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Cablegate: Anc Delegate Distribution and Impact

VZCZCXRO3948
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #3816 3041009
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 311009Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2483
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5007
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9316
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS PRETORIA 003816

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ANC DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION AND IMPACT

REF: PRETORIA 3764

1. (SBU) The ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) in
September determined that the total number of voting
delegates at the ANC's national conference in December will
be 4,075, according to UNISA Professor Dirk Kotze, who said
he received the breakdown from the ANC. In accordance with
the ANC's Constitution, 90 percent, or 3,675 delegates, will
come from the almost 2,700 ANC branches in good standing as
of June 30, 2007. The remaining delegates include 66 NEC
delegates (all 60 current NEC members plus the top six ANC
Official Positions), 68 ANC Women's League delegates, 68 ANC
Youth League delegates, and 22 delegates from each of the
nine provinces. (NOTE: The total number of delegates is
higher than expected as ANC documents have consistently
listed the maximum number of delegates for the 2007
conference as 4,000. END NOTE)

2. (U) The number of branch-level delegates per province,
ranked by size, is as follows:

-- Eastern Cape (906 delegates)
-- KwaZulu-Natal (608 delegates)
-- Limpopo (400 delegates)
-- Free State (363 delegates)
-- Gauteng (354 delegates)
-- Mpumalanga (325 delegates)
-- North West (280 delegates)
-- Northern Cape (220 delegates)
-- Western Cape (219 delegates).

Delegates will be divided among the branches in a two-part
process. First, each branch in good standing will be
allocated one delegate. The remaining delegates will be
divided among branches in the province in proportion to their
membership. In other words, because allocation is done in
two stages (first to the province, then to the branches), the
number of delegates each branch will be able to send is
dependent on the size of the branch and the total number of
members in the province.

3. (U) When compared to 2002 figures, Eastern Cape and
KwaZulu-Natal have maintained the number one and two spots as
far as the number of voting delegates per province. Free
State has increased from 7th place to 4th, Limpopo has moved
from 5th to 3rd, and the Northern Cape has moved from 9th to
8th. Provinces that lost rankings include Gauteng (from 3rd
to 5th), Mpumalanga (4th to 6th), North West (6th to 7th),
and Western Cape (8th to 9th). When compared to provincial
population figures as a whole, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free
State, and Northern Cape will have a disproportionate
influence, while the percentage of delegates allotted to
KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, and Western Cape reflects
less than their proportion of the national population. Only
North West has seven percent of the population and seven
percent of delegates.

4. (SBU) Individual provincial delegations, ANC Leagues, and
the NEC together will have less than 10 percent of the total
delegates. However, the ANCYL and ANCWL could have a
disproportionate impact since some ANC branch delegates could
also come from these leagues.

5. (SBU) COMMENT: It is impossible to predict the outcome of
the ANC succession race based on distribution of delegates
alone for two reasons: first, provinces do not vote as blocks
and second, the branch-level nominations process has just
gotten underway (reftel). With the exception of
KwaZulu-Natal, which is firmly behind ANC Deputy President
Jacob Zuma, most provinces appear divided or undecided.
Knowing the percentage of support each candidate has within a
province would be helpful, but not conclusive. Delegates
"must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving
Q"must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving
the door open for unexpected results. In previous party
elections, when backroom deals produced an uncontested
ballot, delegates' votes were pro-forma. But in what is
likely to be the most contested election in the ANC's 95-year
history, the concept of "free agent delegate" may take on a
whole new meaning. For the first time, delegates will likely
have to weigh a number of competing interests, including
their conscience, morals, ethnicity, pocket books, personal
aspirations, and calls for a united party. END COMMENT.
BOST

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