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Cablegate: Contingency Planning for Ethiopia Pastoral Areas

VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDS #0867/01 0920838
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 010838Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0095
INFO RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 2424
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 8965
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3442
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 3129
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4218
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 3061
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 6418
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7315
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ2/CCJ5/CCJS//
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000867

SIPDIS

STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES,
A/S PRM SAUERBREY, AND PRM/AFR
AFR/AA KALMQUIST, LKELLEY, CTHOMPSON, BDUNFORD
DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB
DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, CCHAN, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP JBORNS, PMOHAN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA
ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA, HSPANOS
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA
USUN FOR TMALY
NSC FOR PMARCHAN

AIDAC
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM SENV EAGR PGOV ET
SUBJECT: CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ETHIOPIA PASTORAL AREAS

-------
SUMMARY
-------

1. THE FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK (FEWSNET) FROM MARCH
10TH THROUGH THE 18TH, CONDUCTED A CONTINGENCY PLANNING WORKSHOP
UTILIZING THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO PREDICT OUTCOMES
FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A POOR SHORT RAINY SEASON IN ETHIOPIA'S
MAIN PASTORAL AREAS. RESULTS FROM THE WORKSHOP INDICATE THAT,
UNLESS SIGNIFICANT AND WELL-DISTRIBUTED RAINS BEGIN IMMEDIATELY,
VULNERABLE PASTORALIST AND AGRO-PASTORALIST HOUSEHOLDS IN SOMALI,
OROMIYA, SNNPR, AND AFAR REGIONS WILL SOON FACE SIGNIFICANT SURVIVAL
AND LIVELIHOOD THRESHOLD GAPS. THIS INCLUDES THE CONFLICT AFFECTED
OGADEN AREAS.

2. THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA'S (FDRE) NATIONAL
METEROLOGY AGENCY (NMA) AND FEWSNET HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED EARLY
WARNING FOR THE PROBABILITY OF POOR SHORT (GU/GANNA/BELG) RAINS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE WHOLE OF EASTERN ETHIOPIA IN THE COMING
MONTHS (MARCH-MAY). FOR PARTS OF OROMIYA AND SOMALI REGIONS, THIS
WILL BE THE THIRD POOR SEASON IN SUCCESSION. POOR SHORT RAINS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST AND MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON PASTORALISTS IN AFAR,
SOMALI, OROMIYA AND SNNP REGIONS. THESE AREAS ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR
HIGH VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT. DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF VULNERABILITY,
LEAD TIMES BETWEEN RAIN FAILURE AND THE ONSET OF EMERGENCY
CONDITIONS CAN BE RELATIVELY SHORT. EFFECTIVE CONTINGENCY PLANNING
AND RAPID INTERVENTION ARE ESSENTIAL BOTH TO PRESERVE LIVELIHOODS
AND SAVE LIVES.

-----------------------------------
JOINT CONTINGENCY PLANNING EXERCISE
-----------------------------------

3. FEWSNET, WITH FUNDING SUPPORT FROM USAID, ORGANIZED A WORKSHOP
FROM THE MARCH 10 THROUGH 18TH THAT BROUGHT TOGETHER EXPERTS FROM
ALL FOUR REGIONS WITH PASTORALIST COMMUNITIES TO DEVELOP 2-3
SCENARIOS OF LIKELY NEEDS IN THE EVENT OF A SHORT RAIN FAILURE.
REPRESENTATIVES FROM GOVERNMENT, NON-GOVERNMENTAL, AND INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS INCLUDING SAVE THE CHILDREN UK, SAVE THE CHILDREN US,
CARE, FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO), WORLD FOOD PROGRAM
(WFP), OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
(OCHA), EUROPEAN COMMISSION (EC), THE FDRE DISASTER PREVENTION AND
PREPAREDNESS AGENCY (DPPA), REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVES FROM OROMIYA,
SNNPR, AFAR, AND SOMALI AND USAID PARTICIPATED IN THE WORKSHOP.
SCENARIOS INCLUDED THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF RAIN FAILURE,
PLUS THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED MARKET ACCESS IN PARTS OF SOMALI REGION.
THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO PROVIDE CRITICAL AND TIMELY INFORMATION THAT
CAN SERVE AS AN INPUT TO GOVERNMENT-LED CONTINGENCY PLANNING.

4. CONTINGENCY PLANNING SHOULD BE BASED UPON RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF
THE LIKELY SCALE OF NEED. DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF HEA
BASELINE PROFILES IN OROMIYA'S PASTORALIST LIVELIHOOD ZONE,
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY BASELINE DATA IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR ALL THE
AFFECTED AREAS. [BASELINE PROFILES FOR AFAR, SOMALI, AND SNNPR HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.] THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTED FOR THE FIRST TIME
TO DEVELOP SUCH ESTIMATES FOR ALL THE POTENTIALLY AFFECTED AREAS
USING A COMMON LIVELIHOODS-BASED ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY - THE HEA.
THIS IS NOW THE OFFICIALLY ACCEPTED METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EMERGENCY
NEEDS IN ETHIOPIA.

5. HEA IS A UNIQUE LIVELIHOODS-BASED FRAMEWORK DESIGNED TO PROVIDE
A CLEAR AND ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIES. THIS PICTURE CAN BE USED FOR A WIDE RANGE OF
PURPOSES, INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, EARLY
WARNING, POVERTY ANALYSIS AND REDUCTION, AND POLICY ANALYSIS.

--------------------------------------------- --
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO CONTINGENCY PLANNING
--------------------------------------------- --

6. FEWSNET DEVELOPED TWO MAIN SCENARIOS, ONE FOR 'BAD' RAINS OR
50-60 PER CENT OF NORMAL, AND ONE FOR 'VERY BAD' RAINS OR 20-30 PER
CENT OF NORMAL. BOTH SCENARIOS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE
IMPACT OF REDUCTIONS TO MARKET ACCESS FOR INSECURE AREAS IN THE
SOMALI REGION. BASIC PARAMETERS FOR EACH SCENARIO WERE DEVELOPED BY
LIVESTOCK EXPERTS ALONG WITH HEA PRACTIONERS AND INCLUDED INPUTS
SUCH AS THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF MILK OUTPUT, LIVESTOCK MORTALITY, AND
LIVESTOCK PRICES. THE ANALYSIS ALSO CONSIDERED THE DIFFERENT TYPES
OF COPING STRATEGIES THAT MAY BE EMPLOYED LIKE INCREASED LIVESTOCK
SALES AND/OR SLAUGHTERED AND INCREASES IN CHARCOAL COLLECTION.

7. HEA ANALYSIS USES A DUAL PROTECTION THRESHOLD MODEL TO EXPRESS
VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS AND TO GUIDE RESPONSE. THE LIVELIHOODS
PROTECTION THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH AN INTERVENTION IS
REQUIRED IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN EXISTING LIVELIHOOD ASSETS AND
STRATEGIES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL INCOME REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN LOCAL
LIVELIHOODS. THE SURVIVAL THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH
INTERVENTION IS REQUIRED TO SAVE LIVES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL
INCOME REQUIRED TO COVER: A) 100% OF MINIMUM FOOD ENERGY NEEDS (2100
KCALS PER PERSON), PLUS B) THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FOOD
PREPARATION AND CONSUMPTION (I.E. SALT, SOAP, KEROSENE AND/OR
FIREWOOD FOR COOKING AND BASIC LIGHTING), PLUS C) ANY EXPENDITURE ON
WATER FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION. THE THRESHOLDS PROVIDE A LIVELIHOODS
GROUNDED AND EVIDENCE-BASED REFERENCE POINT AGAINST WHICH TO JUDGE
THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF DIFFERENT EVENTS OR POLICY SHIFTS, AND TO PLAN
ACCORDINGLY. THEY SHOW JUST HOW MUCH OF A GAP WILL BE LEFT, AND IN
THIS WAY PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REQUIRED RESPONSE.


--------------
RESULTS OF HEA
--------------

8. RESULTS FROM BOTH THE "BAD" AND "VERY BAD" RAIN SCENARIOS
INDICATE THAT AN EXTREMELY WORRYING SITUATION MAY BE DEVELOPING IN
THE ETHIOPIA'S PASTORALIST AND AGROPASTORALIST AREAS. POOR AND VERY
POOR HOUSEHOLDS, WHO MAKE UP MORE THAN 40 PER CENT OF THE POPULATION
IN THE AREA CONSIDERED, FACE SERIOUS THREATS NOT ONLY TO THEIR
LIVELIHOODS BUT TO THE ABILITY TO SURVIVE WITHOUT USING NEGATIVE AND
RESOURCE DEPLETING COPING STRATEGIES.

-----------------------------------
PREPARING FOR AN APPEAL IN ETHIOPIA
-----------------------------------

9. THE PROCESS USED IN ETHIOPIA FOR CONTINGENCY PLANNING HAS
TRADITIONALLY INVOLVED THE COMPARISON OF PAST EXAMPLES OF NORMAL,
POOR, AND VERY POOR YEARS (AND THE BENEFICIARY NUMBERS FROM THOSE
YEARS) TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEST, MID, AND WORST CASE
SCENARIOS. THE HEA SCENARIOS SHOULD PROVIDE EVIDENCE BASED ESTIMATES
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SCENARIOS.
10. DPPA'S POLICY, PROGRAMS, AND PLANS DEPARTMENT (PPPD) IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING AND COORDINATING CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR
THE FDRE. WHILE THE PPPD DETERMINES POTENTIAL FOOD NEEDS, THE
REMAINING SECTOR PLANS (WATER AND SANITATION, HEALTH, AGRICULTURE)
ARE CONSTRUCTED BY THE APPROPRIATE LINE MINISTRY. THE PPPD THEN
INTEGRATES ALL OF THE SECTOR SPECIFIC PLANS INTO A COMPREHENSIVE
DOCUMENT. THE FDRE MULTI-DONOR PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROGRAM
(PSNP)PROVIDES SIX MONTHS OF FOOD OR CASH TRANSFERS FOR ABOUT EIGHT
MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SIX REGIONS OF ETHIOPIA.
THE PSNP HAS BUILT INTO ITS DESIGN A 20% CONTINGENCY THAT CAN COVER
MILD TO MODERATE SHOCKS ABOVE THE CHRONIC FOOD INSECURITY NEEDS IN
PSNP WOREDAS.

11. THE DPPA PLANS TO LAUNCH AN APPEAL DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 31.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE APPEAL WILL INCLUDE RESULTS OF HEA SCENARIO
EXERCISES. THE APPEAL IS BASED ON CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND CONSIDERS
THAT PSNP PLAYS A ROLE IN THE RESPONSE.

YAMAMATO

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