Cablegate: Somalia - Anti-Opposition Alliances Appear to Gain Momentum

VZCZCXRO5386
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0052/01 0120544
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 120543Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0388
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEILB/NCTC WASHINGTON DC
RUEPADJ/CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000052

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - ANTI-OPPOSITION ALLIANCES APPEAR TO GAIN MOMENTUM
IN SOMALI REGIONS

REF: 09 NAIROBI 2032; 09 NAIROBI 2545

1. (SBU) Summary: On January 10 pro-TFG clan and Ahlu Sunnah Wal
Jama'a (ASWJ) forces wrested control of much of Beledweyne town
from Hisbul Islam (HI) and al-Shabaab. By late evening, following
day-long sporadic but fierce fighting, clan and ASWJ-allied militia
brought much of Beledweyne under their control. The alliance on
January 11 thwarted an early morning HI counterattack. (Note:
Control of Beledweyne changed hands between clan militia
sympathetic to the TFG and opposition forces a dozen times in 2009.
Hiraan and Hiraan-based TFG leaders in recent months have stepped
up communication with the north Galgaduud faction of ASWJ (ref a).
End note.) In addition, various clan and local efforts to
militarily confront al-Shabaab in Galgaduud and Lower Juba appear
to be gaining momentum against the backdrop of rifts within
al-Shabaab (ref b). End Summary.

2. (SBU) On January 10, a clan and ASWJ alliance attacked
Beledweyne, the capital of Hiraan region, which had been under
Hisbul Islam control since an early December HI defeat of
TFG-forces there. (Note: The alliance comprises mostly
Hawiye/Hawaadle sub-clan militia, largely sympathetic to the TFG.
The Hawaadle militia has long fought against HI and AS in Hiraan
and now appears willing to borrow the ASWJ name in order to receive
logistical support from the powerful north Galgaduud Ayr-clan
faction of ASWJ. In clan terms, this largely represents an alliance
between the Hawaadle and Ayr subclans of the Hawiye. End note.)

3. (SBU) Sheikh Bashir Elmi, the Hawaadle spokesman in Hiraan, told
us the alliance launched an early morning January 10 attack on HI
positions at Beledweyne airstrip on the outskirts of the town. By
late Sunday evening, following sporadic but fierce day-long
fighting, the alliance had taken control of all of the town except
for the western district of Howlwadag into which HI fighters had
retreated. (Note: Howlwadag district is a predominantly
Hawiye/Galje'el area. Many Galje'el have allied with al-Shabaab and
Hisbul Islam in order to resist perceived Hawadle subclan
domination of Beledweyne. The Hawaadle clan, larger than the
Galje'el and generally better educated, dominates business in
Beledweyne and has long-occupied the role of senior Hiraan clan.
End Note.) As of January 11 the alliance reportedly retained
control of most of Beledweyne.

4. (SBU) Contacts tell us that Hiraan leader Yusuf Ahmed Hagar
"Dabageed" has taken up the mantle of chairman of the ASWJ security
committee for Hiraan and has criticized the TFG for not providing
enough support to the region. (Note: "Dabageed" is from the
Hawaadle clan and was formerly a Hiraan governor under
then-President Abdullahi Yusuf. End note.)

5. (SBU) In addition, various clan and local efforts to militarily
confront al-Shabaab in Galgaduud and Lower Juba appear to be
gaining momentum against the backdrop of rifts within al-Shabaab
(ref b). Overnight clashes on January 10 were reported in the Lower
Juba border town of Dhobley after local clan militias attacked
al-Shabaab positions. Our contacts tell us that al-Shabaab
suffered significant loses. In addition, tension remains high in
Galgaduud region following January 2 ASWJ-al-Shabaab clashes in
Dhusamarebb. Our contacts tell us additional clashes are expected
in the region as the two groups rearm.

6. (SBU) Comment: We think the apparent uptick in anti-Shabaab and
anti-HI efforts is a positive development and is partially the
result of and a contributing factor to internal opposition
divisions. However, "Dabageed's" criticisms of the TFG's and ASWJ's
apparent efforts to cast all anti-opposition efforts in Hiraan as

NAIROBI 00000052 002 OF 002

its work, should serve as a cautionary tale to the TFG. We are
encouraging the TFG to continue outreach to Hiraan and ASWJ and to
hone its political messaging. We are also encouraging local and
regional leaders to continue their efforts to politically and
militarily confront al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islam.
RANNEBERGER

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