Peruvian Judiciary. In this case, the governments of Lima and
Santiago did not interfere in the handling of the problem and there
was no mediator in the issue."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE

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