Cablegate: A Summary of Recent Estimates of Sendero

P 302311Z MAY 91
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8453
INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
AMEMBASSY QUITO
USAFSO HOWARD AFB
USCINCSO QUARRY HTS PM
USMISSION GENEVA 1744
DIA WASHDC

S E C R E T LIMA 07182

DIA FOR OA-5/OS-1D/DB-612/JSI-4B/DB-3C1

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: A SUMMARY OF RECENT ESTIMATES OF SENDERO
LUMINOSO STRENGTH

REF: 90 LIMA 12787

1. (S/NF/NC/ORCO...

id: 457
date: 5/30/1991 23:11
refid: 91LIMA7182
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: SECRET
destination: 90LIMA12787
header:
P 302311Z MAY 91
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8453
INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
AMEMBASSY QUITO
USAFSO HOWARD AFB
USCINCSO QUARRY HTS PM
USMISSION GENEVA 1744
DIA WASHDC

----------------- header ends ----------------

S E C R E T LIMA 07182

DIA FOR OA-5/OS-1D/DB-612/JSI-4B/DB-3C1

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: A SUMMARY OF RECENT ESTIMATES OF SENDERO
LUMINOSO STRENGTH

REF: 90 LIMA 12787

1. (S/NF/NC/ORCON) IN THE PAST 10 MONTHS EMBASSY
LIMA HAS REPORTED THREE ESTIMATES OF THE CADRE AND
SUPPORT STRENGTH OF SENDERO LUMINOSO. FOR EASE OF
COMPARISON WE REPEAT HERE THE DATA FROM THE THREE
SOURCES.

- SOURCE 1 SOURCE 2 SOURCE 3
--------------------------------------------- ---------
PEOPLE'S
ARMY (EGP) 2,000 1,133 2,984

LOCAL
MILITIA 3,000 - 5,000 4,125 2,059

FRONT GROUPS N/A 3,111
AND 17,000
SYMPATHIZERS N/A 21,000

--------------------------------------------- ---------

2. (S/NF/NC/ORCON) SOURCE ONE IS A RETIRED NAVAL
OFFICER, NOW LEGAL ADVISOR TO THE NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE SERVICE. IN FEBRUARY 1990 HE POLLED THE
THREE MILITARY AND THE POLICE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES
ON THEIR ESTIMATES OF SL STRENGTH AND DERIVED WHAT HE
JUDGED TO BE AN APPROXIMATE AVERAGE OF THE FOUR
SERVICE ESTIMATES. SOURCE TWO IS AN 1991 MILITARY
ESTIMATE REPORTED BY PICA (HDL-16640). SOURCE THREE
IS A JANUARY 1991 POLICE SUMMARY OF SL DATA SEIZED
DURING RECENT RAIDS AGAINST SL SAFE HOUSES. THE
POLICE CLAIM THEIR NUMBERS REPRESENT SL'S ESTIMATE OF
ITS OWN STRENGTH.

3. (C) SOURCE THREE INCLUDES TWO OTHER CATEGORIES
NOT SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIED IN SOURCES ONE AND TWO.
-
--------------------------------------------- ---------

POLITICAL LEADERSHIP 1,000 (MANY IN PRISON)

THE "E.G.P" - SOLDIERS UNDER
PERMANENT ARMS 2,500

MILITIA - TRAINED BUT NOT UNDER
PERMANENT ARMS, PEOPLES
COMMITTEES 2,000

NON-ARMED SUPPORTERS, FRONT
GROUPS, ETC. 3,000 (MANY IN PRISON)

SYMPATHIZERS AND "INFLUENCED
MASSES: UNIVERSITY STUDENTS
LIBERATED VILLAGERS, ETC. 20,000 - 60,000

--------------------------------------------- ---------

6. (C) WE ARE CURRENTLY COMPILING COMPARABLE DATA ON
THE TUPAC AMARU REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT. AS THE
ANTI-TERRORISM POLICE TELL US, THIS IS MUCH HARDER
DATA TO COME BY BECAUSE THE POLICE BEGAN WORK ON THE
"MRTA PROBLEM" ONLY UNDER THE FUJIMORI GOVERNMENT.
WE HOPE TO SEND ALONG SOME ESTIMATES OF MRTA CADRE
STRENGTH IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

QUAINTON

=======================CABLE ENDS============================

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