Cablegate: Aec Two-Year Progress Report Upbeat On Achievements, But

DE RUEHKH #1891/01 3360504
R 020504Z DEC 07 ZDK CTG RUEHLG 6279 3370626




E.O. 12958: N/A

KHARTOUM 00001891 001.2 OF 002

1. (U) SUMMARY: AEC Chairman Tom Vraalsen presented the AEC's
two-year progress report to Sudanese President Al-Bashir on November
3. There has not been any public reaction by the Government as yet,
no doubt because the report notes the major areas of deficiency in
implementation, chief among them the Abyei stalemate. Seeking
balance, the report also emphasizes the areas of successful CPA
implementation. Those who actually read the report will be left
with the impression that a plethora of implementing bodies (and
acronyms) have been created, but also left wondering just how much
work the many agencies have accomplished (in general, not much).
This cable summarizes the report, which is formally titled "Factual
Report on the Status of CPA Implementation, 2007." End Summary

--------------------------------------------- ----
Chairman's Foreword: Some impressive achievements
--------------------------------------------- ----

2. (U) The Report starts with the Chairman's Foreword focusing on
the four working groups - Power Sharing (headed by Italy), Wealth
Sharing (U.S.), Three Areas (Netherlands), and Security Arrangements
(U.K.). The Foreword notes "significant progress achieved by the
parties in implementation of CPA since 2005." Chief among the
accomplishments are the adoption of the Interim National
Constitution (INC) and the Interim Constitution of Southern Sudan
(ICSS), the establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU)
and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), and, not least of all,
"the general compliance with the ceasefire." The Foreword points
out that the ambitious task outlined in the CPA is nothing less than
political nation-building, "a daunting task under the best of
circumstances." The various accomplishments and shortcomings are
put in perspective, in essence that this is a hugely ambitious task,
and much has in fact been accomplished.

Power Sharing: Successes and Shortcomings

3. (U) Much has been accomplished in building the new institutions
called for in the CPA, including the Presidency, the National
Assembly, and the Interim constitution. However, in other areas,
deadlines have not been met and much remains to be done. Among the
successes and shortcomings in implementation:


-- Many bodies created, most are "in operation"
-- Progress in planning census
-- Census pilot project carried out in all states
-- Southern representation on National Constitutional Court
-- National Judicial Service Commission established, training a
national judiciary
-- North/South technical border commission established and
operating, aiming for border demarcation by February 2008
-- Southern and Northern States have adopted state constitutions


-- Abyei interim administrative area council not established
-- No national program for reconciliation and healing
-- Chronic delays in funding hampers census planning
-- National Electoral Law and Commission overdue
-- Continued non-representation of Southerners in Khartoum law
enforcement agencies
-- Commission to safeguard rights of non-Muslims in Khartoum not yet
-- National Civil Service Commission, affirmative action program not
yet operational
-- National Security Act and Council not established
-- Human Rights Commission not established
-- Identification of security organs of the two parties and their
assets not accomplished
-- No Southern representation on National Supreme Court
-- National Land Commission not established

--------------------------------------------- -----
Wealth Sharing: Oil revenues distributed, but more transparency is
--------------------------------------------- -----

4. (U) The U.S.-led Working Group reported that, by and large, the
provisions of the wealth sharing protocol are being met. The
various agencies called for in the protocol are up and running. Oil
revenues are being distributed to the various parties according to
the formula enshrined in the protocol and the CPA. However, the
SPLM is pushing for more transparency along the entire stream of oil
production. For example, the SPLM has concerns regarding the levels
of transport and management fees being deducted from the profits.
For its part, the NCP claims that the SPLM/GOSS has usurped some
functions of the national government in the South, particularly
collection of customs duties.

KHARTOUM 00001891 002 OF 002

5. (U) Abyei accounts for the most significant shortcoming in
wealth sharing: because the Abyei area borders have not been
agreed, the entitlement to oil revenues from the area have not been
determined, and transfers of funds has not taken place.

Three Areas: No progress on Abyei

6. (U) The Abyei area dominates this working group, with little
progress to report. The report states that "Progress with regard to
the Protocol on the Resolution of the Abyei Conflict has been little
as the key decision on the ABC-report, submitted to the Presidency
on 14 July 2005, has yet to be taken. Parties differ on the
validity of the report which prevents further implementation of the
majority of provisions of the protocol."

7. (U) Regarding the other two areas, Southern Kordofan and Blue
Nile, the report notes "substantial progress." However, the two
states are struggling to cope with the fiscal and policy
decentralization mandated by the CPA.

--------------------------------------------- -----
Security: Ceasefire holds, but JIUs not integrated
--------------------------------------------- -----

8. (U) According to the AEC report, it is in the realm of Security
that the most progress has been achieved in CPA implementation. The
Security Working Group notes that aside from one serious incident in
November 2006, "ceasefire violations have been few and comparatively
minor - the peace has held." However, in the area of forming and
strengthening the institutions to maintain that peace and, in the
longer term, to foster national unity, much still remains to be

9. (U) Much progress has been made on redeployment of troops, but
the two parties disagree on the numbers remaining to be redeployed.
The SAF maintains that it redeployed over 90% of its non-Joint
Integrated Unit (JIU) forces by the CPA deadline of 09 July 2007,
and claims that most of the remaining forces are in the
oil-producing areas and cannot leave until the JIUs are able to take
over there.

10. (U) The JIUs themselves are impressive on paper, though the
reality is far less impressive. The report notes, "while
co-located, and with each JIU having a commander chosen on a
rotating basis between SAF and SPLA, in practice the two command
chains have generally remained separate, with separate
administration and, to date, limited professional interaction."
Some of the supposedly SAF forces in the JIUs are, in fact, other
armed groups (OAGs) that were associated with the SAF.


11. (SBU) Vraalsen obviously tried to strike a balance in his
report between highlighting the progress that has been made, while
encouraging more of it, and drawing attention to the challenges that
lie ahead. Vraalsen writes that three years remain in the interim
period in which the two parties must "make unity attractive" to the
voters of Southern Sudan if national unity is to be maintained after
2011. He notes that no "program for reconciliation and healing" has
been instituted - a shortcoming that neither party seems concerned
about. The AEC report does not refer to the current political
crisis between the SPLM and the NCP, but it is the outcome of that
crisis - particularly on the Abyei issue - in the upcoming weeks and
months that may determine the success or failure of the CPA. Even
complete success in that regard seems unlikely to change the minds
of many in the South on whether to vote for unity in 2011. After
decades of war, much mistrust remains.


© Scoop Media

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