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Cablegate: Brazil Views National Intelligence Report As Positive And

VZCZCXRO3983
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #2227 3390946
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050946Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0584
INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0236
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0113
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 1271
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5524
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7453

UNCLAS BRASILIA 002227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

PLEASE PASS TO IO, IO/T, ISN/NESS Richard J.K. Stratford; and
DOE/MNSA Adam Scheinman, Richard Goorevich, and Melissa Krupa

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG IAEA KNNP NPT TREL BR
SUBJECT: Brazil Views National Intelligence Report as Positive and
Says IAEA Scrutiny of Iran Should Increase

REF: STATE 162558

This cable is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly. Not for internet distribution.

1. (SBU) Summary: On December 4, 2007, per REFTEL POLCouns and
ESTHOff met with the Head of the Ministry of External Relations'
Department of Disarmament and Sensitive Technologies, Minister
Santiago Mourao, to discuss the recent release of the USG National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) regarding Iran's nuclear activities.
The report was released on the eve of IAEA Director General,
ElBaradei's visit to Brazil. Mourao said that in general the GOB
reads the NIE as the USG does, namely that the conclusions of the
report are positive and that international efforts to temporarily
prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state have been
successful. To this end, Mourao stated that continued pressure and
scrutiny of Iran's nuclear activities is necessary. Mourao
suggested that, in light of this new assessment, the scrutiny of
Iran's nuclear activities via the IAEA should take precedence over
pressure via the UN Security Council. End Summary.

2. (SBU) In delivering REFTEL non-paper and NIE key judgments,
POLCouns stressed three key points: 1) Iran's nuclear weapons
development activities stalled in 2003, but it remains unclear
whether Iran still intends develop them in the future; 2)
international pressure and scrutiny of Iran's activities succeeded
in stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program for the moment; and 3)
the USG asks that the international community continue to apply
pressure and scrutiny to Iran's nuclear activities.

3. (SBU) In principle, Mourao said that the GOB agrees with the USG
regarding the implications of the NIE. Mourao understood
immediately the significance of the fact that Iran's nuclear weapons
program was halted in 2003, agreeing that continued pressure and
scrutiny of Iran's nuclear activities is necessary. Mourao
emphasized that the GOB believes, and the NIE demonstrates, that it
was international scrutiny via the IAEA that effectively stalled
Iran's nuclear aspirations. This, he said, should help to "raise
the profile of the IAEA." Thus, Mourao said that the GOB would, as
it has in the past, continue to be insistent with Iran that it
increase its cooperation and transparency regarding IAEA inspections
and the NIE should support international insistence that Iran comply
with IAEA inspections.

4. (SBU) Mourao went on to ask, given that the NIE suggests that
Iran is not an imminent threat with regard to its nuclear weapons
capability, how the NIE would affect ongoing negotiations. POLCouns
replied that it remains important that international efforts to
pressure and scrutinize Iran continue unabated and that these
estimates should not affect negotiations.

COMMENT

5. (SBU) GOB reaction to the NIE seems to be positive overall and it
remains committed to efforts which seek to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons technology. However, Mourao hinted that,
as a result of the NIE, he thought the UNSC should take a lower
profile on the issue in favor of the IAEA. Public reaction to the
NIE should become more evident with the appearance of the news of
its release in local press and during the visit to IAEA Director
General, ElBaradei to Brazil later this week. Post will report on
media reaction in septel. End Comment.

SOBEL

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
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