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Cablegate: Misseriya Continue Search for Peace Benefits

VZCZCXRO3622
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1460/01 2730726
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290726Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1997
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001460

DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, PRM
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SP, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
NAIROBI FOR SFO

NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND BPITTMAN
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO
BRUSSELS FOR JADDLETON
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI SU
SUBJECT: MISSERIYA CONTINUE SEARCH FOR PEACE BENEFITS

REFS: A) KHARTOUM 1455
B) KHARTOUM 1435
C) KHARTOUM 1427
D) KHARTOUM 1309

KHARTOUM 00001460 001.2 OF 002


-------
SUMMARY
-------

1. (SBU) A growing influx of arms into Misseriya areas of Southern
Kordofan State and continued feelings of disenfranchisement among
Misseriya over perceived losses in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement
(CPA) have contributed to increased tensions in this tense region.
There is a crucial need to show Misseriya ethnic group members that
their interests are served by continued peace in Sudan under current
arrangements, and that the Misseriya have the political means to
arrive at an acceptable final solution. Destabilization in
Misseriya areas risks increasing conflicts between Misseriya and
neighboring ethnic groups, including the Ngok Dinka, Nuba, Rizeigat,
Mwal Dinka, and Nuer, potentially derailing the Abyei road map
agreement and the CPA. Misseriya officials are seeking political
solutions to Misseriya issues, which should be encouraged and
supported when possible. END SUMMARY.

--------------------------
INCREASED MISSERIYA ARMING
--------------------------

2. (SBU) Two disturbing recent reports from Misseriya contacts
indicate an urgent need to address issues related to state
integration in the western sector of Southern Kordofan. First, Abel
Gassim Gour - a Misseriya intellectual, professor in the University
of Khartoum peace studies department, and activist in Misseriya
peace initiatives - reports that large quantities of arms are
flowing into Misseriya areas of western Southern Kordofan state.
Abel Gour flagged this trend as evidence of growing frustration
among the Misseriya, many of whom perceive a lack of benefits from
the CPA.

------------------------------------
FRUSTRATED MISSERIYA PLAN FOR ACTION
------------------------------------

3. (SBU) Additionally Ahmed Gour (no relation to Abel Gour), the
nephew of Mohamed Gour, a Misseriya Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM) national parliamentarian and influential Misseriya
leader, recently confided to USAID implementing partner staff that
frustrations among the Misseriya regarding perceived lack of
benefits from the CPA have reached a point requiring action.
According to Ahmed Gour, the Misseriya have not received significant
benefits from the development fund from Khartoum or the Kadugli
government. Ahmed Gour sees the recent progress on integrating
former SPLM areas of the state (reftel), with no integration of the
western sector, as supporting the Nuba ethnic group while neglecting
the Misseriya. Ahmed Gour asserted that neither the SPLM nor
National Congress Party (NCP) is looking out for Misseriya
interests and that the Misseriya had no input in the Abyei road map
agreement, which Ahmed Gour claimed ignores Misseriya interests and
concerns. Ahmed Gour is planning to meet the Deputy Governor of
Southern Kordofan to ask if the Kadugli government can take steps to
integrate the area and provide development assistance. If not, the
Misseriya may take matters into their own hands. According to Ahmed
Gour, the Misseriya have planned their next steps and could
effectively block oil production and separate the western sector
from the rest of the state by force. Ahmed Gour stated that the
Misseriya would have no problems getting arms for this end.

-----------------------------------------
MISSERIYA DISSATISFACTION PRIORITY ISSUE
-----------------------------------------

4. (SBU) Neroun Phillip, the Nuba SPLM co-chair of the Presidential
Assessment and Evaluation Committee (PAEC), also recently traveled
around Southern Kordofan. He told USAID staff that the Misseriya
are more frustrated than are the Nuba at what the former see as a
lack of progress on CPA implementation. Phillip said that for this
reason issues in the western sector are a more serious threat than
those in the Nuba Mountains.

KHARTOUM 00001460 002.2 OF 002

5. (SBU) USAID staff and other donors recently met with Omar Suliman
Adam, the Misseriya Governor of Southern Kordofan State. Adam
expressed appreciation for USAID-supported Misseriya-Dinka and
Misseriya-Misseriya dialogues planned for the coming months. Adam
would like to use these forums to discuss the way forward in
addressing Misseriya concerns, particularly respecting integration.
To date, no other donors are addressing issues in the western sector
such as integration. On September 19, Mokhtar Babu Nimir, the Amir
of the Misseriya Ajaira, called for a meeting of the Misseriya
native administration to announce the participants of the
USAID-supported Misseriya-Misseriya forum scheduled for mid-October
in Muglad.

---------------------------
MISSERIYA-MISSERIYA MEETING
---------------------------

6. (SBU) The Misseriya-Misseriya meeting will attempt to develop a
common position and response among the Misseriya on the Abyei road
map agreement, voluntary disarmament, and outstanding issues with
the CPA. Participants will include traditional leaders, civil
society, women leaders, and government officials. The Misseriya head
of the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Commission
(DDRC) for Southern Kordofan State and the Southern Kordofan State
Governor will attend the sessions to ensure government
follow-through on meeting resolutions. A follow-on meeting is
planned between Misseriya and Ngok Dinka to discuss common positions
among the ethnic groups on these issues and agree on requirements
for Misseriya migration through Ngok Dinka areas during the upcoming
dry season beginning in November. Disarmament of Misseriya herdsmen
migrating through Ngok Dinka areas will be a key requirement for
Misseriya access to these areas.

-------
COMMENT
-------

7. (SBU) The Misseriya are key to peace in the Southern Kordofan
region. Given NCP manipulation, they can play the dangerous role of
spoiler to the CPA, as they have done on several occasions in Abyei.
Increased arming of the Misseriya and continued dissatisfaction felt
by a tribe that regards itself as having been manipulated and
marginalized could threaten the successful implementation of the CPA
and the Abyei road map agreement. Since the signing of the CPA,
Misseriya have increasingly abandoned their previous support for the
Umma Party, in search of benefits from both the NCP and SPLM. After
fighting against the SPLA along migration routes in the fall of 2007
and staunch SPLM support for the Ngok Dinka in the Abyei Road Map
discussions, the Misseriya do not feel that supporting the SPLM will
fully serve their interests. Although some Misseriya lean toward
supporting the NCP as a last, best option, many note that the NCP
did not look out for the interests of the Misseriya in the CPA or
Abyei road map negotiations.

8. (SBU) Finding an acceptable solution to issues of Misseriya
integration, including government-led development in the western
sector, is an important component in achieving sustainable peace in
Abyei and Southern Kordofan. As we have reported previously, the
NCP seeks to provoke continued conflict between the Misseriya and
their neighbors, notably the Dinka and Nuba, in its strategy of
"divide and rule." The popular consultation is one political
mechanism through which the Misseriya could press for the
reconstitution of the former West Kordofan State if successful
integration into Southern Kordofan cannot be achieved, and also
refocus their aspirations away from Abyei. SPLM support either for
effective integration or reviving an ethnic-Misseriya state could
engender the trust and support of the Misseriya. CDA Fernandez has
held several roundtables with the Misseriya and invited many of
their leaders to the Embassy's Ramadan Iftar on September 17, but
this key tribe needs constant attention and resources. Through its
partners, USAID will continue to support discussions around these
issues to facilitate the determination of potential solutions. Post
will continue to advocate for peaceful Misseriya interests with the
regime, such as a separate West Kordofan State and regional
reconciliation and integration efforts.

FERNANDEZ

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