Cablegate: Unemployment Up Sharply in July, but Rise Offest

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

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E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST
BY DECLINE IN SHORT-TIME LABOR

REF: A) BERLIN 2801, B) BONN 22310

SUMMARY
/------

1. OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW GERMAN STATES ROSE A
SHARP 27 PERCENT BETWEEN JUNE AND JULY TO A TOTAL OF
1,068,000, OR ROUGHLY 12.1 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE.
STILL, THE INCREASE DID NOT FULFILL SOME DIRE PREDICTIONS
BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE EXPIRATION ON JUNE 30
OF "NO-FIRINGS" PROVISIONS IN KEY LABOR CONTRACTS AND OF
SEVERANCE PROGRAMS FOR FORMER GDR GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES. A
BROADER UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATOR, NAMELY THE TOTAL NUMBER OF
EASTERN GERMAN WORKERS EITHER UNEMPLOYED, WORKING ON A
"SHORT-TIME" BASIS, OR ENROLLED IN GOVERNMENT "MAKE-WORK"
PROGRAMS, REMAINED BASICALLY STABLE AT ONE-THIRD OF THE
WORKFORCE. MEANWHILE, THE GAP BETWEEN MALE UNEMPLOYMENT
(9.8 PERCENT) AND FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT (14.5 PERCENT)
WIDENED FURTHER. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, FEDERAL LABOR
OFFICE HEAD FRANKE, IN A BERLIN PRESS INTERVIEW, SUGGESTED
THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW STATES COULD REACH 1.5
MILLION BY YEAR'S END (OVER 16 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE),
WITH TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW STATES FALLING FROM THE
1989 GDR LEVEL OF APPROXIMATELY 9 MILLION TO ABOUT SIX
MILLION. END SUMMARY.
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PAGE 03 BERLIN 03009 01 OF 06 151359Z

EXPECTED SHARP HIKE IN UNEMPLOYMENT ...
/--------------------------------------

2. AFTER TWO MONTHS OF ALMOST STABLE UNEMPLOYMENT
FIGURES, JULY PRODUCED THE EXPECTED SUBSTANTIAL
END-OF-QUARTER HIKE. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FIGURES FROM
THE BERLIN OFFICE OF THE FEDERAL LABOR AGENCY (RESPONSIBLE
FOR COMPILING STATISTICS ON EASTERN BERLIN AND THE FIVE
NEW STATES), UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE FROM 843,000 (9.5 PERCENT)
IN JUNE TO 1,069,000 (12.1 PERCENT) IN JULY, AN ABSOLUTE
INCREASE OF 226,000. THE TOTAL NUMBER OF WORKERS INVOLVED
IN "SHORT-TIME" WORK PROGRAMS FELL BY 283,000, FROM
1,909,000 IN JUNE TO 1,615,000 IN JULY. THE OVERVIEW
TABLE BELOW SETS FORTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND SHORT-TIME WORKER
STATISTICS FOR MAY THROUGH JULY 1991 (SHORT-TIME WORKER
FIGURES FOR JULY REPRESENT MID-MONTH LEVELS).

TABLE 1
JULY UNEMPLOYMENT AND SHORT-TIME WORK
/-------------------------------------

MAY JUN JUL

UNEMPLOYMENT 842,285 842,504 1,068,639
--PCT OF WORK FORCE 9.5 9.5 12.1
--PCT MONTHLY INCREASE 0.6 0.0 26.8

SHORT TIME WORKERS 1,968,477 1,898,937 1,615,893
--PCT OF WORK FORCE 22.1 21.4 18.2
--PCT MONTHLY INCREASE (2.1) (3.0) (14.9)
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PAGE 04 BERLIN 03009 01 OF 06 151359Z

NOTE: SOME OF THE JUNE FIGURES USED IN THIS REPORT ARE
RECENT UPDATES. PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVES.

3. GEOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN UNEMPLOYMENT BECAME LESS
DRAMATIC IN JULY. THE LONG-TIME LEADER OF THE LIST,
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN, HAD THE SECOND SMALLEST INCREASE
THIS MONTH (PLUS 2.0 PERCENT) AND WAS REPLACE BY EAST
BERLIN IN THE NUMBER-ONE POSITION. EAST BERLIN PROBABLY
OWED ITS INCREASE OF 18,000 IN UNEMPLOYMENT TO ITS
DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE OF GDR-ERA GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES
WHO WERE FINALLY TERMINATED AT THE END OF JUNE. HOWEVER,
EAST BERLIN MAINTAINED ITS EXTREMELY LOW PERCENTAGE OF

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E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST

SHORT-TIME WORKERS AND WAS, THEREFORE, STILL IN THE BEST
OVERALL POSITION OF ALL EASTERN STATES. SAXONY CONTINUED
TO ENJOY THE LOWEST LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT, ALTHOUGH IT
SUFFERED THE HIGHEST NET INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT OF ALL
(PLUS 2.8 PERCENT). SAXONY-ANHALT AND THURINGIA REMAINED
CLOSE TO AVERAGE IN UNEMPLOYMENT BUT LED THE LIST IN
SHORT-TIME WORK; BRANDENBURG COMBINED AVERAGE
UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES WITH A LOW SHORT-TIME WORKER TOTAL.

TABLE 2
UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE
/--------------------
MAY PCT JUN PCT JUL PCT
MECKLENBURG-
VORPOMMERN 124,149 12.1 122,738 11.9 143,635 13.9
BRANDENBURG 130,171 9.5 130,199 9.5 165,097 12.1
SAXONY-ANHALT 153,778 9.5 156,797 9.7 197,747 12.2
SAXONY 218,484 8.3 214,889 8.1 288,198 10.9
THURINGIA 135,752 9.3 136,453 9.4 174,254 12.0
EAST BERLIN 79,951 11.2 81,428 11.4 99,708 14.0

TOTAL 842,285 9.5 842,504 9.5 1,068,639 12.1

... OFFSET BY A DROP IN SHORT-TIME LABOR
/---------------------------------------

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PAGE 03 BERLIN 03009 02 OF 06 151400Z
4. IN JULY, THE NUMBER OF SHORT-TIME WORKERS IN THE NEW
STATES SHRANK BY A RECORD 283,000. THE IMPLICIT AMOUNT
OF UNEMPLOYMENT HIDDEN IN THE SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAM --
I.E., UNEMPLOYMENT CALCULATED USING THE PERCENTAGE OF
TIME DURING WHICH EMPLOYEES WERE NOT WORKING -- DROPPED
FROM 1,078,000, (12.3 PERCENT) TO 906,000 (10.3
PERCENT). THE DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SHORT-TIMERS
CLEARLY OUTPACED THE INCREASE IN THE RANKS OF THE NEWLY
JOBLESS IN EVERY STATE. BRANDENBURG REGISTERED THE BEST
RATIO: 52,000 WORKERS ENDED SHORT-TIME WORK WITH ONLY
35,000 ENTERING UNEMPLOYMENT.

TABLE 3
SHORT-TIME WORKERS
/-----------------
- MAY PCT JUN PCT JUL PCT
MECKLENBURG-
VORPOMMERN 225,557 22.0 214,580 20.8 188,734 18.3
BRANDENBURG 296,242 21.6 290,671 21.2 238,815 17.5
SAXONY-ANH. 369,898 22.8 368,139 22.8 318,827 19.7
SAXONY 632,555 23.8 586,366 22.1 497,299 18.8
THURINGIA 354,958 24.3 350,689 24.2 304,347 21.0
EAST BERLIN 89,267 12.5 88,492 12.4 67,871 9.5

TOTAL 1,968,477 22.1 1,898,937 21.4 1,615,893 18.3

5. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR, THE NUMBER OF
SHORT-TIME WORKERS WORKING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR
REGULAR WORK SCHEDULES SHRANK FASTER THAN THE NUMBER OF
SHORT-TIMERS WITH LONGER WORKING HOURS.

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PAGE 04 BERLIN 03009 02 OF 06 151400Z
TABLE 4
SHORT-TIME WORKERS:
ACTUAL TIME ON THE JOB
/---------------------
PCT CHG
WORKING MAY JUN JUL JUN-JUL

LESS THAN 1/2 TIME 1,129,566 1,119,158 914,648 (18.3)
1/2 TIME AND MORE 838,911 779,779 701,245 (10.1)

NOTE: PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE

6. IN MANY INDUSTRIAL SECTORS, SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAMS

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E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST

COVER OVER 50 PERCENT OF WORKERS. THE TABLE BELOW
OUTLINES USAGE IN JULY OF SHORT-TIME WORK IN SPECIFIC
INDUSTRIES. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE
RELATIVE FATE OF SPECIFIC INDUSTRIES, GIVEN THAT
UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON THE CHANGES OF TOTAL WORKFORCE
IN THE INDUSTRIES IS UNAVAILABLE, IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
DECLINES IN SHORT-TIME WORK ARE CLOSE TO OR HIGHER THAN
THE OVERALL INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE INDUSTRIES
LISTED.

TABLE 5
SHORT-TIME WORKERS
IN SELECTED INDUSTRIAL SECTORS:
/------------------------------

PCT CHG
MAY JUN JUL JUN-JUL
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
- MINING 86,279 86,240 76,803 (10.9)
- CHEMICALS 115,657 109,739 90,787 (17.3)
- METAL WORKING 32,291 31,191 26,855 (13.9)
- METAL FORMING 62,274 58,542 45,597 (22.1)
- MACHINE BUILDING 208,404 200,126 162,859 (18.6)
- AUTOMOTIVE 62,307 62,080 49,751 (19.9)
- SHIP BUILDING 9,085 8,557 7,655 (10.5)
- ELECTRO-TECH 205,662 203,319 153,184 (24.7)
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PAGE 03 BERLIN 03009 03 OF 06 151401Z
- METALLURGY 39,486 35,842 31,126 (13.2)
- WOOD-WORKING 38,295 38,005 30,438 (19.9)
- TEXTILES 124,530 118,624 105,455 (11.1)
- CONSTRUCTION 112,761 103,220 87,453 (15.3)

NOTE: PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE

GOVERNMENT MAKE-WORK PROGRAMS
/----------------------------

7. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S TEMPORARY JOB
PROGRAM (ARBEITSBESCHAFFUNGSMASSNAHMEN - ABM) CONTINUED
TO PROGRESS IN JULY. SOME 210,000 POSITIONS WERE FILLED
BY THE END OF JULY, WHICH REPRESENTED 2.4 PERCENT OF THE
TOTAL WORKFORCE AND A 42 PERCENT INCREASE OVER THE
RESPECTIVE JUNE FIGURE. THE USAGE OF ABM IS NOW COMING
CLOSE TO THE FUNDING TARGET OF 280,000 POSITIONS, A
NOTABLE CONTRIBUTION TO THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO KEEP
UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES DOWN.

TABLE 6
USAGE OF ABM MEASURES
/--------------------

MAY JUN JUL TARGET

POSITIONS FILLED 113,599 148,235 209,907 280,000
MONTHLY INCR., PCT 29.5 30.5 41.6
PCT OF TOTAL WORKFORCE 1.3 1.6 2.4 3.2

8. USAGE OF THE ABM PROGRAM WAS MOST PRONOUNCED IN
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PAGE 04 BERLIN 03009 03 OF 06 151401Z
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN (2,9 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE),
AND LEAST DEVELOPED IN EAST BERLIN (1.0 PERCENT), WHERE
PROBABLY MORE ALTERNATIVES ARE AVAILABLE THAN IN THE
OTHER NEW STATES.

TABLE 7
ABM MEASURES BY STATES
/---------------------
MAY PCT JUN PCT JUL PCT
MECKLENBURG-
VORPOMMERN 20,402 2.0 24,267 2.4 30,147 2.9
BRANDENBURG 19,385 1.4 26,497 1.9 34,368 2.5
SAXONY-ANH. 20,969 1.3 26,998 1.7 39,713 2.5

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E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST

SAXONY 27,979 1.1 39,631 1.5 59,724 2.3
THURINGIA 21,866 1.5 268959 1.9 38,764 2.7
EAST BERLIN 2,998 0.4 3,947 0.6 7,191 1.0

TOTAL 113,599 1.3 148,235 1.7 209,907 2.4

GOVERNMENT SPONSORED RETRAINING
/------------------------------

9. THE GOVERNMENT-FINANCED RETRAINING PROGRAM IS
CERTAINLY AMONG THE MORE MINOR MEASURES AGAINST
UNEMPLOYMENT BOTH IN TERMS OF FUNDING AND PARTICIPATION.
HOWEVER, IN THE LONG TERM IT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT'S GOAL OF
PROVIDING THE UN- AND UNDEREMPLOYED WITH THE SKILLS
NECESSARY TO COMPETE IN THE CHANGING LABOR MARKET OF THE
FUTURE. THE PROGRAM HAS GROWN IN POPULARITY, WITH THE
NUMBER OF NEW RETRAINING CONTRACTS RISING FROM 81,000 IN
JUNE TO 96,000 IN JULY. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE NO FIGURES
AVAILABLE FOR THE TOTAL OF WORKERS ENROLLED IN RETRAINING
PROGRAMS AT ANY ONE TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE
PROGRESS TOWARD THE OFFICIAL TARGET OF 350,000
RETRAINEES. THE GOVERNMENT'S CURRENT EFFORT IN CREATING
NEW CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK ORGANIZATIONS
(ARBEITSFOERDERUNGS- GESELLSCHAFTEN, ABS), DESIGNED TO
COORDINATE THE CREATION OF ABM AS WELL AS OF RETRAINING
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PAGE 03 BERLIN 03009 04 OF 06 151401Z
MEASURES, MAY HELP TO IMPROVE THESE STATISTICS.

TABLE 8
USAGE OF RETRAINING MEASURES
/---------------------------

MAY JUN JUL TARGET

NEW TRAINING CONTRACTS 69,508 81,263 95,614 350,000
PCT MONTHLY INCR (4.8) 6.9 17.7
PCT OF WORKFORCE 0.8 0.9 1.1 4.0

NOTE: PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE

NUMBER OF WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT STABILIZING
/-------------------------------------------- ---------

10. TO OBTAIN A BROADER PICTURE OF THE OVERALL SITUATION
IN THE EMPLOYMENT MARKET IN THE NEW STATES, IT IS USEFUL
TO COMBINE FIGURES FROM THE UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME
WORK, AND ABM STATISTICS, FOLLOWING THE ASSUMPTION THAT
ABM AND SHORT-TIME WORK ARE SIMPLY TWO MORE FACETS OF
UNEMPLOYMENT. ABM IN THE NEW STATES IS A PROGRAM
SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP THE UNEMPLOYED OFF THE
DOLE, WHILE SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAMS KEEP IDLE WORKERS
WITH THEIR EMPLOYERS EVEN IF THE REASONS FOR THE WORK
SHORTAGE ARE NOT TEMPORARY BUT STRUCTURAL. IN THE
CURRENT SITUATION, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHORT-TIME WORKERS AND ABM WORKERS WILL LOSE THEIR JOBS
WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FUNDING FOR THE PROGRAMS RUNS OUT.

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PAGE 04 BERLIN 03009 04 OF 06 151401Z
12. THE TABLES BELOW OUTLINE THE COMBINED NUMBERS OF
WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME WORK AND ABM
MEASURES. FOR EACH NEW STATE, IT APPEARS THAT TOTAL
NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED BASICALLY STABLE SINCE APRIL, WITH
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN, BRANDENBURG AND SAXONY ACTUALLY
SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER RECENT MONTHS.

TABLE 9

WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT
/-------------------------------

APRIL MAY JUNE JULY

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DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER
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E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST

MECKLENBURG-
VORPOMMERN 370,060 370,018 361,585 362,516
BRANDENBURG 438,020 445,798 447,367 438,280
SAXONY-ANHALT 545,992 544,645 551,934 556,287
SAXONY 897,855 879,018 840,886 845,221
THURINGIA 517,490 512,576 514,037 517,365
EAST BERLIN 171,312 172,219 173,867 174,770

TOTAL 2,940,729 2,924361 2,889,676 2,894,439

TABLE 10

WORKERS AFFECTED - PERCENT OF WORKFORCE
/--------------------------------------

APRIL MAY JUNE JULY

MECKLENBURG-
VORPOMMERN 36.1 36.1 35.1 35.1
BRANDENBURG 32.0 32.5 32.6 32.1
SAXONY-ANHALT 33.8 33.6 34.1 34.3
SAXONY 34.1 33.4 31.7 32.0
THURINGIA 35.4 35.1 35.4 35.6
EAST BERLIN 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.5

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TOTAL 33.4 33.0 32.6 32.8

JOB VACANCIES INCREASING
/-----------------------

12. FIGURES FROM THE EMPLOYMENT OFFICES' JOB REFERRAL
STATISTICS SUGGEST A POSITIVE TREND IN THE LABOR MARKET.
SINCE FEBRUARY, THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF JOB VACANCIES REGISTERED WITH THE LABOR
OFFICES, WITH THE JULY TOTAL OF 113,100 ALMOST FOUR TIMES
THE COMPARABLE FEBRUARY OF 29,600. IN JULY, LABOR
OFFICES PLACED 95,900 PERSONS IN NEW JOBS, DOUBLE THE MAY
PLACEMENT RATE. HOWEVER, AS IN MAY, ROUGHLY TWO-THIRDS
OF THESE NEW POSITIONS WERE IN ABM JOBS (IN JULY, 61,700
OR 64 PERCENT OF NEW JOB PLACEMENTS WERE IN ABM JOB
PROGRAMS).

OTHER FACTORS TEMPERING UNEMPLOYMENT
/-----------------------------------

13. MEANWHILE, THE WORKFORCE CONTINUES TO SHRINK. THE
FEDERAL LABOR OFFICE REPORTED THAT (AS OF JULY) SOME
549,900 OLDER PERSONS HAD LEFT THE RANKS OF THE WORKING
POPULATION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SPECIAL EARLY RETIREMENT
PROGRAMS FOR UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE OVER 55 YEARS OLD. THESE
NUMBERS, IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGHLY 700,000 PERSONS WHO
HAVE MOVED WESTWARD SINCE 1989, IMPLY AN ACTUAL WORK
FORCE IN EASTERN GERMANY OF WELL UNDER 8.0 MILLION (THE
OFFICIAL NUMBER IS STILL 8.87 MILLION). WE NOTE COMMENTS
BY FEDERAL LABOR OFFICE CHAIRMAN FRANKE, IN AN INTERVIEW
IN THE AUGUST 12 EDITION OF "DER TAGESSPIEGEL,"
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PAGE 04 BERLIN 03009 05 OF 06 151402Z
SUGGESTING THAT THE LABOR FORCE WILL HAVE DECLINED TO
THIS RANGE BY DECEMBER, WITH SOME SIX MILLION PEOPLE
EMPLOYED AND ANOTHER 1.5 MILLION ON THE JOBLESS ROLLS.

DEMOGRAPHICS: WOMEN MORE LIKELY TO BE JOBLESS
/--------------------------------------------

14. THE JULY HIKE IN UNEMPLOYMENT WAS ESPECIALLY HARSH
ON WOMEN. WHILE MALE UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE FROM 8.0 TO 9.8
PERCENT (UP 1.8 PERCENT), FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT WENT UP
FROM 11.2 TO 14.5 PERCENT (A JUMP OF 3.3 PERCENT).
UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG WOMEN IS NOW ALMOST 50 PERCENT HIGHER
THAN AMONG MEN. SOME INCIDENTAL MATERIAL FROM THE

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USIA WASHDC 1886
DEPTREAS WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 06 OF 06 BERLIN 03009

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY

TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER

USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON

USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER
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PAGE 02 BERLIN 03009 06 OF 06 151403Z

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST

EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS INDICATES THAT WOMEN BELOW 25 YEARS
OF AGE ARE LESS HARD HIT (13 PERCENT ABOVE MALE
UNEMPLOYMENT) AND THAT THE DIFFERENCE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
LEVELS INCREASES WITH AGE.

COMMENT
/------

15. THE JULY UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES WERE PERHAPS MOST
NOTABLE FOR THE FACT THAT THE INCREASE IN JOBLESSNESS WAS
LESS THAN IT COULD HAVE BEEN: A RISE OF "ONLY" 226,000.
THIS WAS LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE 770,000
STILL-EMPLOYED WORKERS REGISTERED WITH THE FEDERAL
EMPLOYMENT OFFICE FOR JOB REFERRAL, IN THE EXPECTATION,
IN THE MAJORITY OF CASES, OF TERMINATION SOONER OR
LATER. WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND EXPIRED SHORT-TIME
CONTRACTS AND A COMPARABLE NUMBER RELEASED FROM THE
LONG-TERM SEPARATION PLAN FOR EX-GDR GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES
("WARTESCHLEIFE"), THE INCREASE OF UNEMPLOYMENT COULD, IN
FACT, HAVE BEEN DRAMATICALLY HIGHER.

16. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL SOURCES, INCLUDING A SURVEY OF
BERLIN AND BRANDENBURG COMPANIES, INDICATE THAT THE
ACTUAL NUMBER OF TERMINATIONS AT THE END OF JUNE WAS
ABOUT ONE-THIRD LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY PLANNED. ACCORDING
TO PRESS ANALYSIS, MANY COMPANIES MAY HAVE DECIDED TO
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WAIT FOR THE NEWLY PLANNED CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK
CORPORATIONS (ARBEITSFOERDERUNGSGESELLSCHAFTEN) TO COME
INTO THEIR OWN, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR AN EASIER
TRANSITION FROM SHORT-TIME WORK TO ABM AND RETRAINING FOR
LARGE NUMBERS OF EMPLOYEES. UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR,
THE INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED TO
BE MODEST. IN HIS "DER TAGESSPIEGEL" INTERVIEW, FEDERAL
LABOR OFFICE CHAIRMAN FRANKE SPOKE OF A 12 PERCENT
AVERAGE LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN 1991 (WITH THE
IMPLICATION THAT, GIVEN LOWER FIGURES IN THE FIRST HALF
YEAR, UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE
OVER 14 PERCENT) WITH JOBLESS TOTALS REACHING 1.5 MILLION
OR 16.9 PERCENT BY DECEMBER. STILL, THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE MATCHED BY A DECREASE
IN SHORT-TIME WORK, MEANING THAT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF
WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME WORK, OR ABM
WOULD REMAIN MORE-OR-LESS STABLE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
GOVERNMENT DECISIONS ON A POSSIBLE FURTHER EXTENSION OF
THE REMAINING SHORT-TIME PROGRAMS AND ON PROGRESS MADE BY
THE CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK CORPORATIONS. LOOKING TOWARD
NEXT YEAR, JANUARY TERMINATIONS COULD AGAIN BE
SUBSTANTIAL, SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE, WITH A GENERAL
TURN-AROUND IN THE LABOR MARKET NOT EXPECTED BEFORE LATER
IN 1992, LAGGING SOMEWHAT ANY GENERAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY
IN THE NEW STATES. MILES

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