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Cablegate: Somalia: Igad Summit Issues Timeline in Effort To

VZCZCXRO9210
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2520/01 3041514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301514Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7486
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002520

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: IGAD SUMMIT ISSUES TIMELINE IN EFFORT TO
ENERGIZE TFG

REF: NAIROBI 2469

1. (SBU) Summary: Like day one (reftel), the October 29
closing session of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit on Somalia
featured protracted, closed-door negotiations, and pointed
criticism of the Somalia Transitional Federal Government
(TFG). The Summit communique (para 9), established a timeline
for the TFG, and an IGAD representative to monitor its
implementation in an effort to energize the process as the
TFG's mandate winds down. Although the speeches and the
communique were a pointed rebuke to the TFG, TFG President
Abdullahi Yusuf survived Ethiopian and TFG parliamentarian
unhappiness (see septel on A/S Frazer's post-Summit
conversation with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles). Although
it was hoped that the event would further the Djibouti
Process, some passages in the communique suggest that IGAD
was endeavoring to establish itself as a rival to the UN's
Special Representative for Somalia (SRSG). End summary.

2. (SBU) Continued, closed-door discussions with TFG
President Yusuf and the hammering out of a communique delayed
planned speeches by President Kibaki, Prime Minister Meles,
IGAD, AU, UN, and other representatives by more than two
hours on the last day of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit,
October 29. When the leaders finally convened, their speeches
were openly critical of the TFG. In his opening remarks,
Kenyan President Kibaki noted that the TFG "faces serious
challenges," and urged it to "end the deadlock; compromise;
work together."

3. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles was much blunter.
The TFG was "paralyzed," he said, and a "failure in all
areas." There was a "lack of harmony" among its leaders. In
remarks at an IGAD dinner on October 28, Meles had termed the
October 28 - 29 Summit a "last-ditch effort to reverse a
rapidly deteriorating situation." Meles termed the October
26 Djibouti declaration of an intent to establish a unity
government and cessation of hostilities agreement, however, a
"major achievement," but cautioned that "much would depend on
the TFI's readiness to grab the bull by the horns."

4. (SBU) Kibaki's and Meles's open expressions of
dissatisfaction were seconded by many of the transitional
parliamentarians present. Parliamentarians used their October
28 session to vent their unhappiness with the government,
particularly President Abdullahi Yusuf. Speaker Sheikh Aden
Mohamed Nur "Madobe" continued to be unrelenting on the
subject of Yusuf in his meetings with IGAD representatives.
The discussions with parliament became so heated, observers
told us, that IGAD members decided to issue the final
communique before lunch on the final day, in order to avoid a
second, unpleasant session with the members of parliament,
which was to have taken place in the afternoon.

5. (SBU) Those present at the session told us that President
Yusuf was defiant in the face of Ethiopian pressure and the
parliamentarians' dissatisfaction. Yusuf reportedly
maintained that the October 26 declaration of a government of
national unity nd cessation of hostilities agreement were of
no consequence. He asked for support in establishing a
well-equipped and armed militia to contain the growing
instability in Somalia, and he insisted that the TFG's
mandate should be extended, now, for another three years.
Yusuf appeared to have boycotted the October 28 IGAD state
dinner and he did not speak at the October 29 heads of state
session. Prime Minister "Nur Adde," according to all
accounts, played almost no role in the IGAD event, although
he was present. Many speculated that he may have tired of
the job, and was hoping to be replaced.

6. (SBU) The final communique (para 9), is evidence of
IGAD's, and particularly Ethiopia's, frustration with the
TFG. It takes note of the "profound paralysis" in Somalia
and the "near hopelessness" there and "complete failure to
establish institutions of governance only nine months before
the end of the transitional period." In a slap at President
Yusuf, it regrets the "lack of unity and unhelpful
competition" among the leadership, which it terms the
"principal factor that has allowed the deterioration of the
security situation." Yusuf did sign the communique and some
have noted that his signature indicates agreement with this
sentiment.

7. (SBU) Finally, the communique charts an ambitious timeline
in seven areas for the TFG. Among them: a new cabinet must
be appointed by November 14, progress reports must be

NAIROBI 00002520 002 OF 004


submitted every two months to the IGAD Council of Ministers,
the IGAD Assembly will meet every six months to review
progress, and a facilitator will monitor the TFG's progress
in such areas as establishing a Benadir Administration and
drafting a constitution. Most tellingly, paragraph sixteen
names IGAD as the "anchor of all efforts in relation to
Somalia."

Comment
-------

8. (SBU) The communique registers Ethiopia's frustration with
its neighbor, and it attempts to assign homework to its
delinquent government, but it is unlikely that the additional
pressure will improve the performance of the TFG. Continued
serious personal differences among the leadership will not
disappear, in spite of the blunt criticism leveled by IGAD
members, and Yusuf's survival as President will only
encourage him to remain uncooperative as the TFG enters its
final ten months. In the meantime, it is unclear at this
juncture how the UN's Special Representative Ould-Abdallah
will function against the background of renewed assertiveness
by IGAD.

Communique Text
---------------

9. (U) Begin communique text:

(Heading)
IGAD
Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Declaration of the 13th Extra-Ordinary Session of the IGAD
Assembly of Heads of State and Government

Nairobi, Kenya, October 29th, 2008

The IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government held an
Extraordinary Meeting in Nairobi on 29th October 2008 under
the Chairmanship of H.E Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman
of IGAD to consider the political, security and humanitarian
situation in Somalia. The Assembly was attended by H.E.
Ismael Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti,
H.E. Mwai Kibaki. President of the Republic of Kenya, H.E.
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda,
H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) of Somalia, H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1st
Vice President of the Republic of Sudan.

Honorable Germain Niyoyankana, Minister of National Defense
and Former Combatants, Republic of Burundi participated at
the Meeting in Burundi's capacity as troop contributing
country to AMISOM. The Assembly was preceded by the 29th
Extraordinary Meeting of the IGAD Council of Ministers, held
in Nairobi on 28th October 2008. The Assembly was briefed by
H.E. Erastus Mwencha, Deputy Chairperson of the African Union
Commission, H.E Ahmedou Ould Abdellah, Special Representative
of the UN Secretary General to Somalia, and Senator Mario
Rafaelli, Italian Government Special Envoy for Somalia,
representing the Chair of IGAD Partners Forum (IPF).

The Assembly also held intensive consultations with the
Leadership of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs)
and Members of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) of
Somalia.

After deliberating at length on the prevailing political and
security situation in Somalia, the Assembly adopted and
issuedthe following Declaration.

We the Members of the IGAD Assembly,

1. Take note of the statements made by the representative of
the African Union, the United Nations, and the IPF.

2. Take note also of the remarks and submissions made by the
Leaderships of the TFIs and Members of the TFP of Somalia.

3. Express profound concern regarding the political paralysis
in Somalia contributing to the continuing deterioration of
the security situation in the country as well as to the near
hopelessness of the existing situation with respect to
achieving the objectives of the transition period as
evidenced in the complete failure to establish institutions

NAIROBI 00002520 003 OF 004


of governance only nine months before the end of the
transitional period.

4. Regret the lack of unity and unhelpful competition among
the leadership of the TFIs as their working at cross purposes
has been the principal factor that has allowed the
deterioration of the security situation in the country, and
led to lack of progress in the national reconciliation effort.

5. Call upon the international community to support the
strengthening of the TFIs through capacity building and
provision of technical assistance.

6. Call further on the international community to provide the
urgently needed humanitarian assistance to alleviate the
suffering of thousands of the displaced Somali population.

7. Note that delays and prevarications of the international
community in its response to repeated calls and appeals by
IGAD, the African Union, and the United Nations to strengthen
and provide the necessary support to AMISOM had a direct
consequence and impact on the political as well as security
developments in Somalia.

8. Note further the increased incidents of piracy along the
Somali coastline and welcomes the United Nations Security
Council resolutions 1816 and 1838 authorizing the use of
force to combat the vice.

9. Commend the Governments of Uganda and Burundi for
contributing troops to AMISOM and the Government of Ethiopia
for deploying its troops to Somalia under bilateral
arrangement with the TFG, and salutes the AMISOM and Ethiopia
troops for their commitment to fulfill their tasks under
difficult conditions.

10. Welcome the agreement signed in Djibouti on the 26th
October 2008 between the TFG and the Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) on the Implementation of
cessation of armed confrontation.

11. Welcome further the agreement on the formation of a unity
government of Somalia based on the principle of 4.5, and an
inclusive Parliament.

12. Urge the TFG and the ARS to implement fully and in good
faith the Agreement reached in Djibouti on 26th October 2008
and call upon the Members of TFP o endorse the same without
any delay.

13. Decide that the TFIs shall implement the following as per
the following timelines:

i) Appoint a Cabinet on the basis of the previous resolution
of Parliament of 11October 2008, within 15 days of the
issuance of this Declaration.

ii) Establish a Joint Security Committee (JSC) and its
subcommittees as stipulated in the Djibouti Agreement that
shall be operational effective 10November 2008 but not later
than 25 November 2008.

iii) Establish the Banadir administration as stipulated in
the Addis Ababa Roadmap within 15 days of issuance of this
Declaration.

iv) Finalize the drafting of the Somali Constitution, enact
electoral and parties law within 6 months of the issuance of
this Declaration.

v) The issue of the extension of the transitional period
might be considered in accordance with the provisions of the
Transitional Federal Charter (TFC) on the basis of the
progress made on the ground.

vi) Submit progress reports of the implementation (of the
above decisions) every 2 months to the IGAD Council of
Ministers meeting, which shall review the progress made.

vii) IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government to meet
every 6 months to review the progress made in the
implementation of these decisions.

14. Decide to establish mechanism headed by a Facilitator to
help monitor the implementation of the above decisions and
report to the IGAD Council of Ministers and the Assembly of

NAIROBI 00002520 004 OF 004


Heads of State and Government on the progress
made.

15. Decide also that there must be a coordination mechanism
among the IGAD states in the area of institutional and
capacity building.

16. Decide further that the anchor of all the efforts in
relation to Somalia must be IGAD.

17. Reiterate that in default of the above, the IGAD Assembly
shall meet and review its options, as it will not be business
as usual.

18. Urge the United Nations to take expeditious measures to
fulfill its share of responsibilities as stipulated in the
Djibouti Agreement signed on 19th August, 2008 and its
modalities of Implementation as agreed upon by the parties,
in particular the request to cover the financial needs of the
10,000 strong police force starting from 5th November 2008.

19. Recommend to the Parties and the Special Representative
of the Secretary General of the United Nations for Somalia to
be flexible in terms of modalities and timelines of
implementation of the Djibouti Agreement(s) by the parties.

20. Thank the government and the people of Kenya for hosting
the Extraordinary Assembly of Heads of State and Government.

21. Decide to remain seized of the matter.

Done at Nairobi Kenya, on 29th day of October in the year 2008

(signed)

H.E. Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman of IGAD

H.E. Ismael Ornar Guelleh, President of the Republic of
Djibouti

H.E. Mwai Kibaki, President of the Republic of Kenya

H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) of Somalia

H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1sf Vice President of the Republic
of Sudan

H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of
Uganda

End communique text.
RANNEBERGER

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