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Cablegate: Nairobi Process - Moving Forward After Kisangani

VZCZCXRO9933
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0488 1551218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031218Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8071
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000488

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO CG RW
SUBJECT: NAIROBI PROCESS - MOVING FORWARD AFTER KISANGANI

REF: KINSHASA 463

1. (SBU) Summary: May 27-28 technical committee meetings following
the Kisangani FDLR Conference reached agreement on the process
through which the FDLR-RUD and RPR will disarm and begin
repatriation to Rwanda or resettlement in the DRC. MONUC is
guardedly optimistic regarding prospects for successful
demobilization, based in large part on the level of commitment
demonstrated by the GDRC. FDLR/FOC representatives were not in
Kisangani, although individuals claiming to represent that group
were present. End Summary.

2. (SBU) The Congolese government and FDLR factions RUD (Ralliement
pour l'Unite et la Democratie) and RPR (Rassemblement du Peuple
Rwandais) agreed May 28 on modalities for disarmament and
processing of FDLR-RUD and RPR combatants and dependents prior to
repatriation to Rwanda or relocation in the DRC. The May 27-28
meeting followed the May 26 conference of FDLR factions sponsored by
the Congolese government that produced a "Roadmap for the
disarmament of the Rwandan armed groups in the Democratic Republic
of Congo" (reftel).

3. (SBU) Congolese government representatives and political and
military leadership of FDLR-RUD and RPR worked with a technical
committee including MONUC, the EU, South Africa, the ECC (the
religious denomination "Eglise du Christ au Congo"), UNOCHA, World
Bank MDRP, and UNHCR to produce the agreement. It establishes two
assembly points for combatants and dependents located near areas
where FDLR-RUD and RPR are active. It calls for the GDRC to
identity possible relocation areas within the DRC by June 2 and the
reporting of RUD and RPR combatants to the assembly points by June
4.

4. (SBU) MONUC DDRRR Political Advisor Guillaume Lacaille, who
participated in the meetings, assessed the overall prospects for
compliance as strong. He told us June 2 that GDRC identification of
relocation sites is essential to maintain FDLR confidence in the
roadmap. He was less confident that the June 2 and June 4 timelines
would be met. He predicted the first combatant arrivals at the
assembly points would not occur until June 11, and that combatants
would remain in transit camps for at least two months. He said that
MONUC has funds to support the transit camps for two weeks, after
which contributions will be solicited from donors.

5. (SBU) Lacaille said he doubted the GDRC would produce
information on relocation sites within Congo in the immediate
future. He cautioned that FDLR-RUD and RPR leadership could lose
faith in the agreement if the GDRC delayed excessively. RUD
military commander Musare reportedly remains on the fence. Lacaille
noted the two-month stay in the transit camps presented MONUC an
opportunity to work to separate the leadership from the rank and
file and present repatriation options to combatants and dependents.


6. (SBU) Lacaille confirmed that 10 Congolese showed up at the
Kisangani meeting claiming to represent the hardline FDLR/FOCA
faction. He said they were quickly identified as imposters based on
their lack of Kinyarwanda language skills and nervous behavior.

7. (SBU) Comment: The production of a timetable and action plan in
the wake of the Kisangani conference is a positive step, but
progress will also depend on the availability of financial resources
to process and relocate or repatriate combatants and their
dependent. Successes in demobilizing RUD combatants would
demonstrate progress in the Nairobi process and isolate FDLR
hardliners, adding impetus to the Goma process as well. End
Comment.

BROCK

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