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Cablegate: Unmis Ddr Program to Request Funding at Sudan Consortium In

VZCZCXRO4460
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0517/01 0970757
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060757Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0440
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000517

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: UNMIS DDR PROGRAM TO REQUEST FUNDING AT SUDAN CONSORTIUM IN
PARIS

REF: KHARTOUM 506

1. (SBU) At a meeting of the AEC Security working group April 2
UNMIS DDR Chief Adrian Verheul described plans for an April 9
high-level roundtable meeting in Khartoum of UN officials, donors
and GOS officials to develop comprehensive DDR program. Verheul
plans to follow this up with a request for DDR funding at the Sudan
Consortium in Partis. He said the program would impact 50,000
Northern and Southern soldiers over a two year period. Ultimately,
DDR would disarm and reintegrate an estimated 182,000 soldiers in
both the North and the South at an estimated cost of $700 million
over several years.

2. (SBU) Verheul assessed that DDR programming to date has had only
limited success. He said that disarmament of soldiers can be
counted in the dozens; there has been limited demobilization of
soldiers in both the North and the South, and reintegration programs
have only just begun. However, in November the DDR program achieved
a major breakthrough when the Presidency adopted a National DDR
Strategy which provided the legal basis to move forward with a
program. Furthermore, the Presidency is expected to announce a
National Reintegration Policy (NRP) and propose a budget for
submission to the Sudan Consortium in Paris in early May. Verheul
said the program is a sign of Sudanese commitment and provides the
legal and policy framework for future DDR programs.

3. (SBU) Verheul, who arrived in February 2008, criticized existing
DDR programs saying that policy and politics drove current DDR
program planning and that these programs represent a systematic
program. Verheul noted that disarmament programs are often driven
by political forces, which are prone to abrupt starts and stops,
while reintegration programs are essentially development programs
which must be well regulated and managed over a defined period of
time. Proper planning and timing are essential in developing an
effective DDR program, Verheul said. Funds must be available to
conduct all phases of the program. Verheul cautioned against
starting a demobilization program without a fully planned and funded
reintegration program. Any delays in programming would only invite
former combatants to rearm themselves and turn to petty crime, as
forces did in Eastern Sudan and other parts of the world.

4. (SBU) Verheul explained that initial program success is critical
to the success of the entire program. If soldiers can be properly
disarmed and given skills to replace their weapons, this would give
confidence to future ex-combatants, to both Northern and Southern
governments, and to the international community that the DDR program
can achieve results. Verheul outlined a plan to transition 50,000
veterans in the first year of the program by targeting veterans who
currently play no combat role and have no military significance.
The choice of veterans who play no combat role is deliberate in
order to permit both sides to observe the success of the DDR program
before committing to demobilize their front-line soldiers.

5. (SBU) Verheul said that currently-identified funding is
inadequate. Based on current estimates of 182,000 DDR program
candidates in both the North and the South, at a programming cost of
$3,000 per person for two years, the requirement would reach up to
$600 to $700 million dollars over two years. Verhel acknowledged
that donors would be skeptical since none of the currently budgeted
$49 million has been spent, but explained that a policy framework
was not in place previously.

6. (SBU) Asked if this proposed DDR program could also be used for
LRA troops, Verheul said yes, but it would be a logistical nightmare
to set up. He said that programs would be established in Sudan and
along the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
However, as the families of the combatants are normally part of any
DDR program, if there is snag in the schedule the LRA families will
need to be cared for on an extended basis. This will be a drain on
UNMIS resources.

7. (SBU) Verheul noted the many potential obstacles. He said that
while a program can be expressed in the simple arithmetic of
collecting arms, the real challenge is to "disarm the mind of the
combatants first." He said there are deep cultural roots of
resolving disputes through violence in this society, and there are
real security concerns of being unarmed in a society where guns have
been a factor for a long time. "It would be very dangerous to give
away your weapon if your neighbor still has his." Verheul noted the
scale of the problem in Sudan: there are an estimated two to three
million arms in both North and South. He recognized that only 30
percent of these arms are in the hands of the governments, with the
remaining arms controlled by unofficial militias.

8. (SBU) Verheul said that in preparation for the April 9 meeting in

KHARTOUM 00000517 002 OF 002


Sudan, and for the early May Sudan Consortium meeting in Paris, he
plans to travel to the UN in New York for high-level discussions
with potential donors to present his DDR proposal. He will make a
case for a $20 million reintegration communications campaign program
to kick-start the first phase of the DDR program. At the April 9
roundtable hosted by UNMIS, Verheul said that prospective donors and
Sudanese representatives will discuss DDR programs in light of the
recent GOS policy framework.

9. (SBU) Comment: Verheul's comprehensive DDR program proposal was
well received at the informal AEC meeting. There is broad consensus
that an effective DDR program is required; the question is how to
get the program started and funded given political-military
realities in Sudan. The program should be especially well received
in the South, where the SPLA is trying to demobilize veterans.
Verheul said he will note the endorsement of the AEC when he
presents his plan in Paris.

FERNANDEZ

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