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Cablegate: Wha a/S Shannon,S September 27, 2007 Meeting With

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O 111602Z OCT 07
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TO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA IMMEDIATE 5901
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RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA IMMEDIATE 4707

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 142845

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017
TAGS: BL BR EC PA UNGA
SUBJECT: WHA A/S SHANNON,S SEPTEMBER 27, 2007 MEETING WITH
BRAZILIAN U/S FOR SOUTH AMERICA JORGE D'ESCRAGOLLE TAUNAY


Classified By: WHA Assistant Secretary of State
Thomas A. Shannon,
Department of State, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (U) September 27, 2007, 5:00 p.m., New York

2. (U) Participants:

United States
A/S Thomas A. Shannon
Scott Miller, WHA Notetaker

Brazil
U/S for South America Jorge D'Escragolle Taunay
Christian Sigueiroa, second secretary, Brazilian Mission to
the U.N.
Wilson Dockhorn, second secretary and assistant to the U/S


3. (C) SUMMARY. A/S Shannon and Brazilian U/S Taunay
discussed developments in Bolivia, impressions of the Correa
administration in Ecuador, and the presidential elections in
Paraguay in a short meeting on the margins of the UNGA. END
SUMMARY.

-------
Bolivia
-------

4. (C) Shannon said that the United States has been quite
active and mostly successful in South America, but noted that
the United States' relationship with Bolivia is becoming more
problematic. Shannon cited several small incidents as well
as the comments by Bolivian officials to DAS MacMullen that
Bolivia has made a decision to distance itself from the
United States. He also expressed disappointment that Brazil
and the United States have offered Bolivia the ability to
enhance productive capacity and access to markets, only to
see Bolivia turn to Cuba and Venezuela.

5. (C) Taunay encouraged the United States to be mindful that
Bolivia has been in a crisis since the beginning of the
Morales administration and that by several criteria the
country is experiencing a revolution.

6. (C) Taunay added that everything is "very political" at
the moment in Bolivia; relationships can be largely shaped by
the interlocutor and often change from day to day. Taunay
attributed the mixed signals emanating from Bolivia in part
to lack of coordination and said he "would not worry too
much." He added that Pablo Salon, who chairs South American
integration meetings, is a moderate with whom the Brazilians
have found they can talk.

7. (C) As for the constituent assembly in Bolivia, Taunay
pointed out that it reflects the deep divisions within
Bolivia and pointed out that the "media luna" will only
accept so much radicalization. Shannon noted that the "media
luna" has leaders who are prepared to fight and agreed with
Taunay that an outbreak of violence would be awful.

-------
Ecuador
-------

8. (C) A/S Shannon noted that Correa may face a more daunting
challenge than Morales, given his lack of congressional
representatives. He indicated that the United States is
working to keep Ecuador close, but that this will be
complicated by Correa's decision not to renew the Manta
airbase lease.

9. (C) Taunay acknowledged that he has a better impression of
Correa than most and finds him to be a good economist one can
reason with. Taunay added that while Correa is
nationalistic, he is not a radical, but closer to a moderate.

-------
Paraguay
-------

10. (C) Taunay said the 2008 presidential elections in
Paraguay are difficult to predict, particularly with the
involvement of former army chief Lino Oviedo. Ultimately,
Taunay thought that with the Colorado party's strong base,
President Duarte will be able to pave a path for his

STATE 00142845 002 OF 002


successor. A/S Shannon cautioned that Duarte is playing a
dangerous game with Oviedo and said he noted ambition but
lack of concrete proposals in his meeting with candidate
Fernando Lugo.
RICE

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