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Cablegate: Lack of Peace Dividends in Southern Kordofan Leaves The

VZCZCXRO8343
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1435/01 2661416
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221416Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1954
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001435

DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: LACK OF PEACE DIVIDENDS IN SOUTHERN KORDOFAN LEAVES THE
NUBA FRUSTRATED AND DESPERATE

REFS: (A) KHARTOUM 1427
(B) KHARTOUM 1309
(C) KHARTOUM 629

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SUMMARY
--------
1. (SBU) During a meeting with poloff in Kadugli on 14 September,
Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan Daniel Kodi (SPLM) expressed
frustration with what he perceived as a lack of peace dividends
from the CPA and the neglect of Nuban interests by the GoSS and the
GNU. Kodi explained the challenges of integration, the lack of a
functioning Joint Integrated Unit for Southern Kordofan, alleged NCP
arming of Arab groups in the state, and the pressing need for the
SPLM to win a majority in the state assembly during upcoming
legislative elections in order to exercise the right of popular
consultation. He urged the USG to urge others to pay attention to
concerns of the Nuba and help the people of Southern Kordofan. End
summary.

------------------------------------------
KODI: INTEGRATION IS JUST NOT WORKING OUT
-------------------------------------------
2. (SBU) In a meeting with poloff in Kadugli, Southern Kordofan on
14 September, Deputy Governor Daniel Kodi (SPLM) criticized the
progress of police and civil service integration in the state.
Integration of the former SPLA-controlled areas into the state and
federal administration, now three years delayed, began with
integration of the SPLA police into the federal police force in
August (reftels A and B). Kodi's biggest complaint is that what is
occurring is "absorption," not "integration." In 2007, 2,400 civil
service vacancies were identified, according to Kodi. Currently,
the state government is accepting applications for the vacancies
from those in the formerly SPLA-controlled areas. Kodi indicated
that it will be very difficult for many in the SPLA areas to attain
positions in the Southern Kordofan civil service because the civil
service law requires personnel to have certain qualifications and
years of experience before being hired. Because the SPLA-controlled
areas in Southern Kordofan have been closed off to the rest of the
state for over 20 years, people in those areas are unlikely to meet
the necessary qualifications for integration into the civil service.
Furthermore, Kodi explained, language is a problem. The official
language of the government is Arabic, yet many in the SPLA areas do
not speak Arabic. "One of the tragedies we will face," said Kodi,
"is that a part of us may not have the chance to be integrated."
This is very serious, he added, and "we (the SPLM) are trying to
make the NCP understand that they must be flexible on integration,
particularly when it comes to the civil service.

--------------------------------------------
NCP-GENERATED CONFLICT IN SOUTHERN KORDOFAN
--------------------------------------------
3. (SBU) The biggest obstacle to peace in Southern Kordofan, said
Kodi, is the NCP. Tribes have good relationships with one another
in Southern Kordofan, but the NCP uses race and religion to "divide
the people," claimed Kodi. "If you could see the number of guns in
the hands of the people, particularly Arab tribes such as the
Misseriya and the Riezegat," said Kodi, you would be astonished.
"The NCP is militarily supporting groups for their own political
gains," said Kodi.

4. (SBU) When poloff questioned Kodi on the status of the Southern
Kordofan Joint Integrated Unit (JIU), he reported that it is neither
joint, nor integrated. Two years ago, 3000 SAF and 3000 SPLA troops
were identified to form the JIU. Up until now, the troops do not
train together, patrol together, or live together. The SAF and SPLA
troops report to different commanders and are under different
administrations.

--------------------------------------------- ---
THE CENSUS DEBACLE AND A LOOK TOWARDS ELECTIONS
--------------------------------------------- ---
5. (SBU) Poloff asked Kodi about the conduct of the April-May
national census in Southern Kordofan. Kodi himself had called for
an SPLM boycott of the census in the state at the time, which led to
a significant undercount in the Nuba Mountains region (ref C). "I
made it clear that people should not participate in the census,"
said Kodi, because of a number of unresolved issues that plague
Southern Kordofan. He believes that census coverage of the state
was no more than 28 percent, although the Central Bureau of
Statistics in Khartoum claims that at least 95 percent of all areas
in the North were covered. "If I had allowed the census in Southern
Kordofan to take place," said Kodi, "I would have betrayed my
people." He explained his reasons for boycott as: the lack of

KHARTOUM 00001435 002 OF 003


border demarcation, the inability of Nuban IDPs to return to
Southern Kordofan, the lack of integration in Southern Kordofan
state, and general insecurity in the area caused by armed groups and
landmines. Kodi insisted that although Nuban IDPs wanted to return
to the area to participate in the census, the NCP blocked their
return. "The NCP wanted census results to show that the Arab
population in Southern Kordofan is higher than the African
population," claimed Kodi. It is a racial issue for the NCP, said
Kodi, and the NCP wants to portray the Nuba Mountains as more Arab
than African so that it can command the area's rich resources.

6. (SBU) On elections, Kodi stated that the NCP is more willing to
go to elections than is the SPLM. "For us in Southern Kordofan,"
said Kodi, "it is a matter of losing everything if the SPLM doesn't
win the majority in the state legislature." All of our sacrifices
will have been in vain if the SPLM loses in Southern Kordofan. "The
NCP hopes to keep the current power-sharing status quo," he said,
which means that if the NCP wins the elections in Southern Kordofan,
it will call the shots on the popular consultation. If the NCP
holds a majority of power during the popular consultation, it will
not vote to amend the rights of the Nuba people under the CPA.
"There is potential danger for this state if the SPLM does not make
the necessary arrangements to win the elections."

7. (SBU) Kodi stressed that students and tribal chiefs are the best
conduits for civic and voter education in Southern Kordofan because
of their access to the communities and ability to speak Nuban
languages. "We have a serious problem with illiteracy in Southern
Kordofan" and many will not understand why it is important to vote.
Since elections have never brought us anything good in the past,
said Kodi, many will wonder why this time is any different.

-------------------------------
WHAT 2 PERCENT OF OIL REVENUE?
-------------------------------
8. (SBU) Poloff asked D/G Kodi if the Government of Southern
Kordofan is receiving its allotted 2 percent of oil revenue from the
state, as promised to the state in the CPA. "Have you seen the 2
percent? If so, then let me know where it is," said Kodi, laughing.
This money has never appeared in the state budget, he added. "The
only peace dividend that our people have enjoyed is the absence of
war." Other than that, there has been no change in the lives of the
Nuban people.

9. (SBU) Kodi pleaded that all aid given to Southern Kordofan by
international partners be directed to civil society organizations
and not the government. The Sudanese system of finance is "not
capable of managing money," claimed Kodi. Currently, not enough
money is going to the war-affected areas of our state.

10. (SBU) Kodi mentioned that he had recently met with GoSS
President Salva Kiir Mayardit to describe the "neglect" of Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile state by the GoSS and the SPLM. Kodi
explained to Kiir that Southern Kordofan is not accruing any
benefits from the CPA, and that as a result, people are becoming
restless. "We fought together," said Kodi, "yet there is a
negligence of the needs of the Nuban people by the GoSS." The SPLM
has promised to provide capacity-building for some of our people,
yet they have not delivered on their promise. Kodi explained that
he and Kiir agreed to the appointment of a senior representative to
the GoSS who would represent the interests of Southern Kordofan and
Blue Nile. Currently, no Nuban representative is a member of the
GoSS (not surprising since the area is not in South Sudan). Kodi
ended by asking poloff to deliver an important message to the
American people - "We believe that the US is powerful and has great
influence. We appeal to the US to influence others (in Sudan and in
the international community) to help the people of Southern
Kordofan."

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COMMENT
--------
11. (SBU) Kodi, just back from extensive medical leave in the UK
partly as a result of alcoholism, is quick to describe doomsday
scenarios for the future of Southern Kordofan. While he acted as
the spoiler for the census in Southern Kordofan, and is pessimistic
about the newly-started integration process, Kodi's views represent
an important sentiment in the Nuba Mountains: that the Nuba just
aren't getting what they deserve out of the CPA. Manipulation of
Arab tribes against the Nuba by the NCP and neglect of Nuban
concerns by the GoSS is leading the Nubans down a path of
desperation. Not only has integration come three years too late,
but also the state government is not receiving the oil revenue it
has been promised, nor seeing the fruits of development. If

KHARTOUM 00001435 003 OF 003


elections occur in Sudan in 2009-2010 and the SPLM does not control
the state's popular consultation process, which is vaguely stated in
the CPA as the State Assembly's responsibility to consult the people
on CPA implementation in the state and to endorse any
"rectification" of procedures in the CPA, then the pro-SPLM Nuba
have no shot at redressing their concerns. What the Nubans fear
most is that they will be left hanging in the balance if the South
decides to secede from Sudan and the Nubans only option is
integration with what they regard as a brutal NCP north that has
mercilessly subjugated the Nubans in the past. If the Nubans feel
like their fate is moving quickly and definitively in this
direction, and they are not being given consideration by their
southern comrades, the Nubans could take violent measures to make
their voices heard, especially if provoked by Arab militias. Kodi's
statement that the SPLM in the Nuba Mountains must make "the
necessary arrangements to win the elections in Southern Kordofan" is
frightening. There is no doubt that close attention should be paid
the Nuba Mountains on all areas of CPA implementation, and the
elections in particular. One of the problems is local leaders like
Kodi who have not provided the leadership the SPLM needs in the
region. End Comment.

FERNANDEZ

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