Cablegate: Last Gasp From Kaduna: Politics in Northern

R 100753Z MAR 94
FM AMCONSUL KADUNA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4047
AMEMBASSY LAGOS
INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KADUNA 00284

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

LONDON FOR MCKINLEY; PARIS FOR PERLOW
LAGOS PASS TO ABUJA

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: KPRP PGOV NI
SUBJECT: LAST GASP FROM KADUNA: POLITICS IN NORTHERN
NIGERIA

1. THIS IS THE SECOND OF FOUR END-OF-TOUR, END-OF-POST
CABLES FROM KADUNA, GIVING AN OVERVIEW OF NORTHERN
NIGERIA. THE OTHER THREE WILL DEAL RESPECTIVELY WITH
THE COMMERCIAL AND ECONOMIC CLIMATE, THE CULTURAL
SCENE, AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES AND CONDITIONS. THEY ARE
MEANT FOR ORIENTATION OF OFFICERS ARRIVING IN THE
SUMMER OF 1994 TO TAKE UP REPORTING POSTS IN ABUJA, AS
WELL AS TO FULFILL POST REPORTING PLAN REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUMMARY: POLITICAL TRADITIONS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA,
AS ESEWHERE, STRETCH BACK TO THE PRE-INDEPENDENCE
PERIOD. UNLIKE OTHER SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, HOWEVER,
THE LARGER-THAN-LIFE FIGURE OF THE FIRST PREMIER OF
NORTHERN NIGERIA, THE SARDAUNA OF SOKOTO, CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER POLITICAL FIGURES AND ORGANIZATIONS IN THE
NORTH. EQUALLY, NORTHERN POLITICS ARE PULLED IN
CONFLICTING DIRECTIONS BY THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE TRADITIONAL RULERS AND THE HABITS OF DEFERENCE TO
ELDERS AND REFUSAL TO SPEAK ILL OF THOSE IN AUTHORITY.
THE NORTH IS HOME TO TWO STRONG TRADITIONS -- MOSLEM
CONSERVATISM AND A POPULIST RADICALISM. IF ADDITION,
GENERATIONAL FISSURES APPEARED IN THE ABORTED
TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY WHICH COULD PROVE AN EVEN
STRONGER CHALLENGE TO TRADITION AND THE ELDERS IF THE
PROGRAM EVER GETS ON TRACK AGAIN. ONCE POLITICS RESUME
OPENLY, THERE ARE SEVERAL PERSONS AND GROUPS READY TO
PICK UP WHERE IBB LEFT THEM LAST JUNE 23. END SUMMARY.

A LITTLE HISTORY
----------------

3. IN THE RUN-UP TO INDEPENDENCE IN THE 1950S, THE
NORTHERN REGION SPAWNED THREE DISTINCT POLITICAL
MOVEMENTS WHICH ARE STILL LARGELY MIRRORED IN CURRENT
POLITICS. THE ONE THAT WAS ULTIMATELY VICTORIOUS IN
THE NORTHERN REGIONAL ELECTIONS AND THE FORERUNNER FOR
THE NATIONAL PARTY OF NIGERIA (NPN) OF THE SECOND
REPUBLIC AND THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONVENTION (NRC)
OF THE SECOND-AND-A-HALF REPUBLIC, WAS THE NPC,
NORTHERN PEOPLES CONGRESS. THIS PARTY WAS THE HOME OF
THE TRADITIONAL, HAUSA AND FULANI CONSERVATIVES AND
STILL PROVIDES THE MODEL FOR SOUTHERN ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT
"NORTHERN POLITICAL DOMINATION."

4. THERE WERE, HOWEVER, TWO OTHER POLITICAL MOVEMENTS
WITH CHARISMATIC LEADERS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA. ONE WAS
THE RADICAL POPULIST NORTHERN ELEMENTS PROGRESSIVE
UNION (NEPU) WHOSE LEADER WAS AMINU KANO. THIS GROUP
WAS CENTERED IN KANO WHICH WAS AND IS STILL TODAY HOME
TO POLITICAL CURRENTS DIRECTLY AT ODDS WITH THE
NORTHERN "ESTABLISHMENT." THIS STRAIN OF POLITICAL
THOUGHT ACCOUNTED FOR THE STRONG VOTE FOR ABIOLA IN
KANO ON JUNE 12, AS WELL AS FOR THE NEARLY EVEN SPLIT
BETWEEN NRC AND SDP IN THE CIVILIAN STATE GOVERNMENTS
OF KANO, KADUNA, AND KATSINA THAT HAVE JUST BEEN
ABOLISHED. NEPU WAS THE FOREFATHER OF THE PEOPLES
REDEMPTION PARTY (PRP) OF THE SECOND REPUBLIC (ALSO
HEADED BY AMINU KANO), BUT ITS HEIRS SPLIT IN KANO AND
KADUNA BETWEEN THE SDP (PEOPLES' SOLIDARITY PARTY (PSP)
FACTION) AND NRC WHEN THE PARTIES WERE ORGANIZED BY
BABANGIDA IN 1989. MALLAM AMINU KANO DIED IN 1983, BUT
IS STILL WIDELY REVERED BY NORTHERNERS WHO SAW HIM AS
AN INCORRUPTIBLE POLITICIAN OF SIMPLE TASTES AND
SPARTAN LIFESTYLE, QUITE AT ODDS WITH THE NIGERIAN NORM.

5. THE THIRD POLITICAL MOVEMENT WAS THE UNITED MIDDLE
BELT CONGRESS LED BY JOSEPH TARKA (A TIV FROM CURRENT
BENUE STATE). TARKA PRESSED STRONGLY FOR A FOURTH
REGION COMPRISING THE MIDDLE BELT MINORITIES (NOWADAYS
FOUND IN TARABA, BENUE, KOGI, PLATEAU, NIGER, KWARA,
AND SOUTHERN KADUNA STATES) BUT LOST OUT. WE HAVE BEEN
TOLD HIS PLAN WAS SHOT DOWN LARGELY AT THE INSTANCE OF
ANTHONY ENAHORO (NOW THE HEAD OF THE MOVEMENT FOR
NATIONAL REDEMPTION), AN INDIGENE OF EDO STATE. OF
COURSE, NOT LONG AFTER INDEPENDENCE, ENAHORO MANAGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CREATION OF A FOURTH REGION FOR HIS
OWN ETHNIC GROUP, AN EVENT WHICH HAS NOT BEEN FORGOTTEN
IN THESE PARTS. TARKA WAS ELECTED TO THE SECOND
REPUBLIC SENATE BUT DIED IN 198O. NEVERTHELESS, THE
MIDDLE BELT CONSIDERS ITSELF TO HAVE A SEPARATE
POLITICAL EXISTENCE FROM THE FAR NORTH (WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF NIGER STATE), AND VOTED FAIRLY
STRONGLY FOR THE NIGERIA PEOPLES' PARTY (NPP) (OR, IN
BORNO AND GONGOLA, THE GREAT NIGERIA PEOPLES' PARTY
(GNPP)) IN 1979 AND SDP IN THE 1991-93 ELECTIONS.

THE SARDAUNA
------------

6. AT INDEPENDENCE, THE NORTHERN REGION GOVERNMENT WAS
CAPTURED BY THE NPC, WHICH ELECTED SIR AHMADU BELLO,
THE SARDAUNA OF SOKOTO, AS PREMIER. GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE LAND MASS OF THE NORTHERN REGION WAS AT LEAST
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND THE DEVOLUTION OF POWER
FROM THE CENTER TO THE REGIONS UNDER THE FIRST
CONSTITUTION, THE SARDAUNA WAS AN IMMENSELY POWERFUL
FIGURE. HE WAS A PRINCE OF THE SOKOTO RULING FAMILY
BUT, REPORTEDLY, WAS REGARDED BY THE OPEN RULING SULTAN
WITH SOME SUSPICION, AND SO THE SULTAN WAS HAPPY TO
HAVE HIM OUT OF SOKOTO AND IN KADUNA.

7. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO DOUBT THAT THE SARDAUNA WAS
A FIGURE LARGER THAN LIFE. HE WAS, TO BEGIN WITH,
PHYSICALLY IMPOSING. BUT, FOR THOSE NORTHERN ELDERS
WHO SERVED IN HIS GOVERNMENT AND ARE STILL ACTIVE (ISA
KAITA, LIMAN CIROMA, AHMED TALIB, YAHAYA GUSAU,
AMBASSADOR JOLLY TANKO YUSUF, MAITAMA SULE, AND MANY
OTHERS), HIS INFLUENCE IS STILL PALPABLE. HE IS
REGARDED AS INCORRUPTIBLE, DEEPLY CONCERNED TO MOVE THE
NORTH FROM ITS CONDITION OF BACKWARDNESS, AND DEEPLY
RELIGIOUS. HIS DEATH AT THE HANDS OF THE PERPETRATORS
OF THE FIRST 1966 COUP IS CONSIDERED A MARTYRDOM AND
THE HOUSE HE OCCUPIED IS A NORTHERN SHRINE (NOW THE
HEADQUARTERS OF AREWA HOUSE, A RESEARCH AND
DOCUMENTATION CENTER FOR NORTHERN NIGERIA). HIS
PORTRAIT IS STILL HAWKED AT EVERY MAJOR GATHERING AND
FUND LAUNCHING IN THE NORTH.

8. THOSE WHO REMEMBER THE SARDAUNA RECOUNT THE STORIES
OF HIS VISITS THROUGHOUT THE NORTH, EVEN TO REMOTE
AREAS ON THE MAMBILLA PLATEAU AND OTHER SETTLEMENTS OFF
THE BEATEN TRACK. THEY WILL MENTION THE JOY WITH WHICH
THE LOCAL INHABITANTS GREETED HIM, AND THOSE WHO SERVED
IN HIS GOVERNMENT WILL EMPHASIZE THAT MOSLEM,
CHRISTIAN, AND PAGAN ALIKE GAVE HIM THEIR ALLEGIANCE.
THE SARDAUNA'S PROGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE NORTH INVOLVED
DISTRIBUTION OF CLOTH AND SMALL HOUSEHOLD WARES, AS
WELL AS COMMITMENTS TO CONSTRUCT SCHOOLS AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE ENTIRE COMMUNITY. FROM MORE
IMPARTIAL SOURCES, WE LEARN THAT THE GOODIES WERE
ACTUALLY DISTRIBUTED TO THOSE VILLAGES AND PERSONS WHO
CONVERTED TO ISLAM; EVEN VILLAGES WHICH HAD BEEN MOSLEM
FOR SOME TIME CLAIMED TO HAVE RECENTLY CONVERTED IN
ORDER TO COLLECT THE "DASH." ONE CHRISTIAN CONTACT OF
THE CONSULATE WHO HAILS FROM LOKOJA REMEMBERS SXWNDIN
WITH HIS SCHOOL CLASS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD TO
WELCOME THU SARDAUNA TO KOGI DISTRICT. WHEN, AFTER A
LONG DELAY, THE PREMIER ACTUALLY APPEARED, HE RESPONDED
TO THE WELCOME BY REMARKING AUDIBLY WITHIN OUR
CONTACT'S HEARING, "IS THERE SUCH A PLACE AS KOGI
DISTRICT?" OUR CONTACT HAS NEVER FORGOTTEN THE
IMPRESSION THIS MADE ON HIM.

9. THIS HISTORY HAS SOME RELEVANCE TO POLITICS TODAY
SINCE MUCH OF THE SARDAUNA'S STYLE CARRIES OVER. THE
CIVILIAN GOVERNORS OF THE ABORTEDHZHIRD REPUBLIC FROM
THE NORTHERN STATES CONSIDERED THEIR STATES "MOSLEM,"
AS THOUGH IT WAS NORMAL TO GIVE STATE MONEY TO MOSLEM
FUND RAISINGS. THE BABANGIDA HABIT OF FINANCING
GOVERNMENT BY "PERSONAL" DONATION MAY ALSO REFLECT THE
SARDAUNA'S STYLE. WE OBSERVE IN THE NORTH LITTLE
UNDERSTANDING OF THE NECESSITY FOR A GOVERNMENT TO BE
NEUTRAL IN MATTERS OF RELIGION, EXCEPT FOR CHRISTIANS
LIVING IN PREDOMINATELY MOSLEM AREAS. IN SOME STATES,
SUCH AS KADUNA OR PLATEAU, THE DEPUTY GOVERNORS WERE
ADHERENTS OF THE OPPOSITE RELIGION AND SOME EFFORT WAS
MADE TO MAKE EQUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO BOTH RELIGIOUS OR
TO SEND EQUAL NUMBERS OF PERSONS ON BOTH THE HAJJ AND
THE "CHRISTIAN PILGRIMAGE" TO ROME AND JERUSALEM.

THE THIRD REPUBLIC
------------------

10. BY FORCING THE NASCENT POLITICAL PARTIES OF THE
THIRD REPUBLIC INTO TWO COALITIMNS CALLA NRC AND SDP,
BABANGIDA'S TRANSITION DID NOT CHANGE POLITICS IN THE
NORTH IN ANY FUNDAMENTAL WAY. THE TRADITIONAL, FAR
NORTH GENERALLY FELL INTO THE NRC, WHILE THE
"PROGRESSIVEE NORTH (BTRNO, YOBE, KANO CITY, AND THE
MIDDLE BELT) WERE STRONG FOR THE SDP. EACH PARTY MADE
ITS TRADITIONAL ALLIANCES WITH THE GROUPS IN THE SOUTH
-- THE "ROGRESSIVES" WITH THE YORUBA AND THE
"TRADITIONALISTS" WITH THE EAST.

11. WHAT WAS PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE
WAS THE EFFORT ON THE PART OF THE BABANGIDA THEORISTS
TO ELIMINATE THE "OLDBREED" FROM THE PLAYING FIELD AND
ENCOURAGE THE EMERGENCE OF "NEWBREED" POLITICIANS.
SINCE THE BAMNING EVEN FROM POLITICAL ACTIVITY AND
SUPPORT OF CANDIDATES ON THE PART OF THE OLDBREED
REMAINED IN FORCE THROUGH THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS
OF DECEMBER 1991, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, GOVERNORS, AND
STATE HOUSES OF ASSEMBLY ELECTED WERE COMPOSED ALMOST
ENTIRELY OF YOUNGER, POLITICALLY INEXPERIENCED PEOPLE.
A NUMBER OF NORTHERN OBSERVERS HAVE REMARKED THAT, IN
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY AT LEAST, THIS DID NOT SERVE
THE PUBLIC WELL. THE NORTHERNERS AT THE CONSTITUTIONAL
CONFERENCE HAD, FOR EXAMPLE, ARGUED AGAINST THE
EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTIVE OFFICE, SINCE
THIS WOULD ELIMINATE A NUMBER OF RESPECTED LOCAL
LEADERS WHO HAD LITTLE SCHOOLING. NORTHERNERS MAINTAIN
THAT THE SOUTHERN REPRESENTATIVES PUSHED THIS THROUGH,
AND THAT THE SOUTH HAD MUCH BETTER LOCAL GOVERNMENT
CHAIRMEN ON BALANCE THUNHLE NORHEP
CZIOLDERPDMOEUN
OF TH COMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH ARE FAR MORE LIKELY TO
HAVE FINISHED SECONDARY SCHOOL.

12. THE RECENT ABORTED TRANSITION ALSO ADVANCED
FISSURES ALONG GENERATIONAL LINES. ACCORDING TO THE
OLD NPC/NPN/NRC TRADITION, THE PARTY ELDERS ARE
SUPPOSED TO CONVENE AND DECIDE WHO THE CANDIDATE WILL
BE. THE FITS AND STARTS OF BANNING AND UNBANNING
OHOROUGHLYHDIQNUPTED THIS PROCESS THE LAST TPME
AROUND. WHEN THE OLDBREED WERE UNBANNED, ADAMU CIROMA
WAS ABLE TO MAKE A BID FOR THE NRC NOMINATION AND
EVERYONE EXPECTED UMARU SHINKAFI, HIS JUNIOR, WOULD
YIELD THE FLOOR. SHINKAFI REFUSED TO DO THIS. AFTER
THE WHOLE "BAND OF 23" WAS BANNED AND THE PRIMARIES OF
'92 WERE CANCELLED, OPTION A4 WAS ADOPTED. HERE AGAIN,
THE NEWBREED LIKE BASHIR TOFA SEIZED THE ADVANTAGE
OFFERED OF ELIMINATING RIVALS AT THE EARLIEST STAGES BY
SIZABLE PAYOFFS. TOFA LOPPED OFF THE CHALLENGE IN KANO
STATE FROM AMINU WALI AND IN KADUNA FROM GOWON AND, IN
SO DOING, DEEPLY OFFENDED THE "ELDERS." THEIR REFUSAL
TO CAMPAIGN FOR HIM OR, INDEED, TO VOTE FOR HIM, GOES A
LONG WAY TO EXPLAIN THE MASSIVE SUPPORT FOR ABIOLA IN
PLACES LIKE KANO AND BAUCHI.

13. QUITE A NUMBER OF NORTHERN SDP ADHERENTS NOW
OPENLY CHALLENGE WHAT THEY SEE AS THE DEAD HAND OF THE
TRADITIONAL RULERS AND THE OLDER POLITICAL GENERATION.
THEY REFUSE TO SEE WHY THEY SHOULD AUTOMATICALLY BOW TO
THE DECISIONS OF THE ELDERS. MANY CONTEMPTUOUSLY
DISMISS THE EFFORTS OF THE TRADITIONAL RULERS TO PULL
STRINGS BEHIND THE SCENES. SO FAR, THESE JUNIORS ARE
STILL SWIMMING AGAINST THE TIDE, BUT THEY DO REPRESENT
THE FORCES OF THE FUTURE. THE DEAD SARDAUNA AND THE
NORTHERN TRADITION HE INSTITUTIONALIZED IS FADING FROM
THE MEMORIES OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION. THE "NEWBREED"
DO, IN THIS SENSE AT LEAST, REPRESENT A MORE GENUINELY
DEMOCRATIC AND LESS FEUDAL ORGANIZATION OF POLITICS.

THE ROAD AHEAD
--------------

14. ONCE POLITICS RETURN OPENLY TO NIGERIA, THE NORTH
IS POISED TO REENTER THE FRAY. SHORTLY AFTER THE
ANNULLMENT OF THE JUNE 12 ELECTION, VARIOUS MEETINGS OF
NORTHERN POLITICIANS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PRESS.
ONE, SPEARHEADED BY FORMER SECRETARY TO THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT (UNDER OBASANJO), ALHAJI LIMAN CIROMA,
COALESCED AROUND THE EFFORT TO FORM A "NATIONAL
GOVERNMENT" TO TAKE OVER FROM BABANGIDA. THE ORIGINAL
IDEA OF THIS GROUP WAS TO FORM A GOVERNMENT MADE UP OF
POLITICIANS OF ALL STRIPES; WHAT THEY GOT WAS
SHONEKAN'S INTERIM NATIONAL GOVERNMENT WHICH FELL SHORT
IN MANY IMPORTANT WAYS OF WHAT THE GROUW HAD HOPEDTO
FASHON. NEVERTHELESS, ADAMU CIROMA, BAM,:- 57174,
AMINU SALEH,DALHATU TAFIDA, AND S.B. DANIYAN IN THE
CURRENT CABINET ARE MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS
GROUP. LIMAN CIROMA CONTINUES TBSPSXVA INLUEZAAL
ROLE BEHID THE SCENES, AS WITNESS HIS AHMADU BELLO
MEMORIAL LECTURE AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE AREWA
HOUSE WORKSHOP ON "THE STATE OF THE NATION: WHICH WAY
FORWARD?" CONCERNING THIS LATTER IN-GATHERING OF THE
NORTHERN (AMD SOME SOUTHERN) POLITICAL ELITE, THE FIRST
PLAN TO ORGANIZE IT OPENLY AS A PREPARATORY SEMINAR FOR
THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE WAS LATER CHANGED TO PLACE IT
UNDER THE AUSPICES OF AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY. THIS
GAVE IT A THIN VEIL OF LEGITIMACY CONSIDERING THE
CONTINUING PROHIBITION ON POLITICAL MEETINGS AND
ORGANIZATIONS.

15. ALTHOUGH, IN OUR OPINION, THE GROUP AROUND LIMAN
CIROMA REPRESENTS THE GENUINE OLD GUARD NORTHERN
POLITICOS, ANOTHER GROUP BEGAN MEETING DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1993, CALLING ITSELF THE "NORTHERN ELDERS."
THIS WAS SPEARHEADED BY SUCH PERSONS AS ABDULRAHMAN
OKENE AND MAITAMA SULE WHO GAVE A CERTAIN COVER, AS
OLDBREED FORMER CIVIL SERVANTS, TO THE EFFORTS OF THE
NORTHERN GOVERNORS TO COOPT THE LIMAN CIROMA GROUP.
THIS GROUP MADE AN EFFORT TO ORGANIZE A CALL FOR IBB TO
REMAIN IN OFFICE BEYOND AUGUST 27 WHICH, AS WE NOW
KNOW, CAME TO NAUGHT. THOSE IN THE CURRENT CABINET
MOST LIKELY ALIGNED WITH THIS GROUP ARE BASHIR DALHATU
AND POSSIBLY WADA NAS WHO COMES FROM THE SHINKAFI WING
OF THE NRC. MOST RECENTLY, HOWEVER, THE GROUP HELD A
MEETING ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREWA HOUSE WORKSHIP AND
ISSUED A DECLARATION CALLING FOR NATIONAL UNITY AND
SUPPORTING THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE.

16. IF THE DEFUNCT NRC POLITICOS HAVE NOT YET PULLED
THEMSELVES TOGETHER, THE SDP IS AN EVEN STRANGER
SITUATION. FOR ONE THING, THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
WON THE NON-EVENT ON JUNE 12. FOR ANOTHER, BABA GANA
KINGIBE, REPRESENTING ONE WING OF THE NORTHERN SDP, IS
IN THE INNER CIRCLE OF THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT.
ABUBAKAR RIMI AND SOLOMON LAR, MEMBERS OF THE CABINET,
REPRESENT RESPECTIVELY THE RADICAL KANO TRADITION AND
THE MIDDLE BELT CHRISTIANS.

17. AND THEN THERE IS LT. GEN. SHEHU MUSA YAR'ADUA
(RTD). HE HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE
ABACHA REGIME, NOR DOES HE CONSIDER IT CAME TO POWER
LEGITIMATELY. RECENTLY, HIS STAR WAS GIVEN AN EVEN
GREATER SHINE BY HIS SEEMINGLY POINTLESS DETENTION FOR
FIVE DAYS. HE HAS PLENTY OF MONEY AND GREAT AMBITION.
HE VERY LIKELY ALSO HAS A GOOD DEAL OF ABILITY TO RUN
THE COUNTRY. IRONICALLY, HIS MAJOR DRAWBACK IS THE
PIS FROM THE NORTH. MANY NORTHERNERS, INCLUDING PEOPLE
LIKE LIMAN CIROMA, BELIEVE THAT, WHATEVER DECISIONS ARE
MADE OR NOT MADE ON ROTATIONAL OFFICES AND ZONING AT
THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE, IT WILL BE A GREAT MISTAKE IF
THE NEXT ELECTED PRESIDENT IS FROM THE NORTH. BUT
YAR'ADUA WANTS IT AND HE HAS MANY OF THE REQUIREMENTS
-- MONEY, ORGANIZATION, CLEAN HANDS IN THE CURRENT MESS
-- TO CLAIM A RIGHT TO RULE.

CONCLUSION
----------

18. NORTHERN NIGERIAN POLITICS ARE PROBABLY IN A STATE
OF MORE PROFOUND CHANGE THAN POLITICAL ARRANGEMENTS IN
THE SOUTH. THE HEAVY HUND OF TRADITION HAS PERSISTED
LONGER HERE, CAUSING INTERGENERATIONAL RESTIVENESS.
THE FAULT LINES OF THE OLD NORTHERN REGION -- BOTH
RELIGION AND TRIBE -- STILL EXIST AND IN MANY WAYS CUT
DEEPER FOLLOWING EIGHT YEARS OF IBB'S EFFORTS TO
EXACERBATE THEM. MOST NORTHERNERS BELIEVE THAT, SHOULD
PUSH COME TO SHOVE AT THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE AND THE
NATION START TO SPLIT UP, THE MIDDLE BELT WILL THROW IN
ITS LOT WITH THE FAR NORTH AND "PROGRESSIVE"
NORTHEAST. WE WOULDN'T WANT TO BE PRESSED ON THIS AT
THE MOMENT. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT THE NORTH HAS NO
INTENTION OF GIVING UP ON NATIONAL UNITY. NOR DO
MAINLINE NORTHERN POLITICIANS INTEND, WE BELIEVE, TO
TAKE "NON-NEGOTIABLE" STANDS THAT WILL GIVE THE
SOUTHERNERS AMMUNITION.

WEINLAND

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